I know some are worried about those Kamala Harris poll numbers.
Now it stands to reason she would get a bit of a bounce simply by being alive and not being Joe Biden. And it's also important to understand that there's some oversampling of Democrats going on in some of these polls. But there's another thing that's important to understand here, and CNN's Harry Enten spelled it out. It's essential to understand how the polls can fool you.
Enten says we've been here before, that the polls underestimated Trump in the key battleground states in both 2016 and 2020 by nine and five points, respectively.
3 caution points for Democrats...
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9
He notes that Harris' "lead" in polls like The NY Times/Sienna poll is under that now, at four points. The Real Clear Politics average is at 0.8 percent lead for Harris in a five-way matchup with other candidates. Enten said Trump could win if we have the same thing going on again here.
Plus, as we reported, there are a lot of problems with that poll.
READ MORE: NYT/Siena Poll Shows Kamala Leading Trump in 3 Key States, Analyst Says There Are 'Big Problems'
Even Democratic operative David Axelrod wasn't buying everything that poll was saying, finding some of it "improbable." Good for him for being honest on this point.
As for NYT polls in PA, MI and WI today, some of the internal numbers seem improbable--42% for Harris among non-college whites, for one eg. If you adjust for them, you're probably looking at basically tied races (maybe a tick better for Harris in WI), which is where most,…
— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) August 10, 2024
If you adjust for them, you're probably looking at basically tied races (maybe a tick better for Harris in WI), which is where most, private, high-quality polling has them. Still, this is a big shift.
To put it in more perspective, if we check Hillary Clinton in the polls in 2016 on this date, she was up 6.8 percent in the national polling. This is what the final polling looked like just before the election, and of course, she lost.
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) August 13, 2024
It's important to remember that they can be ahead in the popular vote and still lose as they did then.
Enten also pours some water on the "enthusiasm" being up for Harris, saying that doesn't necessarily translate to being more likely to come out and vote for her. He pointed out how the numbers of people who were "almost certain to vote" in the three battleground states were basically the same as those in May. So it wasn't making people more likely to come out and vote for her. If anything the numbers went up more for Trump than for Harris over that time.
Enten also explained that Trump is more popular now than he was in 2016 or 2020. We also can measure what he did in office versus what the Biden-Harris team has done -- and that isn't working well for Harris, particularly when it comes to things like the economy or the border, two very important issues for voters.
So yes, let's assume it's tight and make sure we go all out to get people to vote. But also let's not fall for the same nonsense they tend to push with polls every four years.
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