US Senate Predictions

Now, it’s time to turn my predictive eye for the final time to the U.S. Senate.

I have already predicted that Donald Trump will win the presidency by a 51 percent to 47 percent popular vote margin, and that he will carry all the battleground states. Remember, his party, the Republican Party, is the out-party during a time of great economic and foreign distress. Remember, in elections occurring under similar circumstances, the out-party always picked up Senate seats, and specifically won five seats in 1968, 12 in 1980, and eight in 2008. Also, please remember that when there are a large number of competitive Senate races, a disproportionate number of these races go towards the party with the “Big Mo,” which, considering the circumstances, is most likely to be the out-party GOP.

There are 34 Senate races on the ballot next Tuesday. Let’s create an updated chart of the (mentioned) competitive U.S. Senate races, based on my earlier charts and some new information:

State	Candidates (incumbent party first)	RCP Ranking	RCP Averages (if given)	Important Notes	Prediction
AZ	Ruben Gallego (D) v. Kari Lake (R)	Toss Up	D 49.3% - R 45.4%	Kari Lake is not considered a strong candidate, but Gallego is very liberal, and AZ is likely to go for Trump, probably solidly. I expect Trump will carry Lake with him.	GOP pick-up
FL	Rick Scott (R) v. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)	Leans R	R 49% - D 44.2%	Scott is not the strongest incumbent here, but he has solidified himself and is close to 50%. Also, FL is not going to vote Democrat for Senate in this presidential year.	GOP hold
MD	Angela Alsobrooks (D) v. Larry Hogan (R)	Leans D	D 50.8% - R 39.5%	Hogan is a great candidate for this seat, and Alsobrooks isn’t, but this is still a stretch for the GOP in deep blue MD. And now Alsobrooks is over 50%.	Democrat hold
MI	Elissa Slotkin (D) v. Mike Rogers (R)	Toss Up	D 48.7% - R 45.3%	Slotkin has a narrow polling edge, but is below 49%, and Rogers is about the best candidate the GOP could get, with a national profile in intelligence and national security matters and as a former long-term GOP Congressman with great bipartisan appeal. I expect Trump to carry the state and bring Rogers along with him.	GOP pick-up
MO	Josh Hawley (R) v. Lucas Kunce (D)	Likely R	R 47.8% - D 35.8%	Hawley underperforms, but he is not in danger in this year when Trump will win by the state by more than 10 points.	GOP hold
MT	Jon Tester (D) v. Tim Sheehy (R)	Leans R	D 44.5% - R 51%	Sheehy has pulled ahead and is over 50% in the average. The state is going to go for Trump by at least 15 points. Barring some surprise oppo drop, this is over.	GOP pick-up
NE	Debbie Fischer (R) v. Dan Osborn (I/D)	Leans R	R 49% - I/D 44.5%	While the polls have Democrats excited – the Independent is really a Democrat – it isn’t enough. These types of hidden partisan campaigns don’t tend to work (see KS), and the state will go heavily for Trump. Plus, Fischer is close to 50%.	GOP hold
NV	Jacky Rosen v. Sam Brown (R)	Toss Up	D 48.1% - R 44%	Brown has closed the gap with Rosen, who is below 49%, but NV is the one state where Democrats tend to underpoll. I expect Trump to carry the state. However, I (personally) fear that the serious burn wounds to Brown’s face, despite indicating his veteran status, are also a turn-off for some voters.	Democrat hold
NJ	Andy Kim (D) v. Curtis Bashaw (R)	Likely D	D 51% - R 33.8%	Kim is over 50%, and this is NJ, where Harris will win (even if less solidly than Biden did).	Democrat hold
NM	Martin Heinrich (D) v. Nella Domenici	Leans D	D 48.7% - R 39.3%	Heinrich continues to be ahead by roughly 10 points, but Domenici has a great name for the state, as her father was a long-time Senator who left office in 2008. Rumors persist that Trump may do well in this state, thanks to his appeal to Hispanics. However, the gap is probably too big for Domenici.	Democrat hold
OH	Sherrod Brown (D) v. Bernie Moreno (R)	Toss Up	D 47.4% - R 46.4%	Although Brown is ahead in the average, he is at less than 48%, Trump will win the state by 10 points, and Moreno is only one point behind Brown. Trump will carry Moreno over.	GOP pick-up
PA	Bob Casey Jr. (D) v. Dave McCormick (R)*	Toss Up	D 48.3% - R 45.7%	Casey, running on his 18 years as an incumbent and his name – his father was a popular former Democrat governor – is still ahead of McCormick, but very narrowly, and he is below 49%. Also, McCormick is an excellent candidate, and he has nationalized the race; most of his ads tie him to Trump and Casey to Harris. Further, Casey is not known for doing anything, which is unusual in PA. (My former bosses, Sens. Specter and Santorum, as well as Sens. Toomey, Heinz, Schweiker, Scott, Wofford, and now Fetterman, were/are all national figures.) I expect Trump to carry PA, somewhat solidly, and bring McCormick along with him.	GOP pick-up
TX	Ted Cruz (R) v. Colin Allred (D)	Leans R	R 49.4% - D 45.3%	Cruz is not the strongest incumbent here, but he has solidified his standing, and TX is not going to vote Democrat for Senate in a presidential year.	GOP hold
VA	Tim Kaine (D) v. Hung Cao (R)	Likely D	D 51.8% - R 39.8%	Kaine is over 50%, but VA is surprisingly close in the presidential race. However, an upset is very unlikely at this point.	Democrat hold
WV	Glenn Elliot (D) v. Jim Justice (R)	Solid R	D 28% - R 62%	No one credible believes the popular sitting Governor, Justice, is not going to flip this seat.	GOP pick-up
WI	Tammy Baldwin (D) v. Eric Hovde (R)	Toss Up	D 48.5% - R 47.5%	Baldwin continues to be narrowly up, but she is below 49%, Hovde is running a good campaign, and the state is competitive in the presidential race. I expect Trump to win the state, and Hovde to come along with him.	GOP pick-up

*Note that I worked for Americans for Prosperity to assist Dave McCormick, among others.

Democrat Bob Casey Cosplays As a Trump Supporter, and It Tells Us Everything About Pennsylvania

My prior “baseline” pick was a pick-up of five seats by the GOP. I predicted there would be no losses for the Republicans. I continue to believe that. I predicted the Republicans would definitely win OH, MT, and WV. I continue to believe that. I predicted that the GOP would pick up at least two more seats, most probably PA and WI. Now, I predict that the GOP will specifically win both PA and WI. I also predict that the Republicans will win AZ and MI.

So, my final prediction is a gain for the GOP of seven seats, giving them a majority in the U.S. Senate of 56 seats.

PS: If things get really hairy for Democrats, as occurred in 1980, then the GOP might flip some of these competitive seats I have predicted would stay with the Democrats. There might even be a total surprise in one or two of the other, non-competitive races. I am also curious to see the results in DE, Joe Biden’s home state, which might get closer after his own party humiliated him in such an unprecedented fashion. The Senate Democrat candidate is ahead by 20 percent in the only poll in that race and is at 52 percent.