At long last, the general election stage has officially been set in the New Hampshire Senate race, where it will soon be determined who gets to fill the seat being vacated by Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who opted not to run for reelection.
As RedState previously reported, polling trends throughout the primary campaign season consistently showed that Trump-backed former Sen. John E. Sununu would likely win the GOP nomination to take on the probable Democrat nominee, four-term Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01), who was endorsed at the last minute by failed 2024 Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Pappas also consistently polled first among Democrats outside of the most recent poll, which indicated the race was tightening.
Decision Desk has now projected that both Sununu and Pappas have advanced, with Sununu besting the second-place finisher, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, and Pappas defeating socialist favorite and self-described "peace activist" Karishma Manzur.
Decision Desk HQ projects John Sununu wins the NH US Senate Republican Primary#DecisionMade: 8:00 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/ONwfVNbpLM
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) September 9, 2026
Decision Desk HQ projects Chris Pappas wins the NH US Senate Democratic Primary#DecisionMade: 8:00 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/x5z7vC29g6
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) September 9, 2026
Hypothetical general election matchup polling in this race has indicated it will likely be very competitive, with Sununu ahead in the two most recent ones, although within the margin of error.
As we've also reported, Sununu's strong showing so far, along with family name recognition, has caused some New Hampshire Democrats, including Pappas, to hit the panic button:
Mr. Pappas himself is raising the alarm and underscoring the national implications of the race. He put it bluntly in a fund-raising email on Friday morning: “We’re losing.”
[...]
On paper, New Hampshire should be easy for the Democrats to hold onto. Ms. Shaheen and Senator Maggie Hassan, the state’s other Democratic senator, were handily re-elected in 2022 and 2020. Voters there have not elected a Republican to the Senate since Kelly Ayotte, who is now the governor, was elected in 2010. The state has not backed a Republican for president since 2000.
But New Hampshire Democrats — whose main character energy has not ebbed despite being dislodged from their traditional high-profile role as host of the kickoff presidential primary — say the picture is more complicated, particularly with Mr. Sununu in it. Ms. Hassan and Ms. Shaheen faced little-known Republicans in their last races. The last time a Democrat faced a serious Republican contender, when Ms. Ayotte ran for re-election in 2016, Ms. Hassan won by just about 1,000 votes.
To view more detailed results on this race and other New Hampshire primary races, please click here.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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