ANALYSIS: Returning to the Senate Races

My colleague Nick Arama has already addressed the stunning Gallup poll that, if true, shows a budding Republican wave building. If it is true, Donald Trump could win the national popular vote by a solid margin, by 2 to 4 points, which would result in an electoral landslide.

Which means that we might be back to where we were immediately after the Trump-Biden debate, when Democrats were in grave jeopardy, up and down the ballot. Especially in the U.S. Senate.

At this point, it is extremely likely that the Republicans will pick up control over the Senate. They currently have 49 seats. Only three Republican seats are even mentioned as competitive, and all are a stretch for the Democrats. This is despite the recent Democrat decision to spend money in Florida and Texas for two of those seats (basically a “Hail Mary” play). Meanwhile, of the 51 Democrat seats, one, in West Virginia, is universally expected to turn GOP, and another, in Montana, is trending Republican in the polling and believed by most objective observers to be heading to the GOP.

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Let’s create an updated chart of the (mentioned) competitive Senate races, based on my earlier chart and some new information:

State	Candidates (incumbent party first)	RCP Ranking	RCP Averages (if given)	Important Notes
AZ	Ruben Gallego (D) v. Kari Lake (R)	Toss Up	D 49% - R 43%	Kari Lake is not considered a strong candidate, and refuses to concentrate on her race; for example, by making a play for the vice presidential slot under Trump. But Gallego is very liberal, and AZ is leaning GOP in the presidential race.
FL	Rick Scott (R) v. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)	Toss Up	R 46% - D 42%	The Democrats are rushing money to this seat, and Scott is not the strongest incumbent here. But, FL is not going to vote Democrat for Senate in this presidential year, and Scott has loads of money.
MD	Angela Alsobrooks (D) v. Larry Hogan (R)	Leans D	D 49% - R 41%	Hogan is a great candidate for this seat, who will actually outspend the Democrats, and Alsobrooks has loads of tax problems, but this is still a stretch for the GOP in deep blue MD.
MI	Elissa Slotkin (D) v. Mike Rogers (R)	Toss Up	D 48% - R 43%	Slotkin has a narrow edge, and more money, but Rogers is about the best candidate the GOP could get, with a national profile in intelligence and national security matters and as a former long-term GOP congressman with great bipartisan appeal. And MI is competitive in the presidential campaign, as well.
MO	Josh Hawley (R) v. Lucas Kunce (D)	Likely R	R 48% - D 36%	Hawley underperforms, but he is not in danger, in this year when Trump will win by the state by more than 10 points.
MT	Jon Tester (D) v. Tim Sheehy (R)	Leans R	D 45% - R 50%	Sheehy has pulled ahead by 5 points in most recent polls, and the state is going to go for Trump by at least 15 points. Further, Sheehy is now slightly outspending Tester.
NE	Debbie Fischer (R) v. Dan Osborn (I/D)	Solid R	None, but a non-RCP poll has I/D 45% - R 44%.	While this poll has Democrats excited – the Independent is really a Democrat – the Democrats are not rushing in to fund the campaign. These types of hidden partisan campaigns don’t tend to work, either (see KS). And the state will go heavily for Trump.
NV	Jacky Rosen v. Sam Brown (R)	Leans D	D 50% - R 40%	Brown is being outspent by Rosen, and he has not gained much traction in the race. I (personally) fear that the serious burn wounds to his face, despite indicating his veteran status, are a turn-off for some voters.
NJ	Andy Kim (D) v. Curtis Bashaw (R)	Likely D	D 47% - R 38% in one RCP poll.	This continues to look like a snoozer of a race, except that Bashaw has some self-funding ability, is not a doctrinaire MAGA (he is gay), and the NJ Democrat bosses are not big fans of Kim.
NM	Martin Heinrich (D) v. Nella Domenici	Leans D	D 48% - R 38%	Heinrich continues to be ahead by 10 points, but Domenici has a great name for the state, as her father was a long-time senator who left office in 2008, and she does have enough money to make a credible run.
OH	Sherrod Brown (D) v. Bernie Moreno (R)	Toss Up	D 46% - R 43%	Although Brown is ahead in the average, the latest polls show Moreno moving up, and sometimes ahead, and Moreno is now outspending Brown. Plus, Trump will win the state by 10 points.
PA	Bob Casey Jr. (D) v. Dave McCormick (R)*	Toss Up	D 49% - R 43%	Casey, running on his 18 years as an incumbent and his name – his father was a popular former Democrat governor – is still ahead of McCormick. But McCormick is an excellent candidate, as a good-looking veteran (I heard loads of compliments on the campaign trail), and a former government official (under Bush) with loads of money. And the GOP is actually outspending the Democrats in this state, and for this Senate seat. Further, Casey is not known for doing anything, which is unusual in PA. (My former bosses, Sens. Specter and Santorum, as well as Sens. Toomey, Heinz, Schweiker, Scott, Wofford, and now Fetterman were/are all national figures.)
TX	Ted Cruz (R) v. Colin Allred (D)	Leans R	R 47% - D 42%	The Democrats are rushing money to this seat, and Cruz is not the strongest incumbent here, but TX is not going to vote Democrat for Senate in a presidential year.
VA	Tim Kaine (D) v. Hung Cao (R)	Likely D	D 51% - R 40%	Kaine is over 50%, and is outspending Cao. But VA is surprisingly close in the presidential race, and should there be a big GOP national victory, Cao, an excellent second-tier candidate, still could sneak through (with some help from Kaine).
WV	Glenn Elliot (D) v. Jim Justice (R)	Solid R	None.	No one credible believes the popular sitting governor, Justice, is not going to flip this seat.
WI	Tammy Baldwin (D) v. Eric Hovde (R)	Toss Up	D 50% - R 46%	Baldwin continues to be narrowly up, but Hovde has run a good campaign so far, has self-funding ability, and the state is competitive in the presidential race.

*Note that I worked for Americans for Prosperity to assist the Dave McCormick campaign, among others.

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If I were a betting man – of course, I am not – I would guess from this chart that the Democrats will pick up zero seats in 2024. Meanwhile, I strongly suspect the GOP will win MT, OH, and WV. There are four other toss-up seats – AZ, MI, PA, and WI, where the Democrats have a small edge in the polling. There are also some "leans Democrat" seats, and some likely D seats. I would think that the GOP is likely to win at least two of those seats. I think PA, and WI, are the most likely ones to flip to Republican.

Thus, my baseline prediction for the number of seats the Republicans will pick up in the Senate is now standing at five.

But that is not the end of my calculations…

To be continued in Part II.