The higher-education lobby has put a price tag on President Donald Trump's crackdown on student visas and international enrollment: $3.4 billion.
The figures come from the Association of International Educators (NAFSA) and JB International, which project U.S. colleges and universities could enroll as many as 111,000 fewer international students during the 2026-27 academic year, a 9.5 percent drop from the current year, costing $3.4 billion in economic contributions and more than 39,000 jobs.
NAFSA's numbers are preliminary projections, not final fall enrollment totals. The organization is also asking the Trump administration to reverse several policies it identifies as contributing to the decline.
The estimate is based partly on responses to the Institute of International Education's Spring 2026 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange. NAFSA projects roughly 1.057 million international students this fall, down from an estimated 1.169 million in 2025-26. International enrollment reached about 1.178 million in 2024-25 after rebounding from the pandemic.
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International students contributed $43.8 billion to the U.S. economy and supported 378,000 jobs during the 2023-24 academic year, according to NAFSA. Its projection for 2026-27 is $38.3 billion and 294,000 jobs.
A December 2025 executive order imposed travel restrictions affecting nationals of 39 countries, with no exception for F-1 students or J-1 exchange-visitor applicants. NAFSA also points to limited or delayed visa appointments in India and China, the two largest countries sending international students to the United States. The State Department prioritized visa processing for FIFA World Cup ticket holders during part of the traditional student-visa season this summer.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has made another change that takes effect September 15. The old "duration of status" system generally allowed international students to remain as long as they maintained their status and continued their academic programs. The replacement gives them a fixed admission period, with reporting putting the maximum at four years.
NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw argued that the administration's policies could cost the United States talent, as well as tuition and spending.
"All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries. Forfeiting U.S position as the top destination for global talent hurts students, hospitals, research laboratories, the economies—and carries the real risk that the next big invention will not happen on U.S. soil."
That is a lobbying pitch, not an economic finding. The $3.4 billion figure measures projected spending lost with lower enrollment. NAFSA does not attach an economic estimate to the administration's arguments for tighter visa rules.
The organization wants the administration to prioritize student visa interviews, exempt F and M students and J exchange visitors from the 39-country travel restrictions, and preserve Optional Practical Training for F-1 students.
International applications to U.S. doctoral programs reportedly dropped 21 percent, while international admissions fell 17 percent. Common Application submissions from international applicants were down 9 percent in the 2026-27 cycle.
DePaul University reported a 30 percent drop in international enrollment. The University of New Haven has faced a $35 million budget hole, in part tied to the decline, while other universities have cited foreign enrollment as a factor in recent budget cuts or layoffs.
Whether the projected $3.4 billion loss materializes will depend on actual fall enrollment. For now, NAFSA is asking Washington to overhaul immigration policy based on numbers that won't be confirmed until students actually show up on campus this fall. If they show up at all.
Editor's Note: President Trump is fighting to ensure America's kids get the education they deserve.
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