We reported a week ago on how the stage had at long last been set in the New Hampshire Senate race, with four-term Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01), who was endorsed by failed 2024 Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris, winning the nomination for his party, and Trump-backed former Sen. John E. Sununu winning the Republican nomination. Both are vying for the seat currently held by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, who is not running for reelection.
What has made this race so interesting is that, up until late August, it was one that flew under the radar for the most part despite the star power brought to it by the fact that it had a Sununu in the game. It's a name that Granite Staters know well considering that not only is Sununu a former senator, but his brother, Chris, was governor for four terms and a total of eight years (2017-2025). Their dad, John H., was governor from 1983 to 1989.
After two August polls gave Sununu a slight edge in a hypothetical matchup with Pappas, NH state Rep. Sam Farrington (R - District 8), a Sununu supporter, said, "All eyes should be on New Hampshire," and referred to the race at the time as "the most overlooked Senate race."
Suffice it to say that between those polls, Democrats officially hitting the panic button not long after, and the primary coming and going, more eyes are definitely on this contest amid a fierce battle for control of the United States Senate.
It's on Cook Political's radar, too, with them shifting it from "Lean D" to "Toss Up":
New Hampshire voters are willing to split their ballots, like they did for Ayotte in 2024. Pappas has national trends on his side, but the Sununu names goes far in the Granite State. https://t.co/ObqjbUcShB
— Carine Hajjar (@carinemhajjar) September 15, 2026
Despite headwinds against Republicans, there is one Senate race that some in both parties privately concede may be a sleeper offensive opening for the GOP: New Hampshire.
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) September 15, 2026
We move this contest from Lean D -> Toss Up.
Read @JessicaTaylor's analysis.https://t.co/9PuF8Ansqi
From the analysis:
Voters in the Granite State, historically home to the nation’s first presidential primary, are used to splitting their tickets, often favoring Republicans for governor but Democrats in federal contests. But Republicans convinced a member of the most beloved political family in the state to run for Senate — former Sen. John E. Sununu — and both public and private polls show him in a closer-than-expected race with newly-minted Democratic nominee, 1st District Rep. Chris Pappas. Even in a light blue state, the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats.
"Republicans are on pace to have a $20M advantage in the state. Sununu allies have already outspent pro-Pappas groups by almost a 2-1 margin, and Pappas allies are worried their race isn’t capturing the interest of national Democrats enough." - @CookPolitical https://t.co/A74I20xUIs
— NH Journal (@NewHampJournal) September 15, 2026
And as Pappas has previously pointed out, "[Shaheen and Maggie Hassan] are the only two people who have been elected as Democrats to the Senate from New Hampshire in the last half a century."
On a related note, as RedState's Jennifer Oliver O'Connell reported, there's talk of the possibility of a mini-red wave in New Hampshire despite midterm election cycles not always going so well for the party in power in Washington, D.C. I wouldn't rule it out, because I've seen state-level red waves in election years that were otherwise turned out to be good for Democrats nationally.
It happened in North Carolina in 2022, where a red wave locally led to Republicans winning control of the state Supreme Court. It was the second election cycle in a row where the Old North State bucked national trends and put more Republicans in power.
Who was the NCGOP chairman during that time period when there was so much winning? Our current Senate nominee, Michael Whatley.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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