Friday was Lyndon Baines Johnson (LBJ) Day in Texas, and Democrat candidate for U.S. Senate James Talarico spent the day hanging out with caretaker of the presidential and family legacy, Luci Baines Johnson.
I spent LBJ Day with his daughter, Luci Baines Johnson.
— James Talarico (@jamestalarico) August 28, 2026
I’m running for her father’s Senate seat to continue LBJ’s fight for education, healthcare, and economic opportunity for all.
I’m honored to be in this fight with Luci. In November, we’re going to win back her dad’s seat. pic.twitter.com/BqauKhOA3V
After this meeting, Talarico has added to his campaign spin that he is running for Lyndon Baines Johnson's Senate seat. I don't think this is the flex Talarico thinks it is. Particularly since Talarico's great effort to attract Black voters has flatlined, and LBJ was one of the most openly racist presidents in United States history.
From the comments on the post, it received the mockery deserved. However, conservative grassroots in Texas and political strategists on the ground are concerned. As my RedState colleague Ward Clark opined, Talarico is "the softest political candidate for statewide office in history," yet his pivot to moderation and his attacks on TX Attorney General and Republican U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton as corrupt are making a dent with independents and younger voters.
Talarico's campaign was able to produce this ad thanks to the campaign's huge fundraising haul, and it is going wide Saturday.
WATCH:
NEW AD: Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in Texas — and we cannot afford Ken Paxton's corruption.
— Team Talarico (@TeamTalaricoHQ) August 29, 2026
First airing today. pic.twitter.com/Xncup78hF9
Political strategist and former Harris County, TX, Republican Party precinct chair Rebecca Trahan sees this as a problem, she tells RedState. Trahan surmised that local and state GOP are the ones driving voters to Talarico and other Texas Democrat candidates. This could be occurring out of spite from the GOP establishment's bitterness over Sen. John Cornyn's (R-TX) primary defeat, utter distaste for Paxton, or the illusion that Texas will always be red, and the national GOP thinks they have it in the bag.
All of those elements could well lead to the flip Democrats desire. Trahan warned that if the local and national Republican Party does not quickly course correct, Talarico will win. In a phone conversation and email correspondence with Trahan, she said:
As someone who has been involved in politics over 30 years, I have seen this trend, and every time Republicans have gotten wiped out.
[In the past,] Texas has had overwhelmingly more registered Republicans, but now Democrats hold the majority. [There are] so many frustrated, abandoned, and disaffected Republican voters who have been driven to the Independent Party, who right now are leaning towards Talarico, but could still vote for Paxton. The Independent Party today comprises 16.24 percent of Texas voters.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) also issued a similar warning in early July.
Calling in to Sean Hannity’s radio show Wednesday, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz offered a blunt warning cry to his party: Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has a legitimate shot at flipping Texas this year.
“Unfortunately, I do think he has a real chance,” Cruz told Gov. Greg Abbott, who guest hosted the three-hour talk radio program. “I think this is a real race. I think it’s going to be close. I think we’re going to win, I think we’re going to keep Texas red, but the polling right now shows this is a 1- or 2-point race.”
Sen. Cornyn continues to display acrimony over being shown the door by Texas voters. Not only will Cornyn not be campaigning for Paxton, but he has publicly declared the Senate nominee's woes are his own fault, calling him "lazy" and an uncompelling candidate.
“Paxton’s a poor campaigner,” Cornyn told the [Texas Tribune]. “He’s lazy and doesn’t raise money. And he basically is not offering a very compelling case for his election.
“He’s making this harder than it needs to be.”
Even former MAGA stalwart Leonard Leo, whose legal strategies helped influence Trump's picks of Constitutional originalists for the United States Supreme Court, has stepped away from Paxton.
But one of the architects of the modern conservative legal movement, Leonard Leo, appears to be quietly stepping away from his alliance with Paxton.
Leo has been missing-in-action throughout the Senate contest, leaving Paxton allies feeling bitter, sources say, over his apparent abandonment by a figure who appeared perfectly philosophically aligned.
This was before Paxton's May Senate runoff against Cornyn. Now Leo is pouring his money into other U.S. Senate races, while tacitly avoiding Texas:
Meanwhile, Leo has taken his money elsewhere. His newly-formed Lexington Fund donated $1 million to a superPAC supporting incumbent U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. Another $500,000 went to the Sentinel Action Fund, a conservative superPAC supporting Republicans such as Collins, Mike Rogers of Michigan and Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio. The trio are more establishment-aligned, institutionally credible candidates built for general elections.
The Senate Leadership Fund, which is run by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), and what one legacy media outlet refers to as "MAGA, Inc." are thus far keeping their powder dry.
In one of this year’s most competitive Senate races, Republicans are refusing to spend money — so far.
That peculiar dynamic is playing out in Texas, where the fate of the Republican nominee, Ken Paxton, will help decide which party controls the U.S. Senate. But Mr. Paxton has struggled to raise cash, and no one has stepped in yet to help him.
Mr. Paxton finds himself in a unique situation among Senate candidates, according to interviews with a dozen Republicans with ties to his campaign. Republican donors still hold grudges from a bruising primary. The state, with its 18-plus television markets, is an epically expensive setting. And his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, has proved to be a particularly strong fund-raiser.
Perhaps the most striking piece of Mr. Paxton’s money woes is the high-stakes game of chicken that two of the Republican Party’s biggest money committees, along with their allied donors, are playing.
Both of those groups, the Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc., are not so secretly hoping that the other one swoops in to boost Mr. Paxton with tens of millions in spending, the Republicans said. Neither group has reached for its wallet yet.
“Somebody is going to have to spend big money,” said Dan Eberhart, an oil executive who is raising contributions for Mr. Paxton. “We’ll see who blinks.”
On Thursday, President Donald Trump swooped in to campaign and fundraise with Paxton, and reportedly SpaceX founder and Tesla CEO Elon Musk is contributing to Paxton's campaign and others through his massive political war chest. With 65 days left to November 3, it seems Paxton is starting to kick into gear both financially and momentum-wise. Some candidates like playing the underdog as they snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, and Paxton's electoral history bears those earmarks.
But now that the national GOP has come to Texas and is bigfooting around, ground game is pivotal. What is needed is for the national GOP to coordinate with the Texas grassroots, which will be pivotal in drawing apolitical and disaffected voters back into the fold. Texas political strategist Trahan was part of the team who helped Paxton capture the primary and the runoff, so she recognizes the fractures and the potential pitfalls ahead if the GOP does not get it together.
While I believe Paxton can win and have been advocating for him since January, we are in trouble. Unless we have leadership who welcomes and embraces unity and victory, not only will James Talarico be elected, but we will return to a blue state that does not elect any Republicans for decades.
Democrats also have this advantage: they are better organized and understand ground game to a greater degree than Republicans. Of the four or five campaigns of which I have been a part, this remains clear: when the local and grassroots are kept in charge, magic and resultant wins, happen. As soon as the money changers and national apparatus bring in their experts and strategists, it tends to go south. What is in Paxton's power is working to garner more money, expose Talarico's lies, and win over voters. What isn't in his power: enthusiasm and on-the-ground GOP engagement. Bringing all this together will be critical for Paxton to pull out a win.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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