Pay Close Attention to What Happens in North Carolina Over the Next Two Years

As previously noted, Tuesday was not a great Election Day for North Carolina Republicans, similar to what we saw play out for the GOP in many other parts of the country. We lost our U.S. Senate seat, which was expected, but also lost the state house and, as of this writing, are barely hanging on to control of the state senate, which now hinges on one outstanding senate race that has yet to be called (and on the possibility that we'll see a recount).

Republicans headed into Election Day with a 71R-47D-2U majority in the state house (the two unaffiliated were Democrats who left the party in 2026). As it stands now, post-election, the numbers have flipped to 71D-48R-1U, with the one unaffiliated candidate - who says they won't be caucusing with either party - ousting an incumbent Republican.

On the Senate side, we were 30R-20D, but after the election, that changed to 26R-24D, again, assuming nothing changes in the next week as provisionals, etc are counted and assuming any potential recount wouldn't change the results in any of the close races.

I cannot underscore how important it is that Republicans be able to hold the state senate because talk has already turned to thoughts of forming an "independent" redistricting commission now that Democrats have some power. Democrat Gov. Josh Stein was asked about it after the election, and here were his thoughts:

Stein expresses openness to an independent redistricting commission in lieu of state lawmakers drawing legislative & congressional voting maps: “I absolutely want to get rid of partisan gerrymandering in NC. It would make our ability to serve people substantially better.” #ncpol https://t.co/Zl1elTCN6B

— Bryan Anderson (@BryanRAnderson) November 4, 2026

Leftist groups in North Carolina are already lining up in agreement:

The best path forward for independent redistricting will require a state constitutional amendment in North Carolina, which will require some level of new Republican support in the NC Senate. Next year's lawmakers could begin with this framework: https://t.co/9cpzxFTce5

— Carolina Forward (@ForwardCarolina) November 4, 2026

Now, in reality, Stein would be perfectly fine with Democrats gerrymandering, similar to how Sen.-Elect Roy Cooper (D) was a proponent of and a participant in gerrymandering back when he served in the General Assembly - which was during the time when Democrats had enjoyed over 100 years of control of both houses. But, like Cooper was when he was governor, Stein slickly tries to put a moderate face on the issue because of "the people" - and because he doesn't want to seem like an overly partisan governor, considering the rumors that he's considering a 2028 presidential run.

Making a purportedly independent redistricting commission happen would be a multi-step process, with the first step being the state legislature coming up with the language and approving it to be put on the ballot. If Republicans hold the state senate, the possibility of that happening would be slim, assuming Republicans held the line over concerns that any "independent" commission would have a Democrat tilt and be independent in name only, as we've seen in some other states where these commissions have been put in place.

Which brings me to my next thought: Will Democrats try a flat-out gerrymander over the next two years? One might think they wouldn't, considering what happened Tuesday with the state house and senate races as well as the congressional races, which have seen us go from a 10R-4D makeup to what likely will be a flip of that number (pending possible recounts in the close races).

But it's certainly possible they'll try it, for reasons outlined here by N.C. State political science professor Andrew Taylor:

Three reasons to expect at least big push for new congressional plan in NC in 28. 1. Dems are likely to lose seats they won last night, 2. Plausible deniability regarding problem of mid-decade redistricting and commission take too long, 3. Elias & nat Dems will make it happen.

— Andrew J. Taylor (@ajtfosp) November 5, 2026

"Dems are likely to lose seats they won last night" - that could very well happen in 2028, assuming the 2026 midterm rout was an anomaly that won't be repeated. Remember, most of the congressional seats were "safe" Republican seats that Democrats won anyway in a tsunami midterm. Same goes for the state races. And y'all, here's something missing in the national coverage of the congressional flips we saw here: Several were within just a few thousand votes. A couple, including Rep. Virginia Foxx's (which is likely going to a recount), are within just a few hundred.

In other words, with perhaps a percentage point or two more participation on Election Day, Republicans may not have seen nearly the number of U.S. House and state race flips in the Old North State.

North Carolina is not lost to us. Not by a long shot. 

So Democrats in the state legislature are going to be faced with a dilemma next year: gerrymander to make them more Democrat friendly so as to avoid losing them in the next election cycle, or try the independent redistricting route? Either way, assuming we hold the state senate, the odds of either succeeding would be slim. Something else they risk with a gerrymander attempt will be angering an electorate who will wonder why they're doing it when they won the seats they'd be trying to gerrymander.

And y'all, just for the record, that outstanding state senate race I'm talking about? The Republican incumbent, Sen. Danny Britt (SD24), currently leads by 268 votes, with provisionals yet to be processed:

We have the vote-type breakdown for provisionals in SD-24. 676 (81.6%) of the 828 were cast on election day, 152 (18.4%) were cast during early voting. Sen. Britt (R) won 61.6% of the election day vote. If these votes break roughly in line with that, then it likely will be a decided race. Hamm (D) needs these ballots to break heavily in her favor to hope for a win. #ncpol

— Brendan Higgins (@brendanhigginsX) November 5, 2026

So, as I was saying. We must hold the line, and one way we do that is by holding on to this seat, because if the senate goes 25-25, our Democrat Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt will be the tiebreaker:

One reason to not #ncpol https://t.co/P85hAAFY3Y

— Tyler Voigt (@TylerJVoigt) November 5, 2026

Yes, I know. We shouldn't even be in this position. But we are, and because of that, the battle for 2028 must start now here at the local level. Once they're done licking their wounds over Tuesday, North Carolina Republicans need to immediately get back to work, assess what went wrong and course-correct, so we can begin to undo the damage from 2026 in 2028. 

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