Could New Jersey Turn Purple? Or Even Red? (Probably Not.)

In my previous career, I frequently worked on projects that required me to be on site for extended periods, often for a year to two years. When that happened, I generally took out a furnished apartment through a corporate housing agency, as it was cheaper in the long run, not to mention more comfortable, than staying in hotels. That led to me maintaining a second home for months, in places I would have never even set foot in otherwise. Like, say, New Jersey, where I worked from the fall of 2017 to the spring of 2020. I maintained an apartment there in the town of Raritan.

Raritan is a pleasant little town. Lots of American flags, friendly people, and some of the best chicken wings I've ever laid my jaws on. And I was mildly surprised to learn that much of New Jersey, outside of the cities, the places that are responsible for NJ being known as the "Garden State," weren't nearly as populated with left-wingers as I had imagined.

Recent voter registration numbers would seem to bear that out. New Jersey is, as my colleague Nick Arama recently pointed out, suffering a decline in Democrat voter registration.

Now, it seems, New Jersey Democrats are looking at their state, long a reliably deep-blue state, and are growing worried about their state turning purple - or even red.

Trump’s remarkably narrow six-point loss in New Jersey last year was widely seen as a sign one of the bluest states in the nation was turning purple. And there are other indicators that Democratic dominance is fading in the state. Since the 2020 election, Republicans have shaved Democrats’ statewide voter registration advantage from more than 1 million to 864,825. And in the 2021 election, Republican Jack Ciattarelli — yet again the GOP nominee for governor this year — came within just three points of ousting Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.

Those are, yes, close elections. But a win by one vote is just as good as a win by a million.

But voter registration trends are leading indicators, not trailing ones. New Jersey's Democrats have a few advantages going into the 2026 midterms, not the least of which is that they will be, after all, midterms.

But presidential elections turn out more lower-propensity voters than midterms. And wealthier suburban districts like the 7th have had higher turnout than the more working-class 9th. Candidate recruitment and fundraising are some of the few tangible measures of where the political winds are blowing. And in New Jersey’s 2026 House races, Democrats are so far dominating on both fronts.

Still, the registration numbers for Democrats have to be causing Democrat politicians to have a few new gray hairs popping out.

A recent New York Times piece didn't project a lot of optimism. The Times points out, accurately, that Democrats nationwide are losing voters who, in the past, have been reliably Democratic: Young Hispanics, especially men; black men, and in fact young men in general are increasingly registering and voting Republican. Maybe because the Republicans aren't mounting a constant drumbeat about how those young men are all misogynists and potential rapists, but who knows?

The trends are clear. Florida, Ohio, and even my childhood home of Iowa were once swing states. Now they are reliably Republican. Democrat voter registrations are down and Republicans up, nationwide, not just in New Jersey. But New Jersey would be a major tell for Democrats; while I expect New Jersey to, at most, move to a blue state with a tinge of purple in the north and west, it's not going to flip and become the new Florida. That's just not going to happen.

But when Democrats are starting to worry about states like New Jersey, then you know that in the main venue for the next Democratic National Convention, the sweat will be running in rivers, and my envy goes to whomever has the Valium concession.

I would normally offer national (and New Jersey) Democrats some advice on how they might turn this around - but I don't want to.