New Polling Hints at Rep. Boebert's Chances in Next Week's Primary in Colorado

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Republican firebrand Representative Lauren Boebert (R-CO) has been raising eyebrows since she first confronted Beto O'Rourke in Aurora, informing him in no uncertain terms that he would not be taking away anyone's guns. Some of her performances since have done likewise; in fact, her infamous Denver "Beetlejuice" caper had people's eyebrows tobogganing off the tops of their skulls. But her political career, while shaky at times, has survived thus far. Now she has abandoned her previous District 3 for the redder District 4, and, pearl-clutching by Colorado Democrats notwithstanding, indications are good for her going into Tuesday's primary.


Representative Lauren Boebert, a Colorado Republican, has a strong showing compared to her GOP rivals in a recent poll, but many Coloradans remain undecided going into Tuesday's primary election.

Bobert currently serves Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, but has been campaigning to take over now-retired Representative Ken Buck's vacant seat in Colorado's 4th District. The congresswoman previously said she changed districts for personal reasons, but the move came after she narrowly won in the 3rd district during the 2022 midterms, despite it generally being viewed as having a Republican-lean.

A Kaplan Strategies poll conducted on May 31 found that 40 percent of registered voters plan to vote for Boebert, while 40 percent are undecided. Boebert's challengers received a small percent of support: Peter Yu got 5 percent, Jerry Sonnenberg got 4 percent, Deborah Flora got 4 percent, Richard Holtorf got 4 percent and Mike Lynch got 3 percent. The poll surveyed 343 registered likely voters in Colorado's 4th district and it had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

Boebert's polling results in late May were an improvement from a Kaplan Strategies poll conducted on February 24.


Should she win the nomination, as looks likely, that is tantamount to her winning the election (barring any future "Beetlejuice" style mishaps) in this deep-red district.

See Related: TREMOGLIE: Forget the Gossip and Remember the Facts; Re-Elect Lauren Boebert 

Boebert Takes Top Spot on GOP Primary Ballot in Colorado's 4th Congressional District

Colorado District 4, which includes Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Elbert, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Las Animas, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Otero, Phillips, Prowers, Sedgwick, Washington, and Yuma counties and parts of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Douglas, and Weld counties, is a solid Republican bastion in otherwise blue-purple Colorado. In 2020, President Trump won the district over Joe Biden by nearly a two-to-one margin, despite Trump's losing the state as a whole. In the 2022 Congressional election, incumbent Congressman Ken Buck (R-CO) defeated his Democrat challenger, Ike McCorkle, by a similar margin. (Buck has since announced his retirement, leaving the seat open.) 

Mrs. Boebert has name recognition, she has notoriety - boy howdy, does she have notoriety! She's a member in good standing of the House Freedom Caucus, which may have hurt her in the purplish District 3 but may well work in her favor in District 4.


Lauren Boebert, yes, can be undisciplined, is prone to fits of temper, and can be very outspoken, sometimes when it's not appropriate. But she looks likely to hold a seat that Congressional Republicans will need if they are to have any shot at implementing an agenda after this 2024 election cycle.

We'll need every seat. First, as the saying goes, we need to win.



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