Hoo Boy: Latest 2026 Numbers for House Seats Reveal the Democrats Are in Big Trouble

Midterms traditionally run against the party in power in the White House.

But some important facts explain why Democrats are freaking out over the redistricting in Texas.

We previously reported on the huge shift in party registration numbers, according to a recent analysis.

NEW at NYT: The Democratic Party is facing a voter registration crisis in red, blue and battleground states alike — losing ground to the GOP everywhere.

My deep dive into the numbers and what it reveals about the party's brand.

Thread —>https://t.co/X9sU7aJYpE pic.twitter.com/GghDmBCRn2
— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) August 20, 2025

30 states plus D.C. allow for partisan registration.

Between 2020 and 2024, Democrats lost 2.1 million voters in those states. GOP gained 2.4 million.

But those topline figures are just the start... https://t.co/X9sU7aJYpE pic.twitter.com/8T3LA5fhP8
— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) August 20, 2025

When Democrats have lost 2.1 million registrations and the Republicans have gained 2.4 million over the past four years, I think you can call that a "crisis" for Democrats.

Then, too, they are cratering to historic lows in approval as well. In July, they had 19 percent approval in a Quinnipiac poll, and then hit a 35-year low in a Wall Street Journal poll.

Now that redistricting has passed in Texas, what does it look like?

Here are the Cook Political Report numbers:

With Texas Gov. Greg Abbott set to sign into law a new map, we are changing 5 race ratings#TX09: Solid D to Solid R #TX28: Lean D to Toss Up #TX32: Solid D to Solid R #TX34: Toss Up To Lean R #TX35: Solid D to Likely Rhttps://t.co/F6vX3PyhzF
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) August 23, 2025

Here's the breakdown, according to Cook (click on to see full tweet).

pic.twitter.com/wvuLUOG0Es
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) August 24, 2025

Here's how that looks with the leaners and the likely counted.

New 2026 House Rating Per Cook Political Report (After Texas Redistricting)

🔴 Republicans: 215
🔵 Democrats: 202
🟡 Tossup: 18
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) August 23, 2025

With the leaners, there's a Republican now in the Democrat leaning district and the Democrat in a Republican leaning district. So that's a wash. With the toss-ups, there are already 8 incumbents who are Republicans. All the Republicans need are three of those to keep control, assuming the numbers hold.

You have to think that's looking pretty good at this point. If California concedes to Gavin Newsom's redistricting push there, that will likely be answered by other states, and may wind up with still more seats that help Republicans. A Wall Street Journal story cited a political science professor predicting Republicans would pick up 4 to 6 House seats if a redistricting battle broke out. As the WSJ notes, the GOP would have the edge.

WSJ: Shawn Donahue, a political-science professor at the University at Buffalo, predicts Republicans would pick up 4 to 6 of House seats nationwide if a tit-for-tat redistricting fight were to break out.
——
More than a dozen red states and three blue states meet the conditions to… pic.twitter.com/H68Ip4DF5I
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 24, 2025

More than a dozen red states and three blue states meet the conditions to potentially redistrict for 2026 without the need for a special election or amending the state Constitution.

So that's why the Democrats are having such a meltdown: they can read the writing on the wall, and they know they're in trouble. But it gets even better. Check out where their money is at this point. Oh, what a difference this is.

POLITICO - Cash on Hand (as of 7/31)

🔴 RNC - $84.3M
🔵 DNC - $13.9M

The DNC has less cash this summer than it did at any point in the last five years, according to POLITICO pic.twitter.com/3oAK9jiZmE
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 21, 2025

That's not just at the RNC/DNC level.

Republican incumbents in swing seats (Cook Political Report “toss-up” & “lean” categories) raised a median of $860,000 in Q2.

Democratic incumbents in the same category raised a median of $689,000. That’s a ~25% gap at the candidate level, not just at the national committee… https://t.co/WAT9jrNMJJ
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) August 21, 2025

I saw people using the term "doom spiral." While it's obviously early to say and we need to do all that we can to bring it home, that may not be far off if this holds. Democrats will pull out everything to fearmonger about President Donald Trump, as they always do. But this is looking great for Republicans, and very bad for the Democrats at this point.

Editor’s Note: The Democrat Party has never been less popular as voters reject its globalist agenda.

Help us continue exposing Democrats' plans to lead America down a dangerous path. Join RedState VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your membership.