The United States and Russian negotiators have secretly hammered out a plan for ending the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Axios first reported the deal, and the Financial Times has since confirmed it.
According to reports, a U.S. team led by President Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, and a Russian team led by Putin adviser Kirill Dmitriev have reached an agreement to end the war. Dmitriev came on the scene after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov crapped the bed, so to speak, in his dealings with Secretary of State Marco Rubio; see Foreign Policy Observers Are Playing 'Where's Waldo' With Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov – RedState. The plan is allegedly a "28-point" plan because the "20-point" plan in Gaza is working out so well.
These are the terms that will be presented to Ukraine and the EU as a fait accompli, as neither had any role in the negotiations. In a nutshell, under this deal, Russia will get pretty much what it would have gotten had it arrived in Kiev in 72 hours.
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 19, 2025
Financial Times confirms Axios’ reporting about a new Russia-Ukraine peace deal proposal being in the works between Russia & USA.
Demands on Ukraine
- Cut its Army in half
- Give up certain weapons
- Hand over the rest of the Donetsk region held by Ukraine now pic.twitter.com/FZBeOxyxJu
Ukraine Gives Up Land
Under the deal, Ukraine would be forced to hand over to the Russians the 14.5% of the Donbas region of which it currently retains possession. That area, which currently contains Ukraine's major fortification line, would supposedly become a "demilitarized zone," though how that will be enforced is not spelled out.
International Recognition of Russian Gains
The EU would be required to recognize Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territory.
Russia Not Required to Renounce Claims
In October 2022, Putin announced that Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson were a part of Russia in perpetuity and not subject to negotiation; see Putin’s Illegal Annexation of Ukrainian Territory Marks the Beginning of a War Without a Perceivable End – RedState. No mention of this annexation is in the peace deal. Unless it is repudiated, it will serve as the basis for another invasion in a year or two.
Undetermined Russian Withdrawals
While Ukraine would be required to withdraw from specified areas it currently occupies, Russia supposedly agreed to some withdrawals from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, "subject to negotiations," but the areas, process, and timeline for these withdrawals are conveniently not spelled out.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Reduced
The Ukrainian army would be reduced to 40 percent of its current size.
Limits on Ukrainian Weapons
Ukraine would be prohibited from possessing weapons capable of reaching Moscow and St. Petersburg. Ukraine currently has drones and homegrown missiles with that range.
U.S. Security Guarantees
In exchange for these concessions, Ukraine would get unspecified U.S. security guarantees. I'd only point out that U.S. security guarantees were in effect when Crimea was annexed and when Ukraine was invaded. It also has security guarantees from Russia.
No Foreign Troops Allowed in Ukraine
The brigades of foreign volunteers would be disbanded, and no foreign troops would be allowed in Ukraine. This would require all training of Ukrainian forces to be done outside Ukraine. Countries that use military personnel to monitor the transfer of weapons and munitions to Ukraine would no longer be able to do that.
No Foreign Military Aircraft in Ukraine
As there aren't foreign-operated military aircraft in Ukraine, I suspect this is aimed at the sale or transfer of foreign military aircraft to Ukraine.
Next Steps
The next step is for Witkoff to sell Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the wholesale dismembering of his country, the neutering of his armed forces, and the reduction of Ukraine from a sovereign nation to a Russian satrapy.
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