Iran has responded to President Trump's vow on Thursday to have a completed deal that shuts down Iran's pathway to nuclear weapons — and no, Obama's nuclear deal did not do this despite what some prominent leftist midwits claim — or shutting down what remains of its program the old-fashioned way within 10 to 15 days saying, “the only solution is diplomatic negotiation.”
Iranian Prime Minister Abbas Araghchi showed a marked lack of situational awareness in an interview on MS NOW where he basically taunted Trump over the claimed lack of success by Operation Midnight Hammer (Hegseth, Trump Open Up About Operation Midnight Hammer Impact, Offer Behind-the-Scenes Glimpse – RedState) and feigned hurt that Trump was responding with force to the statement made by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on December 27, “In my opinion, we are in a full-fledged war with America, Israel and Europe. They do not want our country to stand on its feet.” This is more than rhetoric; shortly after Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran placed a $40 million bounty on President Trump's head; see Iran Has Placed a $40 Million Bounty on President Trump – RedState.
Araghchi told MS Now that this military build-up is “absolutely unnecessary and unhelpful” and is classed as “hostility shown to us by the United States.”
On Friday, Araghchi also pushed back on Trump’s claim that U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military sites last June had “decimated” Iran’s nuclear program.
Araghchi pushed back on this narrative, saying that during the “huge attack” in June by the U.S. and Israel, “they killed and assassinated our scientists, but they couldn’t kill our nuclear program.”
BACKGROUND
Iran's New Year's Resolution: Threaten U.S. Military, Hope for the Best – RedState
New Development: Iran Diplomat Signals Nuclear Talks If US Eases Sanctions – RedState
If you followed the prelude to former Venezuelan strongman and current federal prisoner Nicolas Maduro being dragged, whining, and in his boxers, onto a U.S. Army helicopter, a lot of this will look familiar:
- An intransigent opponent.
- A taste of kinetic action, with Iran, it was Midnight Hammer, with Maduro, it was his drug boats getting vaporized.
- Trump offering a deal.
- The opponent thinking they can use the rope-a-dope to do nothing.
- A massive military buildup.
- A deadline.
There are several lines of attack against possible military action that have emerged.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Republican Representative Thomas Massie (KY-4) and Democrat Representative Ro Khanna (CA-17) are threatening to use the War Powers Act to stop military action.
Trump officials say there's a 90% chance of strikes on Iran. He can’t without Congress. @RepThomasMassie & I have a War Powers Resolution to debate & vote on war before putting U.S. troops in harm’s way. I will make a motion to discharge to force a vote on it next week. https://t.co/FWQ245D6B8
— Ro Khanna (@RoKhanna) February 18, 2026
Cute and sure to impress the midwits and lackwits who look to those two for intellectual content. I addressed how the War Powers Act works and why every administration since Ford has declared it to be unconstitutional during the run-up to snatching Maduro; see Oh, No. The War Powers Posse Comes After President Trump Over His Attacks on Drug Cartels – RedState. Not only does such a resolution require action by both House and Senate, but the President must also sign it into law, or his veto must be overridden. If you are reading this and think the War Powers resolution is anything but a very cheap and transparent social media stunt, you probably should have anything sharper than a tennis ball taken out of your reach.
The Russians and Chinese are not thrilled. The claim that they will participate in a tripartite naval exercise with Iran in the Straits of Hormuz. Though this tweet uses the past tense, as though they were already on station, that is not the case. It is doubtful that either nation can move surface combatants to the Straits of Hormuz before Trump's deadline. I don't see how they do much more than serve as shields for Iran's navy to protect it from harm.
Russian Presidential Aide: Russia, Iran, and China have sent ships to the Strait of Hormuz to participate in the "Maritime Security Belt 2026" pic.twitter.com/6F1DZVy5ou
— Matt Bracken (@Matt_Bracken48) February 17, 2026
Russian media is trotting out "OMG!! This is WORLD WAR 3!!!" narrative.
Breaking 🚨
— TheOtherNews📰 (@RaheNaab) February 19, 2026
It's an 'EXISTENTIAL CRISIS' for Russia and China if Iran falls — former US Army officer Stanislav Krapivnik to RT's Rick Sanchez
Says Russia-Iran navy drills are 'DIRECT THREAT to the US:
What do you think drop your mind 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/mNlrYDotQg
As always, it is important to evaluate the people talking. I've never encountered the Krapivnik character before, so I did a bit of digging. He claims to have enlisted in the U.S. Army in 1993 and to have become an infantry officer via an undisclosed means. He says he turned down a promotion to major in 2004 because of "fatigue from the systematic preparation for military operations in his homeland." By "homeland," he means Russia. Given the total timeline, I suspect his efficiency reports are in the toilet, and he left because he knew he had no hope of promotion. He has lived in Russia since 2010, which means he basically knows as much about current U.S. military operations as your typical labradoodle.
I understand why Russia might be torqued at having two client states jerked away in as many months, but their ability to do anything about it is limited.
Exact information on the U.S. forces arrayed in the region is spotty and, I think, unreliable. Suffice it to say that there will be two carrier strike groups, led, respectively, by the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford, in the region before President Trump's deadline expires. A large number of aerial tankers and strike aircraft are positioned in the region. It is the largest buildup of US forces since the invasion of Iraq. One of these accounts, @OSINTdefender, is well known for plagiarism, and ordinarily, I wouldn't use it, but we know he stole it someplace fair and square.
Then add the RAF and the IAF and the grand totals between the three Air forces is massive nearly 800 aircraft so far.
— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) February 20, 2026
Fighters/Attack
F-16 (C/I): 237
F-15 (A/C/E/I/AI): 126
F-35 (A/B/C/I): 132
F-22A: 12
F/A-18E/F Super Hornet: 84+
A-10C: 12
Eurofighter Typhoon: 10
Electronic… https://t.co/LEsba6m9oV
That said, what is missing is a flow of ground units to the region. That provides an idea of the scope and intent of any potential operation.
The capture of Britain is at the point where we can no longer rely on them as an ally, but we seem to have found workarounds.
U.K. Denying U.S. Use Of Key Bases Would Impact Bombers’ Role In Iran Air Campaign
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) February 19, 2026
The U.K. is reportedly preventing the U.S. from using Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford to attack Iran.https://t.co/YUPo74NyHL
What hasn't been discussed thus far is what we are trying to achieve.
Superficially, depriving Iran of its nuclear weapons capacity seems to be the desired outcome. Though Operation Midnight Hammer probably destroyed Iran's ability to create fissile material and the widespread whacking of scientists and technicians further degraded Iran's return to bomb production, neither can be guaranteed. Ostensibly, there could be a negotiated end to Iran's nuclear ambitions. However, believing that Iran will either give up its nuclear weapons program or negotiate in good faith calls your sanity into question. On Friday, our main negotiator with the regime, Steve Witkoff, brushed off Tehrna's latest "offer."
BREAKING 🔴 Iran reportedly presented a proposal to the United States during a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva, offering to pause uranium enrichment for three years and pledge not to use its ballistic missiles against Israel.
— Aviva Klompas (@AvivaKlompas) February 20, 2026
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff rejected the…
This suggests the real objective is regime change. And, of course, people whose memories and studies start in 2000 are going ape.
What are the objectives of the war with Iran? Does the administration have a plan for preventing state collapse? Forestalling civil war? Has it identified credible transition figures? Will Congress get a say?
— Sohrab Ahmari (@SohrabAhmari) February 18, 2026
And was a big military confrontation with the Islamic Republic a top…
This is a call for a circle jerk and negotiating with ourselves. You can always pull together some parade of horribles to make the case why something shouldn't be done. I think Iran can be divided into "us" problems and "them" problems. Iran building nukes, proliferating ballistic missile technology, and fomenting terrorism is definitely a "us" problem. On the other hand, civil war, state collapse, and a successor regime are "them" problems. While on the whole, we'd rather not see a cascade of suboptimal events, but we can't let that stand in the way of our national interests: the "us" problems. I can't be convinced that an Iran wracked by civil war and economic collapse is worse than the current regime, and I hope the administration sees the chance to put an end to the Tehran regime as more important than any possible negative outcome. I'm not a huge Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) fan, but I think he gets this 100% right.
Senator Graham on Iran:
— Clash Report (@clashreport) February 19, 2026
People say they don’t want regime change — well, you’re crazy.
If you want this regime to survive, then you need to do some soul-searching. pic.twitter.com/TxIstxbDTd
Sen. Lindsey Graham is openly talking about "the day after" the regime falls in Iran:
— The American Conservative (@amconmag) February 19, 2026
"The day after the regime falls will be complicated. It's not we, it's them. It's not my job to construct a new Iran. It is my job to give them the opportunity to construct a new Iran." pic.twitter.com/kHVKu2SP8J
There is also the problem that if an X rando has a list of concerns, then so too does the Department of War. And if they aren't talking about it, it may be because it's none of your business. From what we've seen in the last year, it is utter folly for President Trump to share anything with the "Gang of Eight" because Hakeem Jeffries will injure himself getting to a camera to denounce what he's been told.
How does this unfold? If I'm right, and regime change is the desired outcome, then we need to look at the massive unrest in Iran.
BACKGROUND
Protests Erupt Across Iran As Angry People Flood Streets – RedState
The World Must Stop Ignoring What Iranians Already Know: The Regime Is on the Brink – RedState
The assertion that regime change is impossible without U.S. forces is fatuous. If we target the Clausewitzian "centers of gravity," we can leverage the latent power of the demonstrators who came within a whisker of prevailing in January to take down the regime. The target array would naturally include any unfinished business we have with the nuclear and ballistic missile programs, but it would also go after the forces propping up the regime, regime communications nodes, and regime leadership down to the city and province level. This would include destroying the regime's ability to jam and locate unauthorized devices inside Iran.
Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has legitimacy. Even if he personally can't pull together a successor government, he's demonstrated that he's respected in Iran and his broadcasts were vital in bringing people out into the streets; Is It 'Go Time' in Iran? – RedState.
As I noted in my posts about Venezuela, this aggregation of forces can't be sustained. It has to be used or dissolved. The window for using this force is weeks, not months. If the U.S. walks away, leaving the Tehran regime in place, we have given Tehran a huge win, and our credibility, which was burnished so brightly by the flawless extraction of Maduro, will be damaged.
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