Putin's War, Week 112. Ukraine Funding Passes and ATACMS Hit Crimea

By streiff | 11:53 AM on April 20, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
Ukrainian soldiers on patrol. CREDIT: Image by senivpetro on Freepik.

The single biggest story of the week was the logjam finally breaking on the stalled Ukraine aid package. Speaker Johnson released the bill's text on Tuesday and pledged to bring it to a vote on Saturday. 

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BACKGROUND: House Freedom Caucus in Uproar Over Ukraine Funding Bill and Shock Move to Stop Vacate-the-Chair Votes

Much of the drama has a vague Shakespearean tone, and by Shakespearean, I'm referring to Macbeth, Act 5, Scene 5. Ukraine aid is popular in the GOP caucus outside of part of the Freedom Caucus and with Democrats. No matter how many "motions to vacate the chair" are hurled at Johnson, it is doubtful that any of them get past the "motion to table" phase. 

RedState has posted the text of the foreign aid bills.

BACKGROUND: READ: Text of Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan Bills Released, and That Ukraine 'Loan' Provision Is Quite Curious

Besides the funding, the bill's most important part is the requirement that the Biden national security apparatus spell out a strategy for a Ukrainian "victory" in this war. According to Politico, the Defense Department has weaponry and ammunition ready to ship when the bill passes.

Another theme that popped up in several places this week is that Ukraine is on the cusp of battlefield defeat because of a lack of resources. A good example is this article in Politico: Ukraine is heading for defeat. It is difficult to evaluate these articles without access to data and the front lines. They may be true, but they may not. My gut is they are part of the Ukrainian lobbying campaign to move the stalled foreign aid bill in Congress. I'll pay a lot more attention to them if they persist after the aid bill passes and if the Russians show they can put together an offensive.

RELATED: $96 Billion Foreign Aid Bill Clears Last Hurdle, Vote Set for Saturday

 Here are some of my past updates. 

Putin's War, Week 110.

Putin's War, Week 109. Russian Offensive Jammed Up While Ukraine Funding Logjam Breaks

Putin's War, Week 108. Moscow Under Attack and Congress's Struggles Continue

Putin's War, Week 107. Macron Goes for the Jugular, Johnson Goes for Broke, and Scholz Goes for a Drink

Putin's War, Week 106. Putin Faces Reelection, Nuland is Out, and the Czechs Find Artillery Ammunition 

Putin's War, Week 105. Sweden Prepares to Be Heard

Putin's War, Week 104. Second Anniversary of the 72-Hour Special Military Operation

Putin's War, Week 103. Avdiivka Abandoned

Putin's War, Week 102. Zaluzhny Is Out, Syrsky Is In, and the Ukraine Aid Bill Advances

For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Politico-Strategic Level

Russian Media Calls Speaker Mike Johnson "Our Johnson"

Outside the unintended double entendre, it is obvious the Russians are using Speaker Johnson's unconscionable delay of the foreign aid bill for Ukraine as a way of attempting to discredit him.

Germany Shops for Air Defense Systems

The Ukraine war is the first war in which air defense systems play such a critical role as they are now. Without an adequate number of systems at all levels of sophistication, Ukraine's civilian population and civilian and military infrastructure are subject to daily attack. The last time US ground forces were subjected to air attack was in April 1953. Because of that, the number of air defense systems was allowed to wither even though the systems field are very good. Air defense was something the Air Force did.

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The Financial Times reports that Germany is soliciting dozens of countries with Western air defense systems to transfer them to Ukraine.

 Germany has written to dozens of countries including Gulf Arab states to plead for more air defence systems for Ukraine, saying Kyiv needed urgent help to protect its cities, troops and critical infrastructure from the “murderous onslaught” of Russian missiles. 

In a letter to other Nato members, a copy of which was obtained by the Financial Times and confirmed by Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock and defence minister Boris Pistorius said they were launching a global initiative aimed at plugging the gaps in Ukraine’s air defences.

GRU Sabotage Team Busted

I'm always a little hesitant about stories like this, but it seems solidly sourced. If true, it would mark the first time Russia has targeted manufacturing or transportation facilities supporting Ukraine. If true, more of these teams are operating.

Poles Break an Assassination Plot

Working on a tip from Ukrainian intelligence, the Poles have arrested a Polish man working as a Russian agent who was doing leg work for a prospective assassination attempt.

Operational Level

The situation remains largely unchanged from last week. Both sides made positional gains. The large-scale, relatively speaking, Russian attacks all along the line of contact have abated. As I mentioned in the last update, the Russians seem to have settled on one primary objective: the town of Chasiv Yar to the west of Bakhmut.

Combat Operations

More Russian Commanders Fired

Russia has fired several commanders who failed to eliminate that pesky bridgehead at Krynky in Occupied Kherson. The Russians do this occasionally, but somehow, the guys who get fired all seem to reappear in different roles.

Dzhankoy Air Base Hit By Missiles

The Ukrainian military carried out what is thought to be an ATACMS strike on the Russian air base at Dzhankoy in Occupied Crimea.

The first video shows the missile launches with the impact spliced at the end. The attack reportedly destroyed four S-400 missile launchers, three radars, a Nebo-M airspace surveillance unit, and a command post. A stockpile of S-400 missiles went along for the ride.

This is the second such attack on Crimean air bases since the US released ATACMS to Ukraine.

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BACKGROUND:

Biden White House Poised to Send ATACMS Tactical Ballistic Missile to Ukraine 

Russia Claims US ATACMS Missiles Hit Two Airbases in Occupied Ukraine 

Over-the-Horizon Radar Struck by Drone

A Russian Container 296B over-the-horizon warning radar in Kovylino, Russia, some 400 miles from Ukraine, was hit by a Ukrainian drone attack. The attack involved a drone based on a small single-engine aircraft.

There is no reliable damage estimate.

I posted about the conversion of single-engine propeller-driven planes into attack drones previously.

BACKGROUND: Putin's War, Week 110.

Striking at this radar, which provides visibility well into Ukraine, is probably related to the arrival of F-16 fighters and a desire to strip the Russians of warning of their activity.

HMMWV Raid

This is one of the more interesting combat videos to surface in a while. Two Ukrainian HMMWVs raid Russian positions in Krasnohorivka, Donetsk. Two of my favorite themes are very evident. The battlefield is basically empty, and the purpose of the attack is to produce casualties and not to gain real estate. The vehicles charge up to the buildings under attack and lay down covering fire. Troops dismount and toss satchel charges through windows, remount, and unass the area. There is a minor industrial accident involving one HMMWV during egress, but it seems to make it okay.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Don't Run, You'll Just Die Tired

Russian troops attempt to evade an FPV suicide drone.

Don't Run, You'll Just Die Tired, Part Deux

A Ukrainian FPV drone is in hot pursuit of a Chinese-made Desertcross ATV (increasingly referred to as a Humm-Xi) when the unexpected happens.

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FA a Lot, FO a Lot

Who Are You Trying to Convince? Me? Or You?

This gives flashbacks to the Chechen TikTok commandos of the early days of the war. Given enough drugs or alcohol, it's an entirely plausible operational concept. To recap, we are going to pull men out of the line and not only train them to ride motorcycles at high speed across the broken country; we're going to teach them to fire left-handed while on the move. And they are going to steer drones while on the move. This works because the enemy isn't expecting motorcycles, and we don't allow the enemy to use artillery.

Right.

Northern Front

Kharkiv

Kupyansk-Kreminna

The Russians made some positional gains in this area, but significantly, we also saw the Ukrainians regain some territory they had lost. What seems definitive at this point is that contrary to the November-December narrative, there is no mass of 100K Russian troops waiting to attack.

Donbas

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

There is no doubt that the main Russian effort is focused on the town of Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the Russian high command had tasked the local command in Donetsk with taking Chasiv Yar by May 9, Victory Day on the Russian calendar. That may or may not be accurate. It is just as likely that Syrskyi is announcing an objective the Russians can't meet so he can declare victory on May 10. Absent a general collapse of the Ukrainian front lines, it is safe to say that the Russian Army will not take Chasiv Yar by May 9.

Russian units have pushed into the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, but their ability to hold these incursions is unclear.

To me, the big question for Chasiv Yar is the same as for Bakhmut. Taking the city does move the frontline forward, but all it does is set up another meatgrinder in the next city. The current lines of communication do not support an operational-level breakthrough. It is hard to see how the losses the Russians will suffer taking another Bakhmut with a much weaker army will be offset by occupying a podunk town for a victory celebration. 

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Avdiivka

The Russian push to achieve a breakthrough in the former Avdiivka Salient seems to have abated.

This has been the most successful Russian offensive operation since the capture of Bakhmut. About 7 miles have been gained. 

BACKGROUND: Putin's War, Week 103. Avdiivka Abandoned

Yet it also shows the limit of Russian offensive capability. The Russians could not put together a sustained offensive that resulted in a breakthrough in territory much more suited for an operationally significant ramble through the rear area of the Ukrainian front line. This is a time series video composed of Russian losses outside Novomykhailiivka to give you an idea of the magnitude of Russian losses. This town is located at the southern end of the Russian-occupied area shown in the above map, near the east end of the reservoir. See Putin's War, Week 110, for its location.

American Defector Missing

American defector Russell Bentley has gone missing in Russian-Occupied Donetsk. Evidence indicates that he was "disappeared" during an encounter with Russian soldiers. Compare and contrast the lack of interest by the Putin-bros over the death of this propagandist and the outrage over the death of another American expat and fan of Russia, Gonzalvo Lira. If the Russians kill you, those people don't care.

This is the story circulating among Russian milbloggers.

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

The front in this area remains stable. Offensive action by both sides continues to result in positional gains but nothing significant.

At Robotyne, there was at least one instance of the Russians using a modified Ural cargo truck as an assault vehicle. Russian military cargo vehicles have been in short supply for about 18 months. The decision to take two of these vehicles and convert them to "assault trucks" was not taken lightly. It speaks to the growing shortage of infantry fighting vehicles in the Russian Army and the Russian units in lower priority fronts being stripped of equipment to support the attacks at Avdiivka and Bakhmut.

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Kherson

The frontlines in this area remain unchanged. As I noted earlier in the post, the Russian tactical commanders here have been relieved for lack of progress.

Rear Areas

Russia

Communications Center Hit by Drone Attack

What's Next

The task ahead for the Ukrainians is to stop the incremental Russian advance in several places along the line of contact. Though these advances are often tactically meaningless and bought at great price, they create a public narrative of an inevitable Russian victory. Even when trading space for time and force preservation, as was done at Avdiivka, retreats don't build morale even when you are mauling the attacking force. 

A lot of positive things are in place for the Ukrainians. The military supply problem has been kicked down the road by about six months. However, I'd expect another emergency Defense supplemental to hit Congress just as the 2024 election goes into high gear. The saving grace there is that the anti-Ukraine point of view in the GOP is a minority one. Speaker Johnson has put himself firmly in favor of continued funding, as has former President Trump. The threat to Johnson's speakership is mainly a social media event. Johnson has at least 150 GOP and 200+ Democrat votes to keep him in office. I suspect that when it comes down to nut-cutting time, MTG and friends are going to find themselves strangely alone in attempting their coup.

European monetary and material support is becoming more regular and is growing. What is particularly encouraging is the investment many European states are making in defense infrastructure.

Unspoken in all of this is the quality of Russia's staying power. During the first year of the war, I would have agreed that time was on Russia's side. I think we are beyond that point. The West is taking the Russian threat seriously and beginning to build out its defense infrastructure. There is a lot of evidence accumulating that Russia's industrial base can't keep up with the equipment wastage, particularly in the wear-and-tear on artillery tubes. Some very wild assumptions about Russia's ability to produce artillery ammunition are tossed around. In short, the USSR — and Russia — built a "short war" army. The ability to sustain that army in the field is under a lot of stress and not adapting to the new reality.

As I've said, I don't think Ukraine has the political flexibility to sit out the year and let the Russians attack into prepared positions. But I think we're seeing a strategic dimension develop. Ukraine has carried out deep strikes against Russian airbases, oil refineries, and radar sites. Those drones are becoming more capable, and that trend will increase. The reappearance of ATACMS for the attack on Crimea could make Crimea as inhospitable to Russian airpower as it is to the Russian Navy. Realistically, I think we can expect to see the Kerch Strait Bridge dropped this year and the creation of a whole new set of logistics problems for Russia.

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Russia, I think, is forced to continue trying to bludgeon its way through Ukrainian defenses. I don't see any evidence that Russia is building an army in Ukraine that is capable of anything more than that. The successful reduction of the Avdiivka Salient is the one place that should have been turned into an operational breakout IF Russia had the wherewithal to do so. Politically, I don't think Russia can stop the daily attacks and retool and requip. To motivate his fanbois in the US and Europe, Putin needs a plausible narrative of Russian invincibility. The moment that illusion fades, his allies will disappear and deny they even know the man.

The most likely objective of any Ukrainian offensive this year is to isolate Crimea strategically. This is not a secret.

I think we can expect to see a Ukrainian ground offensive develop in late summer in Western Zaporizhzhia, focused on severing the rail line between Donbas and Kherson. Ukrainian tanks won't need to clean their treads in the Sea of Azov, but they have to get within 40 miles of the rail line to render it useless. The Russians can't hold Crimea if the Kerch Strait Bridge is dropped and the rail line to Russia is cut.

Barring some unforeseen calamity on either side, I think what we're seeing today is what we will continue to see for at least the next sixty days.




Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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