The North American Black Bear (Ursus americanus) is one of the most adaptable, versatile large mammals on the continent. They are found from Florida to Alaska, from Maine to California, in what seem to be ever-increasing numbers. They are smart, they are inquisitive, they do very well around human habitations, and they can (and do) eat almost anything.
And, they are thriving, all across that huge range, possibly in larger numbers than ever.
So, when a hand-wringing report comes out from a media outlet claiming that black bears, of all critters, are in danger from climate change, one can't help but say, "Wait, what?" Fortunately, over at Climate Realism, H. Sterling Burnett has done a sterling job of debunking the claim.
WPLN reporter Caroline Eggers begins the story headlined, “Black bears are threatened by climate change. How can we help?,” by writing, “Black bear encounters are on the rise in Tennessee, and climate change is often a hidden culprit[.]”
The problem with Eggers story is that its headline and lead sentence are woefully misleading. Most of the story’s details are pretty accurate. She notes that before large-scale European occupation and widespread forest clearing, black bears were common across Tennessee. After a sharp decline, bears populations have made a big comeback with an estimated 6,000 bears across the state.
Bear populations are doing so well, they are increasingly being seen in edge communities being developed in formerly wild areas and even in urban areas.
Climate change takes a distant back seat to poor garbage storage when it comes to "black bear encounters," which admittedly can frequently end up badly for humans and bears. But here's where the whole thing gets bear-ly tolerable.
So far, so good, but then the story begins to go off the rails. Eggers notes that rainfall from Hurricane Helene in 2024 caused flooding, knocking down a lot of trees, and then leapt to discuss a current drought in the Great Smoky Mountain national park. Yet neither of these events are historically unique or historically unusual. Flooding and drought, while never the norm, have been common throughout Tennessee’s history, and there is no evidence in the data that hurricanes, droughts, and floods have become more common or severe over time in Tennessee, or in general elsewhere in the United States, as detailed in various Climate at a Glance posts, here, here, and here, for example.
For Tennessee specifically, while rainfall amounts vary regionally across the state, data show no increasing trend in drought numbers or severity since 1895, but rather a modest increase in precipitation. (see the figure, below)
That's all true, but the funny thing is that Eggers claims this has a dramatic effect on Tennessee black bear populations, which are rebounding rather dramatically. These are animals that live in a huge variety of climates: Warm, cold, dry, wet, from the great northern taiga to the swamps of the Everglades, from moist Massachusetts to dry southern California. What are essentially normal variations in rainfall in Tennessee, one of the more hospitable places in the black bear's range, aren't going to make any difference in bear populations. It's just not happening.
Black bears live and thrive almost everywhere in North America. They have few, if any, natural enemies across most of their huge range. They aren't going anywhere.
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It's not enough that the actual climate data debunks the WPLA claims. The biology and natural history of black bears also debunks it. And Tennessee, far from becoming a bad place to be a bear, is actually becoming more welcoming to these beasts.
What’s more, connected forest cover and better precipitation has produced improved ecosystem conditions for bears, including increased animal and plant foods sources, which largely explain Tennessee’s growing bear population.
Since modest warming over the past hasn’t made habitat and ecological conditions worse for bears in Tennessee, but rather has improved such conditions, contributing to a growing population, climate change can’t be “threatening” bear survival, as Eggers claims in her WPLN story.
That's the same over much of North America. The current interglacial period has seen a warming trend ever since the end of the last major glaciation, about 12,000 years ago. That was, in case you hadn't noticed, well before there were any SUVs, coal-fired power plants, or air-conditioners. There have been dips and spikes, like the Little Ice Age, but all in all the trend has been towards a warmer climate, and yes, that will likely continue. There will be ecological changes, as there always have been. These changes will be to the advantage of some species, and to the disadvantage of others, as they always have been.
But for Pete's sake, one of the worst survival strategies for a species is to be over-specialized; for instance, limited to a single food source, like pandas and bamboo. Conversely, one of the best survival strategies for a species is to be versatile. Raccoons, black bears, and humans all have that in common; we are omnivores who can eat a huge variety of foods, who are essentially perambulating garbage disposals. That's a big, big reason why all three species are doing as well as they are - as we are.
So, relax, Tennesseans. Your black bears are doing just fine.
