On Tuesday, GOP Rep. Thomas Massie (KY-04) faces primary voters in Kentucky. The seven-term incumbent is facing Republican Ed Gallrein, a farmer and a retired Navy SEAL who earned four Bronze Stars over three decades in the service.
Rep. Massie is a Libertarian Republican in the mould of Republican Sen. Rand Paul (KY) and Paul's father, former Republican Rep. Ron Paul (TX-14). He marries a pro-life record with a very small government philosophy. He is also strongly anti-Israel (but more on that later).
Rep. Massie is facing his toughest challenge ever, largely because he really pissed off the head of the Republican Party, President Donald Trump:
Trump and Massie’s contentious relationship dates back to Trump’s first term, when Massie blocked swift passage of a Covid relief bill during the pandemic. Trump then demanded that Massie be thrown out of the Republican Party, calling the congressman a “third rate Grandstander.” That didn’t come to pass in 2020. But the tension grew worse through Trump’s second term. Massie was one of only two House Republicans to vote against Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” his signature tax and spending package, citing concerns about the national debt.
Rep. Massie seems to have a special talent for antagonizing his enemies by playing with explosive, if not defamatory, rhetoric. He has promoted conspiracy theories regarding pedophile Jeffrey Epstein – who was a prominent Democrat donor who hated Donald Trump – that Donald Trump and the Trump DOJ are protecting the Epstein list, a list of supposed pedophiles that were supposedly in the Epstein file, which has directly led to the frequent anti-Trump charge that the president is “protecting pedophiles.”
Massie has also insinuated “without evidence or apology—that four ordinary Americans did something nefarious in connection with the Epstein files” when he spotlighted those four Americans, who were named in the files but “who had no actual connection to Jeffrey Epstein.”
Also, there is what many have described as Rep. Massie’s antisemitism, which at this point seems well-grounded in fact:
Massie has been doubling down on the antisemitic trope about Israel dragging Trump and America into conflicts and doing their dirty work. He deliberately mischaracterizes aid to Israel—almost all of which is spent in the United States, bolstering vital domestic arms manufacturers—as having no benefit to Americans. He ignores or lies about the fact that America derives enormous benefits from the alliance with the Jewish state in terms of intelligence and weapons development. And, like Carlson, he pretends Iran has not been at war with the United States since the Islamist regime seized power there in 1979. Just as bad, he’s been one of the prominent voices bolstering the smear that the crimes of the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein were somehow linked to Israeli intelligence…He also seems to think there is something illegitimate about millions of Americans, both Jewish and non-Jewish, who understand that a close relationship with Israel is not only an expression of common democratic values.
Recently, Massie sponsored legislation to force the pro-Israel bipartisan group, AIPAC, to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which targets foreign lobbies. Of course, the donors to AIPAC are American citizens, and the policies it promotes are not necessarily what the Israeli government wants – see the “two-state” solution – but Massie doesn’t care. (Full disclosure – I work for another American Jewish group that doesn’t always agree with AIPAC but doesn’t doubt its American bona fides.)
Despite his concern about foreign lobbies, however, Massie seems unconcerned about palling around with a real unregistered foreign agent, Trita Parsi, who is a lobbyist for the Islamic regime of Iran, which has slaughtered over a thousand American troops and which is currently in the midst of a military conflict with the U.S.
Of course, Massie blames Israel for dragging the U.S. into Operation Epic Fury.
Then there is Massie’s habit of casting crucial anti-Republican Party-line House votes. In that chamber, the GOP has a razor-thin margin, and an analysis of voting patterns in the 119th Congress by Fox News found Massie sided against his party "on 73 occasions, or 22.3 percent of the time." This includes votes against the One Big Beautiful Bill and for Democrat war resolutions against the Iran conflict. In response to these votes, Vice President JD Vance has argued:
It's not one issue or 3 issues, it's every single issue. Every time we've needed Thomas (Massie) for a vote he has been unwilling to provide it. When you always vote against the party, you can't expect the party to back you.
The primary campaign for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District has topped $32 million, making it the most expensive House primary on record. AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups have spent over $9 million to unseat Massie. Pro-Trump super PACs have spent nearly $7 million against him as well, including MAGA KY, which is run by Chris LaCivita, a close Trump advisor. Meanwhile, Massie has raised over $5.5 million, and pro-Massie PACs have poured roughly $5.6 million into ads targeting Gallrein.
It is important to note that many of Massie’s donors, endorsers, or defenders are Democrats, and others who are not normal supporters, including members of Code Pink.
As my RedState colleague Ward Clark has commented on, the latest polling seems to indicate that Tuesday is finally going to be retirement day for Rep. Massie. Quantus has Gallrein up 7.7 percent; SoCal has Gallrein up 7 percent; Neighborhood Research has a tie; Grayhouse Polls has Gallrein up 7 percent; and Big Data Poll – run by a big Massie advocate – has Massie up 1.2 percent. All show that the older voters, those who are the most likely to vote, are heavily opposed to Massie’s antics.
Even my usually negative buddy Cameron thinks Tom Massie is going down today.
I can’t believe I am saying this, but this time, Cameron and I agree.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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