If the 2024 presidential election were held today, former president Donald Trump would win. At least, that's the conclusion the New York Times comes to after releasing its latest poll with Siena College.

The presumptive Republican nominee leads President Joe Biden 48-43 in a national poll of registered voters. And that's not even the worst news for Biden. Jake Sherman of Punchbowl News has that

But it's the "why" behind Biden's lagging numbers that makes the collapse of his support so easy to explain.

Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.

The poll offers an array of warning signs for the president about weaknesses within the Democratic coalition, including among women, Black and Latino voters. So far, it is Mr. Trump who has better unified his party, even amid an ongoing primary contest.

The economy is a big factor in public disapproval, with so many Americans still not feeling the "benefits" of "Bidenomics" - a term the White House adopted to try and pass the current economic climate as a "win" compared to what it was (when it all but collapsed under inflation at the start of his term). 

But it's not the only factor. The southern border has become a very big topic of discussion among Americans, to the point that, for the first time, a majority of Americans support building a border wall. The recent murder of University of Georgia student Laken Riley has also generated a lot of public outrage, leading some to believe that it may cost Biden that swing state's electoral votes.

READ MORE: The More We Learn About the Alleged Murderer of GA Nursing Student, the Worse It Gets

The Biden administration's problems mirror both Jimmy Carter's and George H.W. Bush's. 

Like Carter, Biden's foreign policies have alienated allies and emboldened enemies, and his domestic policies have enraged American voters. Their feelings about public safety and financial security seem to be at an all-time low. 

Like Bush, the Biden strategy seems to be to tell Americans they just don't get how great things are right now, a strategy that led to the famous "It's the economy, stupid!" strategy Bill Clinton's presidential campaign adopted against him.

But Biden is unique in that those problems are - or, at least, feel - way worse now than they did for either former president. On the world stage, Biden's passiveness and aloofness seems to have emboldened multiple enemies of the West into action, with wars in Ukraine and Israel dominating a lot of the conversation. And Biden's inability to be forceful on either issue has led to chaos at home over it.

Moreover, Biden's economic and immigration issues domestically have given Americans several reasons to look at Trump with a favorable eye.

If the election were held today, it's Donald Trump's to lose, because it seems like Joe Biden already has.