Democrats Flipping Texas? Silver’s Model Now Says Maybe.

The serious campaign season for the 2026 midterms, which will be perhaps the most contentious and the most consequential in recent history, is getting underway. Already in the campaigns, the long, sharp objects are coming out, and the rejoinders hurled back and forth between the various campaigns are flying like volleys of artillery at the Battle of Seelow Heights.

Nowhere is this more pronounced than in reliably Republican Texas, where the Democrats have placed a lot of their hopes in regaining control of the Senate in the soft pink hands of James Talarico, who is running against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Here's the thing: Political prognosticator Nate Silver thinks Talarico may be able to pull it off.

I don’t donate to political campaigns. But the algorithms correctly determine that I’m a high-propensity political news consumer, and so I still get served my share of campaign ads when staying up late watching hockey fight videos or whatever. No candidate this cycle has been a more frequent presence in my late-night YouTube rabbit holes than state representative James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas.

In these ads, Talarico frequently complains that he’s fallen short of his fundraising goals — buddy, could you spare 5 bucks? — a bit implausibly given that he’d already raised almost $69 million as of the last FEC fundraising deadline in June. As a grammar pedant, though, I’ve been struck by the language that Talarico has frequently used in these ads as well as elsewhere in his campaign rhetoric: he’s going to take Texas back.

Color me skeptical about Talarico's odds of winning here. Texas has been a red state for years now, and it's hard to see things changing that quickly in the Lone Star State. The last Senate contest was between incumbent Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Democrat Colin Allred, who had all the name recognition of the guy who empties the back-alley grease vats in Yaolin, Outer Mongolia. Cruz won that election handily. Talarico is a little better known, granted, but I still don't see his odds are good.

Here's the good point about Talarico taking Texas back:

Back from whom, exactly? Well, Republicans, obviously — or metaphorically, back to the people from the oil lobby and other corporate interests, etc. But this is a bit like the Cleveland Browns claiming that they’ve finally found the formula to return the franchise back to its former glory. Almost nobody remembers their former glory because the Browns’ last NFL title came in 1964, two seasons before the first Super Bowl.

And the last guy to win a Senate race in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen, in 1988, who was also the running mate of Michael Dukakis, who may be the only Democrat in recent history with softer, pinker hands than James Talarico. And we all remember how that presidential election ended up.

Nate Silver rates this contest, however, as either a "leans Democratic" or "toss-up," which is appropriate in the sense that if Talarico manages a win, plenty of Texans will be tossing up their last meals. You can see the FLIPR model Silver uses to make these guesses here.

Now, the RealClearPolling averages in this race should give Ken Paxton and his campaign some cause for concern. As of this writing, Talarico actually holds a slight edge in the polling, leading by 1.7 percent. 

Still, you can color me skeptical. Texas isn't a place where Democrats win statewide races, and polls here are not always predictive. In 2024, Senator Cruz won by nine points, when the same RCP average of polling only had him up half that. And James Talarico's positions on things like transgenderism and women's sports aren't exactly mainstream positions in Texas. When it comes down to actually engaging, actually talking to more voters, and (we can hope) facing Ken Paxton directly in a debate, I'd expect to see those numbers moving. Talarico may have the votes of his neighbors with uteruses lined up, but the rest of Texas? Not so much.

Even so, I'll give the Paxton campaign the same advice I'm giving every Republican candidate: Sprint to the finish. Campaign like you're 20 points behind and sinking fast. Knock on every door and shake every hand you can. Because this midterm matters more than most, and we have to win it.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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