The State of the House - Back to a Coin Flip for Control?

If the U.S. Supreme Court’s Callais decision was the “Little Boy” nuclear bomb blast against the Democrats, then the Virginia Supreme Court’s decision in Scott v. McDougle is proving to be the “Fat Man” explosion. Between the two, the Democrat Party has been rocked to the core. According to Politico, a Democrat partisan left-wing rag – the “Democrats just lost the redistricting war.” 

This is all because, contrary to my expectations, the Virginia Supreme Court obeyed the Virginia constitution and overruled the Democrats’ partisan gerrymander. They did so by a narrow four-to-three decision by the justices, meaning the Democrat pressure almost worked, as the Democrats really had no case to make on the merits. You can be sure that the principled four justices will not be returning to the court by reappointment - in Virginia, the state legislature appoints them - as their good deed will not go unpunished.

As a result, the state of play for the 2026 House redistricting is:

GOP Edge                      Democrat Edge

Texas: +5                        California: +5

Florida: +4                       Utah: +1

Ohio: +2 

North Carolina: +1 

Missouri: +1 

Tennessee: +1 

This means that in 2026, there will be a total of +14 seats for the GOP, and +6 seats for the Democrats if all seats are won by the expected party. Louisiana, Alabama, and South Carolina are all also making efforts to re-redistrict, and all will favor the Republicans.

According to three prominent political prognosticators, the GOP now has the edge in the battle for the U.S. House. 

So, where do we go from here to analyze the likely 2026 results? 

Let’s circle back to the two modern House election cycles that resulted in the “in party” – i.e., the party of the sitting president – winning (net) seats in the House. This occurred in 1998, under Democrat President Bill Clinton, and in 2002, under Republican President George W. Bush. 

How do these two cycles, and the 2026 cycle, compare?

House Exposure

One similarity is that in none of these situations was/is the “in party” overextended. In the House, there is a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties. In 1992, the GOP had been dramatically understrength in the House for decades. That year, they picked up 9 House seats while losing the presidency. In 1994, the Republicans won 54 seats. This great victory occurred as the South finally swung Republican below the presidential level; for decades, the GOP had been winning the presidential ballot while Democrats held onto to conservative seats in the House and Senate. In 1996, the Democrats barely rebounded, picking up 3 seats while Bill Clinton won a solid re-election. In 1998, despite being the “in party”, the Democrats picked up 5 more seats. In 2000, the Democrats won yet another one as George W. Bush was narrowly winning the presidency. Only in 2002, thanks in part to a favorable redistricting cycle, did the GOP, by then the “in party”, win 7 net seats. 

In 2026, the GOP has minimal exposure. The Democrats won 41 seats in the House in 2018, then lost 14 and 9 seats in successive elections in 2020 and 2022. The Republicans won control in 2022, only to lose two seats in the 2024 elections (after endless, and almost surely tainted, counting in California). 

Presidential Job Approval

A huge dissimilarity is in the sitting president’s job approval numbers. The RCP average was not around during the 1998 cycle, so I will rely instead on Gallup. In 1998 and 2002, both presidents had positive approval ratings in the 60’s. In 2026, Donald Trump is far below that, hovering between the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. 

Overriding Issue

Another major difference is the existence of a salient overriding national issue. In 1998, the Monica Lewinsky scandal had erupted, and President Bill Clinton was eventually discovered to have lied under oath. Impeachment and removal dominated the discourse. In 2002, the year after September 11, 2001, the American people were rallying around the president after the brutal terror attacks, and the “War on Terror” dominated political debate. 

In 2026, there is no such overriding issue. 

This could still change. The GOP could try to raise the impeachment and removal issue. But thanks to the Democrats defining impeachment and removal down during the first Trump administration, it no longer has the shocking reputation it once had. The Republicans also might try to focus on the Democrats being crazed leftists, who reflexively oppose any issue position Donald Trump endorses. There is evidence showing that this is a danger for the Democrats.

The Economy

The economy might also be distinguished. Although the economy was widely celebrated in 1998, with economic growth at 3.9%, inflation at 2.5%, and unemployment at 4.5%, the economy in 2002 was less robust at 2.4% growth, 1.6% inflation, and 6% unemployment. Meanwhile, in 2026, we have 2% growth, 3.3% inflation, and 4.3% unemployment, which is closer to 2002.

Redistricting

Redistricting was not an issue in 1998, although it certainly was in 2002. That year, the GOP won 13 of the 16 newly created House districts. In 2026, it will again be a major factor (see above).

Money Raised

In all three of the campaign cycles, the Republicans raised more money than the Democrats. However, of the three cycles, the Democrats kept the gap closest in 1998. In 2026, the Republicans are likely to have their largest advantage ever. 

All in all, these five factors lead me to believe that we are back to control of the House being “a coin flip” again. But "We'll (Just Have to) See What Happens."

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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