Elon Musk May Be About to Erase Democrats’ Big Money Advantage in Texas

Elon Musk said in 2025 he was done spending big on politics. Apparently, $100 million to $200 million is his idea of cutting back, and Republicans couldn't be happier about it.

Trump officials briefed on Musk's plans expect him to spend that much helping Republicans in November, mostly on voter turnout in competitive races, but it's not clear yet if that's the final amount. Texas is one of them, and Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton, who is fighting back despite being massively outspent, could be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Federal Election Commission filings through June 30 show Paxton's campaign raised $9.24 million after launching in April 2025, with about $1.76 million left. Democrat opponent James Talarico, backed by a flood of out-of-state Democratic money, raised $68.56 million and had $21.55 million in cash on hand.

Despite the massive cash disadvantage, Paxton led Talarico 47 percent to 46 percent in an Emerson College survey of likely Texas voters conducted August 9 and 10. Five percent were undecided. Emerson surveyed 1,000 voters and put the credibility interval at plus or minus three percentage points.

Talarico did best with voters younger than 50, beating Paxton by 15 points. Paxton led by 11 among voters older than 50. Thirty percent named the economy as their top issue; immigration came next at 19 percent, both issues where Republicans hold a structural advantage heading into November.

Musk's money would likely flow through America PAC, which has been building out an aggressive field operation in at least eight states, with an estimated budget between $100 million and $120 million. Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina are among the Senate races in play. House races in California, Wisconsin, and Washington are also on the table, a sign that Republicans are playing offense this cycle.

America PAC's July plans called for door-knocking, digital ads, and direct mail aimed squarely at conservatives who tend to sit out midterm elections, the kind of dormant Republican vote that could prove decisive in a race as close as Texas.

Musk was pretty clear about his future political spending in May 2025.

"In terms of political spending, I'm going to do a lot less in the future. I think I've done enough."

Then he spent more than $73 million on Republican causes in 2025. Roughly $45 million went to America PAC.

On June 27, Musk wrote three separate $5 million checks to MAGA Inc., the Congressional Leadership Fund, and the Senate Leadership Fund. He put another $10 million into a super PAC supporting Republican Nate Morris in Kentucky earlier in 2026.

The 2024 version of America PAC relied on outside canvassing firms. Musk's group paid them more than $46 million to find Trump supporters who did not always vote. Trump won all six battleground states. This time, America PAC is building the operation in-house, a sign they learned from 2024 and are coming back stronger.

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, said another nine-figure push would force campaigns around the country to change how they spend.

"It's a considerable sum that has the potential to shake things up in certain races across the country."

For Paxton, the spending would cover organizers, voter files, mail, ads, and door-knocking without draining the $1.76 million his campaign has in the bank, money he can save for the final stretch.

Talarico has raised almost $60 million more than Paxton and has about $20 million more left. Emerson still had him down a point. All that money, and he's still losing.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

Help RedState continue to report on the Democrats’ radicalism and inform voters as our nation faces a crossroads. Join RedState VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.