On September 29, 2025, President Donald Trump pressured Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into accepting his 20‑point peace deal with Hamas. Trump insisted that the IDF immediately halt all military action, even though Hamas had not agreed to the terms. Trump gave Hamas until 6:00 PM on October 5, 2025, to accept the deal or be "hunted down and killed." October 5 came and went; Hamas refused to accept the 20-point peace deal, and they were neither hunted down nor killed.
On October 9, a deal was signed in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, and went into place on October 10. However, it was not Trump's 20-point deal that was signed, as reported in the American and international press. What Hamas agreed to was a six-point phase one deal that neither President Trump nor the White House nor any official branch of the United States government has ever published.
A picture of the deal that was actually signed, complete with signatures and showing the six points that were agreed upon, was published by Kan News on X. Kan News is the news division of Israel's public broadcasting corporation. You can view the text of the signed deal here.
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In light of the recent MOU signed between Israel and the United States, it is important to look back at the effectiveness of the agreement with Hamas to assess the odds of success for the new MOU with Iran.
1. President Trump announces the end of the war in the Gaza strip, and that the parties have agreed to implement the necessary steps to that end.
Hamas continued to attack the IDF after the deal was signed. On October 19, Hamas killed two IDF soldiers and wounded a third near Rafah. The wounded soldier succumbed to his injuries on January 22, 2026. On October 28, Hamas killed another IDF soldier near Rafah. In addition to these fatalities, there have been dozens of incidents where Hamas has fired upon IDF troops. The IDF has been systematically eliminating them one by one. The war never ended. Trump just pretends it has.
2. The war will immediately end upon the approval of the Israeli government. All military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment and targeting operations will be suspended. During the 72 hour period, aerial surveillance will be suspended over the areas which IDF forces have withdrawn from.
A ceasefire is an agreement between two armies to stop fighting. However, the language used in the signed agreement only needs the approval of the Israeli government. Hamas was never required to approve the end of the war.
3. Immediate commencement of full entry of humanitarian aid and relief as determined in the Proposal, and at a minimum in consistence with the 19 January 2025 agreement regarding humanitarian aid. Humanitarian aid and relief implementation steps are attached herewith.
Hamas needs stockpiles of humanitarian aid to survive underground for months at a time during a war with Israel. With the resumed flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, Hamas has been able to restock its supplies over the last nine months.
The humanitarian aid that pours into Gaza includes cement and steel reinforcing rods, which are, in theory, to be used to rebuild structures that have been destroyed. However, it is publicly known that Hamas uses the materials to repair the tunnels damaged during the war and to build new ones.
4. IDF will withdraw to lines agreed upon as per map X attached herewith, and this will be completed after President Trump's announcement and within 24 hours of Israeli government approval. The IDF will not return to areas that have been withdrawn from, as long as Hamas fully implements the agreement.
The IDF withdrew to the "yellow line" immediately after the agreement was signed on October 9, as Trump insisted. However, due to Hamas's refusal to abide by the ceasefire and its failure to make any serious attempt to achieve peace, the IDF advanced in mid-March 2026 to the orange line. See the new map here.
5. Within 72 hours of the withdrawal of Israeli forces, all Israeli hostages, living and deceased, held in Gaza will be released (list attached).
a. As soon as IDF completes the withdrawal, Hamas will commence investigating the status of the hostages and collect information pertaining to them. Hamas will provide feedback and on its own findings through the information-sharing mechanism under 5.e below. Israel will provide information on Palestinian prisoners and detainees from the Gaza strip held in Israel.
b. Within 72 hours, Hamas will release all living hostages including those held by the Palestinian factions in Gaza.
c. Within 72 hours, Hamas will release the remains of the deceased hostages in its possession and those in the possession of the Palestinian factions in Gaza.
d. Hamas will share, within the 72 hours, all the information it obtained relating to any remaining deceased hostages through the information-sharing mechanism in paragraph (e) below. Israel will provide information on the remains of the deceased Gazans held by Israel.
e. Establishment of an information-sharing mechanism between the two sides through the mediators and the ICRC, to exchange information and intelligence on any remaining deceased hostages that were not retrieved within the 72 hours or remains of Gazans held by Israel. The mechanism shall ensure that the remains of all the hostages are fully and safely exhumed and released. Hamas shall exert maximum effort to ensure the fulfillment of these commitments as soon as possible.
f. As Hamas will release all the hostages, Israeli will release in parallel the corresponding number of Palestinian prisoners as per the attached lists.
g. The exchange of hostages and prisoners will be done according to the mechanism agreed upon through the mediators and through the ICRC without any public ceremonies or media coverage.
The final group of 20 living hostages was returned to Israel on October 12, 2025, keeping the 72-hour promise. However, the Palestinian prisoners who were released did not correspond in number, per the agreement. In exchange for 20 living hostages, Israel was forced to return 250 convicted terrorists to Hamas.
Hamas made no effort to hand over the bodies of the deceased hostages. Hamas claimed they had no idea where any of them were. Trump remained silent. Trump treated the return of the living hostages as the end. The IDF was forced to conduct raids into Hamas territory to find its civilians and soldiers.
It wasn't until 109 days after the six-point plan was signed that the IDF was able to recover the body of the last hostage, police officer Ran Gvili. His body was recovered on January 26, 2026, from a Muslim cemetery in Gaza City. Hamas had time to bury him, but apparently could not remember where.
6. A task force will be formed of representatives from the United States, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and other countries to be agreed upon by the parties, to follow-up on the implementation with the two sides and coordinate with them.
The Board of Peace was officially formed on January 14 and ratified on January 22, all while hostages still remained in Gaza. In the five months that the Board of Peace has existed, it has made zero progress on getting Hamas to agree to any part of Trump's 20-point peace plan. The formation of the Board of Peace's only accomplishment was to give President Trump a photo opportunity and a diplomatic talking point that hides the actual reality on the ground.
In late September 2025, the IDF had pushed halfway into Gaza City, Hamas's last stronghold. The estimates were that Hamas had about 2,000 soldiers left in its army. In the last nine months, Hamas has been training new fighters. New estimates place Hamas's army close to 20,000, a tenfold increase. This includes about 8,000 highly trained terrorists of the elite Nukhba force.
Netanyahu and the IDF have drawn up multiple plans to retake the rest of Gaza and dismantle Hamas once and for all. One plan calls for doubling the current force from two divisions to four and crushing Hamas within 6 to 10 weeks. Without living hostages to tiptoe around, tactics would be easier. On the other hand, this plan would almost certainly bring IDF casualties and renewed pressure from the Israeli left to make peace with Hamas. Meanwhile, the IDF is currently fighting in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah.
The other plan, which has been presented, is to incrementally capture more and more of Gaza territory, in such a way that it does not make international headlines. Currently, it is the latter plan that is being implemented. As of June 1, 2026, the IDF held 60 percent of Gaza's territory. The IDF is moving to increase its hold on Gaza to 70 percent and go from there.
Trump's 20-point plan for peace between Israel and Hamas should serve as a very cautionary tale regarding the odds of success of the new MOU with Iran. Don't hold your breath.
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