Lately I’ve been leaning hard on the 538 projections to see where we’re at with the Republican nomination. After a good stretch he’s close enough that uncommitted delegates could get him over the top.
But he’s projected to take a near sweep in Indiana. Will he perform?
30 of Indiana’s delegates are bound statewide, a relatively large portion. 27 are awarded by congressional district. This means regional polling would be useful, but naturally we’re getting none of it. So all we can do is look at the statewide results, and hope for the best.
The statewide polling is a complete mess right now. recent results range from 29 to 49 for Trump, and from 31 to 45 for Cruz. As of this writing, The poll average is close: Trump 39, Cruz 35. But how did the poll averages do in neighboring states?
- Michigan: The poll average underestimated Cruz by 5, and overestimated Trump by 1. If that happened in Indiana, as of the polls today, Cruz wins.
- Ohio: The poll average underestimated Kasich by 8, and was about correct on Trump. That would not save Kasich, but that kind of error would win it for Cruz.
- Kentucky: This state’s one poll underestimated Cruz by 16. If the Indiana polling replicated Kentucky, yup, Cruz wins.
- Illinois: For once, the poll average was right in Illinois. So if Indiana replicates Illinois, Trump wins.
So there we have it, with a range of polling errors out there, that we’ve seen locally in recent primaries and caucuses, either candidate could win in Indiana, despite the 538 projection of a big Trump win. Get out there and vote, folks. Ted Cruz and your country need you.