Over the next three months there will be a plethora of polling data made available to the public. Sooner or later, Hillary Clinton will get into some kind of trouble and the polls will tighten somewhat. Or Donald Trump will perform better than expected in a debate. As it stands now however, Donald Trump is in deep trouble.
The 538 forecast at the moment has Hillary’s likelihood of winning the election at close to 89%. The latest Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll is not going to help. Quinnipiac polled voters in Iowa, Colorado and Virginia and as expected, Trump is doing lousy in the latter two.
Democrat Hillary Clinton has double-digit likely voter leads in Colorado and Virginia and is on the plus side of a too-close-to-call race in Iowa, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
Both candidates have negative favorability ratings in each state, but Republican Donald Trump’s 2-1 negative scores are much higher. More Clinton voters say they mainly are voting anti-Trump than pro-Clinton. Among Trump supporters, the anti-Clinton motive tops the pro- Trump motive 2-1, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.
The presidential matchups show:
Colorado – Clinton beats Trump 49 – 39 percent;
Iowa – Clinton at 47 percent to Trump’s 44 percent;
Virginia – Clinton tops Trump 50 – 38 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
Colorado – Clinton leads Trump 41 – 33 percent, with 16 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 7 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
Iowa – Clinton at 41 percent to Trump’s 39 percent, with Johnson at 12 percent and Stein at 3 percent;
Virginia – Clinton tops Trump 45 – 34 percent with 11 percent for Johnson and 5 percent for Stein.
Pay close attention to the part about Trump’s negatives. There are too many people who dismiss the notion of likability as a big trait voters look at when deciding who to support. People who follow politics closely seemingly forget most people do not. They’re not looking at polling cross-tabs. They’re not reading 50 political articles a day, arguing on Twitter or Facebook over the latest Trump campaign shakeup or watching cable news shows. They see bits and pieces and say, “I really don’t like Donald Trump.”
The worst part is, with the addition of Steve Bannon, it may not better. Bannon wants the Donald Trump who goes off message, railing about the ethnicity of judges, shouting, “Crooked Hillary!” and being the one who “fights” the media. It works for that small sliver of voters he relied on to get through the primaries but as the evidence shows, it is not going to work in a general election.