Well, the Senate Leadership Fund has spoken, so we know which U.S. Senate seats the GOP plans to target.
The top Senate GOP super PAC is laying down a massive $342 million ad buy in an aggressive push to help Republicans maintain control of the Senate, reserving airtime in eight battleground states in this year’s midterm elections. The Senate Leadership Fund, a group with close ties to Majority Leader John Thune, announced the plan Monday.
The SLF is playing mostly in Republican-held territory: 1) Ohio = $79 million; 2) North Carolina = $71 million; 3) Maine = $42 million; and 4) Iowa = $29 million. But it also is targeting three Democrat-held seats: 1) Georgia = $44 million; 2) Michigan = $45 million; and 3) New Hampshire = $17 million.
This breaking news makes it a good time for one of my periodic examinations of the 2026 Senate races.
Currently, the Republicans have a 53 to 47-seat majority in the Senate. There are 35 seats up for grabs in 2026. The Democrats need a net pick up of four seats to win control of the chamber.
The MSM has been endlessly hyping Democrat chances to win control of the Senate. But the central problem for them is that only two Republican seats – Maine and North Carolina – are in competitive states. The other 20 GOP seats are in states where the Republicans have a big edge, with Donald Trump winning them by double digits. That almost never happens in Senate elections, let alone twice. In the 2025 Virginia elections, the Democrats won a landslide, but they still didn’t carry a single district where Trump won with that margin.
The Democrats also must not lose any of their own competitive seats. And in the blue wave of 2018, the Democrats still lost in an upset of their incumbent in Florida.
Let’s look at the Senate races chosen by SLF:
Alaska: Dan Sullivan / 54% R / Lean R
The Democrats persuaded former Rep. Mary Peltola to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola is the best the Democrats could get for this seat. But Sullivan is popular with both the GOP base and the overall electorate. The RCP has no polling for Alaska, and the only polls I have found are Democrat/left-wing efforts that have Peltola up narrowly. Peltola raised $1.5 million in the first 24 hours of her bid, more than Sullivan’s $1.4 million during that quarter, although Sullivan has a total war chest of $5.8 million.
Georgia: Jon Ossoff / 50.61% D / Leans D
The Republicans are hampered by a primary here, but now, Rep. Mike Collins (GA-10) seems to have established a solid lead over his two opponents, Rep. Buddy Carter (GA-01) and Derek Dooley. And Collins only narrowly trails Sen. Ossoff. The huge advantages Ossoff has are the divisiveness of the GOP primary and the massive “$25.5 million in his war chest — numbers that are substantially higher than all of his GOP rivals combined.” Collins himself raised only $825,000.
Iowa: Joni Ernst (retiring) / Lean R
The Democrats have the competitive primary here, with Bernie Bro state Sen. Zach Wahls having the edge over the more moderate state Rep. Josh Turek. However, all the polls are from interested parties. The GOP is pushing for Wahls, while Democrat Senate Leader Schumer wants Turek. Rep. Ashley Hinson (IA-02), the likely Republican candidate, has a huge $5.1 million war chest, while the two Democrats have much smaller amounts.
Ohio: Jon Husted / Appointed in 2025 / Lean R
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to win back a Senate seat, a feat that last occurred in 1988. But Brown faces an appointed incumbent, Jon Husted, who himself has won numerous minor statewide offices, and Ohio has since become heavily Republican. Brown is keeping things close in the polling, as he only narrowly trails Husted. However, in his losing race in 2024, Brown led most of the campaign. Brown is, however, heavily dominating the fundraising battle.
Maine: Susan Collins / 50.98% R / Tilt R
Apparently, the Nazi Democrat has decided, based on his own polling, that his Democrat opponent, the sitting governor, is finished, so he can focus on Republican Sen. Susan Collins. The RCP average seems to agree with him. Meanwhile, Sen. Collins is taking full advantage of her incumbency, her chairmanship over the Senate Appropriations Committee, stockpiling money, and accumulating more negative bombshells against the Nazi. Platner has the edge in the general election polling, but in 2020, Sen. Collins trailed consistently in the public polling, only to win convincingly on election day.
Michigan: Gary Peters (retiring) / Lean D
The Democrats have three candidates, each with a credible path to the nomination, and each raising a credible amount of money. But only one of those candidates leads the Republican, former Rep. Mike Rogers, in general election polls. Rogers, who narrowly lost the other Senate race in 2024, has no Republican primary. He has “$3.45 million on hand, which puts him in a better position this cycle than during the same period in 2024.” Rogers can also enjoy watching the Democrats beat the hell out of each other. Rogers also has other outside assistance, besides the SLF – “the group Sentinel Action Fund said it would spend $15 million with an allied group, Right Vote, to boost Rogers ― money that will reportedly go to advertising, voter outreach and early-vote operations across Michigan.”
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (retiring) / Lean D
Recently, New Hampshire has shifted substantially towards the Democrats in federal races. However, former Republican Sen. John Sununu, the son and brother of popular Republican New Hampshire governors, who was ousted by Shaheen in 2008, is making a strong comeback. Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01), the Democrat who represents half of the state, only has a 47% to 44% RCP edge over Sununu. But Sununu still has to win his primary, where he has a solid lead over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. Sununu has also raised $1.7 million, which may be a record. Meanwhile, Rep. Pappas has raised more than $2.27 million.
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (retiring) / Tilt D
Democrat Former Gov. Roy Cooper is still outraising former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley and still leads him in the RCP average by a solid margin, but Whatley hasn’t started advertising yet, so he is basically just getting the generic Republican vote. In the new century, the GOP has dominated Senate races in this state, with only one Democrat winning in 2008, and Cooper does have some weaknesses.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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