After the mid-mid-term elections, the conventional wisdom on control of the U.S. House has flipped from “a coin flip” to a more traditional “out party” (e.g., Democrat) favored election. To hold the House, the GOP must avoid losing three or more (net) seats. Only twice in recent times has the majority party picked up seats in a midterm election, in 1998 and in 2002.
Now, after the results of a state Senate race in Texas – yes, really – the MSM is running with their latest “reporting” that the GOP is doomed in 2026.
It’s like déjà vu, all over again!
Anyway, the GOP strategy to hold the House includes: 1) push GOP redistricting; 2) minimize retirements; 3) spend big; 4) take primary challengers off the table; 5) raise gobs more money; 6) ramp up recruiting; and 7) push certain salient issues.
Redistricting has, so far, turned into a net positive for the Democrats (although Florida will probably change this). California Gov. Gavin Newsom pushed through his plan to pick up a possible five seats, on the strength of TDS there. (Sorry, Gavin, it still won’t be enough.) Democrats are pressuring for new lines in Virginia, at the behest of the fake “moderate” Democrat governor, but a recent court case has put a damper on their attempt. In Utah, a rogue judge gave the Democrats a gimme seat, and another one may grant them the Staten Island seat (but both are under appeal). Meanwhile, the Republicans are likely to pick up some seats – up to five – in Texas, two seats in Ohio, one seat in Missouri, and one seat in North Carolina. Florida should also provide a GOP boost. But GOP majorities dropped the ball in Indiana, Kansas, and Nebraska, because too many GOP state legislators are still looking to win their “strange new respect” from the MSM.
The GOP attempt to minimize retirements may have fallen by the wayside. A sizable number of Republicans (27) – and Democrats (21) – have announced they will not seek reelection. However, most important are the three Republicans and one Democrat member leaving who represent competitive areas – Reps. John James (MI-10), Don Bacon (NE-02), Jared Golden (ME-02), and maybe Ashley Hinson (IA-02).
The GOP team is raising and will spend yugely. This starts with the president:
Trump raised $26 million through his joint fundraising committee in the back half of last year, and another $8 million directly into his leadership PAC. And a super PAC linked to him has more than $300 million in the bank. All together, a web of campaign accounts, some of which he controls directly and others under the care of close allies, within the president’s orbit have $375 million in their coffers. The funds far outstrip those of any other political figure — Republican or Democrat — entering 2026, and have no real historical precedent.
The RNC is sitting on $95.1 million, versus the DNC’s $12.6 million, with the DNC still $16 million in debt. The GOP House members in competitive races “slightly outraised their Democratic counterparts on average at the end of 2025.” And the NRCC outraised the DCCC “in an odd year for the first time since 2015, $117 million to $115 million.” Overall, the GOP has a substantial $694 million to $167 million edge over the Democrats.
The GOP does seem to have discouraged primary challenges to its incumbents, except against the anti-Trump Thomas Massie. And the president has also taken a major “hands-on” role in recruiting efforts for candidates.
Finally, we come to the salient issues, which still seem to run in the GOP’s favor.
First, there is illegal immigration/deportations. The Democrats seem convinced that the shooting of this guy will turn true independents and moderate Republicans away from the president. I am not convinced. A recent Cygnal poll showed just the opposite, after weeks of MSM propaganda, and other polls demonstrate similar views. Further, history has not been kind to the notion that the crazed, rioting lefties are a net positive for their party’s electoral strength. From the late 60’s through the 80’s, GOP candidates ran very effectively against leftist rioters and crazies in the streets.
Second, there is the economy, affordability, and other livability issues. I have already discussed the inflation rate, which is rather low and trending lower. The economic growth rate has “unexpectedly” been high. Rents have gone down. There has been modest job growth, and unemployment is low. Crime, including in Washington DC, has dramatically decreased. The drug problem has receded, with overdose deaths down roughly 25 percent and fentanyl seizures halved.
Third, there is foreign policy. The Trump administration has been very hawkish. Some like to portray this as a diversion that will politically weaken the GOP. However, once again, historically speaking, the administration usually gains in the polling after a foreign action, as Americans “rally around the flag.” Sometimes the president is even accused of trying to use this to his advantage – see “Wag the Dog.” Only after the U.S. starts sustaining casualties and the MSM has had time to “report” negative news – see Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan – does a foreign policy conflict start to hurt the president’s standing.
Most importantly, we should remember that the campaign part of the 2026 election has not yet begun. What we have now is just the MSM setup, where the GOP is depicted as extremely bad, and the Democrats are portrayed as great. But as we get closer to the election, Donald Trump and the GOP will start their advertising. They will hold the “Midterm Convention” to publicize GOP positives and Democrat negatives. And the Democrats will continue to oppose everything and anything Donald Trump is for, however popular it is; castigate him as the devil, repeatedly, and in the shrillest of terms; and scream for his impeachment.
Perhaps it is worth mentioning that in 1998, when the GOP campaigned on impeaching a president, the Democrats bucked history and picked up House seats?
Some final points:
- President Trump probably needs to boost his approval ratings. Today, the RCP average has him at 42.9 percent approval, with 54.2 percent disapproval. He is again below the 43 percent that is a danger zone for presidents.
- It is unclear how President Trump’s status as a two-term-but-non-consecutive president will affect the normal vote patterns in House politics.
- The House is evenly divided, and has a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties in the House. And the GOP is NOT overexposed.
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