We saw the United Arab Emirates (UAE) make a big move at the end of April when they said they would be leaving OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1. OPEC stands for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
That was a big deal because President Donald Trump had spoken out against the cartel's control of prices in the past, and this would align the UAE more with the U.S.
But perhaps even more than that, experts are now predicting the breakup of the cartel and a drop in gas prices because of it.
OPEC has long kept crude oil prices higher than they would otherwise be. If this pans out, it will be a major victory for the Trump administration, which is resetting global energy markets.
According to Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a FOX Business contributor:
With more player pricing, oil only being contained by market forces should lead to an ounce of supply and lower prices. Competition is good as it lowers prices and collusion by producers raises prices."
He said Operation Epic Fury has already changed the face of OPEC forever, and "shifted energy dominance from the cartel back into our hemisphere." We saw ships heading to the U.S. to fill up in the wake of the problems in the Strait of Hormuz.
"[The UAE’s] departure removes both production weight and institutional credibility, and that's got to be a concern to Saudi Arabia and others who remain," says Elaine Dezenski, head of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies' (FDD) center on economic and financial power. "I think we're now seeing one of the final nails in the coffin for OPEC. We're seeing alignment from the UAE towards the U.S., which is, I think, part of a broader economic statecraft."
Now the UAE is free to produce as much as they want, and that's already set them free to build a second pipeline to go with the one they already have - Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), also known as the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline - that can circumvent the Strait.
🚨 HOLY CRAP! The United Arab Emirates after leaving OPEC announces plans to CIRCUMVENT the Strait of Hormuz entirely with a new pipeline — and will DOUBLE oil export capacity
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 15, 2026
A major realignment is underway 🔥
"Officials in OPEC-free UAE announced plans to build a second… pic.twitter.com/WsrmHfw5OJ
Not only is the new pipeline a big finger to Iran and further reduces the importance of the Strait, but the more production cranks up, the more the prices would likely come down. Iran has now effectively incited actions that will reduce their control and importance in the future.
It's not only the UAE that may bail on the cartel.
Some analysts say there is also a high likelihood that the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC could trigger a domino effect. Other OPEC countries will have seen the news that the UAE will be able to increase their daily production from slightly more than three million barrels a day to five million next year. That gain in production could easily prompt countries such as Iraq to jump ship, as they would then be free to pump as much oil as they can and need rather than be constrained by OPEC quotas.
Bernard Haykel, a senior fellow at FDD said:
"We're likely to see lower prices in the future. I'm not talking now or in six months, but let's say a year from now, once things get back to normal, you'll see a much lower price because of this UAE decision."
Flynn proclaimed:
"OPEC is not only on life support, it is dead in the traditional sense. This is no longer your daddy’s OPEC and oil politics have changed forever because of what has happened since Operation Epic Fury.
That's great news for all of us. Then, add a successful conclusion to Operation Epic Fury, and we may be talking not just about returning to the oil prices we had, but even lower.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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