UNEXPECTEDLY: adv. Frequently used by people who don't know that they are doing, to describe unpleasant events or situations they have created.

Inflation gave Team Bidenomics a swift kick in the pants. It rose by 0.4% in February, the highest monthly increase since September, pushing the year-to-year rate to 3.2%, compared to 3.1% for the January year-to-year rate. Economists had expected a 3.1% year-to-year rate in February.

The White House is pushing the story that "volatile" gasoline prices—and probably predatory price-gouging by gas station owners—are to blame, but the data say something different. The Core Consumer Price Index has increased steadily for seven months.

Core CPI came in high for the eighth month in a row.

Annual rates:

1 month: 4.4%
3 months: 4.2%
6 months: 3.9%
12 months: 3.8%

For perspective, the 3/6/12 month rates higher than any time from 1992-2019. Inflation remains unusually high. pic.twitter.com/k3ENMXETp0

— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) March 12, 2024

Despite trying to soft-pedal the outlook by focusing on the big picture, keep in mind that February's 12-month rate is higher than January's. And both the 3- and 6-month trends are climbing. 

Core CPI:

12 month change (grey) falling. Least noisy but also least newsy--the decline is high numbers from late 2022/early 2023 dropping out.

3 month change (blue) rising. Most newsy but also most noisy, reflects recent high monthly inflation.

6 month between, closer to 3. pic.twitter.com/1DSnJL8aSK

— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) March 12, 2024

Team Bidenomics had been furiously pimping the narrative that inflation was under control as a way to convince the Fed to reduce interest rates during the 2024 election cycle. That may still happen, but if it does, it will have to be accompanied by the tame and cowed academic economist community currently carrying water for Biden's reelection campaign, telling us that hyperinflation is Joe Biden's way of getting rid of college loans.