Blue states are pushing new taxes on high earners as billions in income and thousands of taxpayers move to red states.
In California, New York, Washington, and Michigan, lawmakers are advancing proposals and ballot efforts aimed at top earners. Washington is advancing a tax on income over $1 million, while California is pushing a tax on billionaire net worth. Other states are weighing similar plans, including taxes on residents who leave and widening the scope of income taxation.
IRS migration data from 2022-2023 shows California lost nearly $12 billion in taxable income in a single year, while New York lost $9.9 billion. Florida gained $20.5 billion, and Texas gained $5.5 billion as taxpayers moved and took their income with them.
California lost roughly 230,000 residents over the same period, while lower-tax states gained both population and income at the same time.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) acknowledged the shift, as RedState previously reported:
“Maybe the first step should be go down to Palm Beach and see who you can bring back home because our tax base has been eroded.”
These proposals assume high earners will stay and absorb higher rates. The migration data shows otherwise.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned about New York’s tax structure:
“New York City has much going for it… but it also has the highest city and state corporate taxes and the highest individual income taxes.”
Business leaders have been warning about this shift for years, pointing to rising costs, regulatory pressure, and tax burdens that make long-term investment harder to justify in high-tax states compared to lower-cost alternatives, especially as relocation becomes easier for both individuals and corporations.
The same pattern shows up in recent moves by the ultra-wealthy. Starbucks founder Howard Schultz is relocating to Florida after decades in Seattle, a move he described as personal that came as Washington pushed higher taxes on top earners. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos made a similar move to Florida during earlier tax fights in Washington. Companies are expanding in Texas and Tennessee while pulling back in higher-tax states.
High earners can move. Companies can move. Capital moves even faster. When tax burdens rise, those moves follow.
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Blue states continue to pursue higher rates even as the taxpayers generating that revenue relocate. Florida and Texas do not impose income taxes, and their population and income gains reflect that. That contrast is visible in where people move, where companies expand, and where income lands.
Those taxpayers contribute more than income tax revenue. They invest, build companies, hire workers, and drive the economic activity that state budgets depend on. When they leave, the loss does not stay at the top. It spreads across the tax base.
That creates another problem. Budgets built around a shrinking group become harder to sustain, yet the response has often been to raise rates further or expand who gets taxed as the base narrows.
Higher rates aren’t capturing that revenue. They’re driving it out.
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