The GOP’s House ‘Strategery’ Was Excellent and Has Kept Them Competitive

On Sunday, The Hill direly reported:

As midterm elections loom, the president has faced mounting political pressure on key issues including the economy and Iran war. Growing discontent from Americans over rising gas prices resulting from the war has dropped his net approval rating down to its lowest point ever.

Psssstttt…I think The Hill is subtly trying to suggest something, don’t you think?

Just kidding. I believe we all know what The Hill wants to say and for us to believe. So, let’s articulate it aloud, in unison, people: “The GOP is DOOMED in 2026!”

Now that we've got that out of our system, let’s look at the updated facts regarding the battle for the U.S. House of Representatives, shall we?

The RCP job approval for the president is indeed low. President Trump’s job approval is at 40.4 percent, with his disapproval number at 57 percent. This is a better setting than faced by President Bush in 2006, but a worse situation than was faced by President Obama in 2014.

Nonetheless, despite the president’s job approval number, the generic ballot is much better for the GOP. The RCP average gives the Democrats only a 6.4 percent edge – still not a “blue wave” – and that average has quite some underlying diversity. Both Marquette and Harvard/Harris made yuge news by having the Democrats up just a tiny smidgeon. And the two polling firms that have the GOP down the biggest are Quinnipiac – a polling firm long known to be heavily biased towards Democrats – and the Big Data Poll, where Steve Bannon’s favorite pollster – last seen losing it regarding Rep. Tom Massie’s reelection – is pushing Bannon’s position that the GOP is doomed.

Which polling view is the more likely to be the correct one? Well, X/Twitter is flooded with “close Dem(ocrat) internals that do not comport with Trump being 41 at approval or Democrats having a +7 or better margin on the national house ballot.” Polarization, i.e., the concept that disaffected party members will still vote for their party, regardless of how they feel about it, is seemingly in effect. Which is exactly how the Democrats managed to squeeze down the expected “red wave” in 2022 into a “red trickle.”

Plus, the Democrats aren’t helped when, as my fellow RedStater Nick Arama has reported, their own party membership is increasingly upset with their party and want it to stop catering to the leftist crazies – see Graham Platner, Zohran Mamdani, Adam Hamaway, and possibly, Abdul El-Sayed. Which isn’t going to happen anytime soon.

ALSO SEE: Democrats Face Five-Alarm Fire As Polls Reveal Historic Favorability Lows

'Not Doing It Very Well': More Internal Issues for Democrats Hint at Big Trouble for Midterms

Now, let’s examine the House Republican "Strategery," which has worked wonders in buttressing Republicans. Remember, this strategery was to: 1) push GOP redistricting; 2) minimize retirements; 3) spend big; 4) take primary challengers off the table; 5) raise gobs more money; 6) ramp up recruiting; and 7) push certain salient issues.

Thanks to Callais, the GOP has eliminated Democrat seats to replace them with Republican seats in AL, FL, LA, and TN, to convincingly win the gerrymandering war of 2026. According to the Cook Political Report – an MSM political organ that frequently determines the CW – the GOP has a floor of 212 seats and only needs to pick up 6 of the 18 toss-up races to hold the House.
The GOP also continues to benefit from minimal exposure in the boom-and-bust cycle. In the House, the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties. In 2018, the Democrats won 41 seats in the House, then lost 14 and 9 seats in successive elections in 2020 and 2022. The Republicans won control in 2022, only to lose two seats in the 2024 elections after endless — and tainted — counting in California.
The GOP continues to have a yuge and unprecedented money edge. The closer the election comes, the more that money will come into play.
The economy continues to hum along, with the latest jobs report “MORE THAN DOUBLE(ING) job expectations” with “CNBC VISIBLY STUNNED” and “Last month's jobs REVISED UP by tens of thousands!” The jobs reported for the month of May, plus upward revisions from earlier months, were close to 265,000. This is a “phenomenal” number given the declining workforce, which is occurring because illegal aliens are self-deporting or, in a smaller number of cases, being deported. And it is even more impressive that it is happening while the federal government bureaucracy is shrinking.

The only real advantages that the Democrats have are the affordability concerns, which have increased because the Iran war has led to more inflation, and the normal six-year itch against a sitting two-term president. (Of course, this president is a non-consecutive two-term president, which may confuse the matter.) These two points are what The Hill is relying on to make the case that the GOP is doomed for 2026.

However, I continue to think we are back in “coin flip” territory for control of the House, with the Democrats having a very marginal edge overall. And the final House result will heavily depend on what happens in the individual campaigns of some of the more competitive districts.

"We'll (Just Have to) See What Happens."

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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