Since I wrote my earlier column on the Texas U.S. Senate race, a lot of changes have occurred in the cast of candidates. Two serious contenders announced, one of them being the middle-class, private-school-educated, African American Congresswoman turned crazy radical leftist candidate cosplayer, Jasmine Crockett. One candidate, a former Congressman, has also shifted to a more winnable race for the U.S. House.
As an overall result, the GOP advantage in this race has been immeasurably strengthened.
Texas: John Cornyn / 53.51% R / Likely R
On the GOP side, there are three candidates – the four-term incumbent, John Cornyn, an establishment conservative; the three-term Texas Attorney General, Ken Paxton, an antiestablishment conservative; and two-term U.S. Congressman Wesley Hunt, an African American conservative veteran who has ties to both camps.
Right now, Sen. Cornyn has the narrowest of an edge in the primary race in the RCP average – 30.3% to Paxton's 30%, with Hunt coming in at 20.5%. Because none of these three candidates is close to 50 (plus 1) %, a runoff between the top two candidates is very likely.
With Paxton starting with a substantial edge in the polling, Cornyn and his allies spent months over the summer pounding Paxton on the air. It has worked because Paxton is a candidate who was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House, although he was eventually acquitted, for allegations of corruption, and is in the midst of a divorce from his wife, a state Senator, who has charged him with adultery. It also does not help him that, because of a childhood accident, he has a damaged eye, which is brown and droopy.
Cornyn has his own problems, however. As a four-term incumbent, he is known for being rather boring and has certainly moderated over his career on some big issues, such as guns and immigration. It is important to note that Chris LaCivita, the former campaign manager for President Trump in 2024, has been selected by Sen. Cornyn to manage a Cornyn Super PAC, and that Cornyn has also tapped Tony Fabrizio, another senior Trump strategist, to work on his campaign.
Hunt, meanwhile, stayed in the background before announcing, although he did advertise to build up his positives. Now that he has declared, however, he is still trailing in the polls.
There are two ways this primary could go. If Cornyn and Paxton focus mostly on each other, then Hunt could sneak up the middle in what I have labeled the Feingold Maneuver. However, if all three attack each other, then anything goes, although Hunt might still have a slight advantage. Cornyn has less room to grow, according to much of the polling, and Paxton has his already-mentioned problems. Meanwhile, Hunt has no obvious weaknesses and is much younger with a military background. Certainly, if Hunt can boost his polling and get into the runoff, he would likely be the favorite over each of the other two candidates, since establishment conservatives hate Paxton, and anti-establishment conservatives hate Cornyn.
It is because of Hunt’s potential that the GOP establishment has tried to block him and is still sniping at him. (Full disclosure – I know and like the individual in question.)
One advantage Cornyn still has is in fundraising. He has raised much more than the other two candidates and has a substantial advantage from outside spending.
Another potential key to a GOP primary victory could be a presidential endorsement. However, with Rep. Crockett jumping into the race, this has become less likely, since all three Republicans would have a yuge edge over Crockett.
And now let’s discuss the Democrats.
Rep. Crockett leads her sole serious Democrat opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, 51.5% to 38.5% in the RCP average. Her entrance into the race bigfooted the third serious candidate, former Congressman Colin Allred, whose more moderate positioning might have made him the strongest candidate to win over soft Republicans and independents for the general election. However, with TDS ascendant among Democrats, Allred knew that he couldn’t compete with Crockett in the primary, so he jumped into a House race. So now only Talarico remains, and although he is himself a fundraising juggernaut, the largely white female and minority Democrat primary voters are much more likely to favor Crockett over him, a white heterosexual male.
Crockett’s entry has prompted fear and anger among the Democrat establishment, who can read the writing on the wall. As one unnamed Democrat stated, “Even if it's Paxton on the [GOP] ticket, [Crockett] doesn't give us a shot of winning the Senate, or at least doesn't put us in the game.” The Ragin Cajun, James Carville, is similarly dismissive of her chances, as he has lamented that Crockett “violates the first rule of politics, and that is, in politics, you always make it about the voters and never about yourself.”
While it’s important to never say never in politics, I think Carville and the other Democrat establishment types are correct in this case – I just don’t see how Jasmine Crockett can snatch a Senate seat in conservative Texas over any of the Republican candidates. So, unless Talarico can beat her, the Democrats are extremely unlikely to end a thirty-seven-year drought (since Lloyd Bentsen won in 1988) in Texas U.S. Senate races. And even if Talarico surprises, he would still be the underdog.
But "We'll (Just Have to) See What Happens."
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