Poll: Black Voter Support for Biden Crumbling, 41 Percent Not Even Sure They'll Vote Come November

President Biden’s poll numbers have been in the tank in recent months, with several showing former President Trump beating him in November’s presidential election.

But the news gets worse for the commander-in-chief as a survey released Monday by the “In Our Own Voice: National Black Women’s Reproductive Justice Agenda” group shows that enthusiasm for the president among black voters has plunged since his election in 2020. The bloc is crucial to his reelection chances as he took in 87 percent of their votes last time around.

The percentage he takes won’t matter much if the turnout numbers crater.

The report found that young people are especially turned off:

Young Black adults may feel particularly unmotivated to vote in the fall elections.
Just 38% of 18- to 29-year-olds say they are “almost certain” to vote this fall, compared to 59% of respondents overall. One in four 18- to 29-year-olds (25%) says they’ve thought about not voting in 2024 as a form of protest – of things such as the choice of candidates and what’s happening in Gaza.

Young people don’t want to vote.

Since he’s taken office, Biden has lowered our community’s expectations by 16%, making young voters lose confidence in their vote. If officials want our votes, they need to stick to their word. pic.twitter.com/EZV4rm0CtL
— In Our Own Voice (@BlackWomensRJ) March 25, 2024

Only 59 percent of respondents said they were definitely going to the voting booth in November—meaning 41 percent are not sure.

A majority of respondents (59%) says they’re “almost certain” to vote this fall.

Adults who are least certain to vote include:

Independent / Republican women (35% almost certain)
18- to 29-year-olds (38%)
Respondents with the lowest incomes (44%)

Meanwhile, a whole of people don’t feel it’s particularly important to vote at all, and once again, it's the young people who have lost the most interest.

Slightly more than half says voting in the 2024 elections is “extremely important.” That said, nearly half of 18- to 29-year-olds (48%) lean away from thinking it’s important to vote this fall.

Again, bad news for Joe, because he needs big turnout to win the crucial swing states, and if these numbers hold, that will be a whole lot of votes he needs that end up staying home. In fact, one in six of those surveyed say they’ve thought about not voting as a form of protest for various things like Biden’s Israel policies, “bad candidates,” and “Biden/Trump being old white men.” (Can you imagine the outcry if a poll had a question that included the answer, “I won’t vote for certain candidates because they’re old black men?”)

But we’re still not done. Another bad omen for the stumbling president? The number one concern for voters in the poll was “Cost of living.” Unless the president can magically make Bidenflation and soaring interest rates go away, that’s a big problem hanging around his neck. Racism / social justice comes in at #2, while crime is at #11. At the very bottom? LGBTQ+ rights, an issue that Biden prioritizes, usually in a divisive way.

Polls are certainly not science, and they’ve been known to be spectacularly wrong in the past. That being said, the drip, drip, drip of these constant negative surveys regarding the president surely has the folks at the White House gnawing at their fingernails.

Here are the details about their methodology:

This report provides findings from a national survey conducted among n = 1,005 Black adults from January 22 through January 27, 2024. The survey was administered by Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel. The margin of sampling error is + 3.5 percentage points. Many other types of errors can contribute to overall survey error.