Predictions, as someone once famously said, are hard to make, especially about the future. Oh, we all do it; I certainly do. But here's the thing: When one puts out a prediction, it seems obvious that this prediction would be based on something concrete; an extrapolation from past trends, an analysis of a current state of affairs, a look at data, at facts. And, sure, having some actual knowledge of the subject matter of the prediction helps, too.
Climate scolds, though, are very free with their predictions, even though they almost always get them wrong. Scolds from the tragically bland Al Gore to Greta "Doom Pixie" Thunberg have all issued their dire warnings, and they have, without fail, been wrong.
Now, on this noteworthy year of 2026, we have another laughable prediction gone wrong; this one from a scold who, in 2016, predicted that there would be no humans left on Earth by - wait for it - 2026. I don't know about you readers, but I'm pretty sure that there are still a lot of humans here on this little planet. An editorial over at Issues & Insights has the embarrassing facts for this would-be climate prophet.
Predicting that catastrophe is just around the next corner is an old game for the global warming crowd. From Al Gore to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to King Charles to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the forecasts of doom have been raining down on us for decades. That we are able to note this today is remarkable, because one crank is sure that 2026 is the year of our extinction.
“I can’t imagine there will be a human on the planet in 10 years,” Guy McPherson said when asked in 2016 how much time the human race had.
“We’re headed for a temperature in that span that is at or near the highest temperature experienced on Earth in the last 2 billion years.”
McPherson predicted an “exponential change” in the global temperature was coming hard and fast.
That was in 2016. Granted, I'm a little isolated here in our Susitna Valley digs, but when I walked over to the office a couple of hours ago, I heard the usual faint white noise from cars and trucks on the Parks Highway, a short distance away. A while ago, I heard my neighbor fire up his old pickup to go to work, and not long after that, I heard the usual summertime buzzing of someone riding an ATV. Online, all the usual people I interact with regularly all seem to be up and at 'em as usual today.
So, when Guy McPherson said in 2016 that, in 10 years, there won't be a human on the planet, well, I think we can safely say that myth is busted.
I&I has more about Professor McPherson.
So is this fellow an escaped mental patient?
No. He’s an academic, now, according to his website, a University of Arizona professor emeritus of natural resources and the environment. He’s also a certified grief-recovery specialist, which seems like a good business to be in for anyone who causes emotional trauma by predicting that the end of humanity is nigh. At least one person blames McPherson for “most for my anxiety.”
Three years ago, Richard Lindzen, also a professor emeritus (of earth, atmospheric, and planetary sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology), told an interviewer that McPherson was “entitled to any science fiction he wishes to produce, but there’s no scientific evidence [establishing his claims]. These are scare stories. I think once people realize the public is amenable to scare stories, they get carried away.”
The record shows that there has been no exponential increase in the global temperature since McPherson got carried away a decade back. Measurements made by satellites in the lower troposphere show that temperatures today are roughly where they were in 2016, and have in fact fallen since 2024, when they were not quite 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than they were in 1979, when the satellite record began.
Here's the thing: It's not clear what a professor emeritus of "natural resources and the environment" is, but speaking as someone with a background in science (Biology, mostly field zoology and behavior) this sounds bogus to me. A professor of earth, atmospheric, and planetary sciences seems a little more specific, and science, if it is anything, should be specific.
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Dr. Lindzen, as it happens, has some thoughts as to why these people keep popping up with these dire predictions.
So many of these dire predictions have gone wrong that it's almost comical. In the 1970s, the common panic-mongering was about a new ice age, some saying as soon as 2000. Now, I'm looking around, and I'm not seeing any continent-spanning, mile-thick ice sheets. Paul Erlich predicted global famines in the 1980s, and he was wrong. Al Gore, in 2006, predicted an ice-free Arctic by 2013 to 2016. The Arctic isn't ice-free. Polar bears aren't extinct. The Maldives aren't underwater.Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
So why do these scolds keep issuing these dire, and ultimately embarrassing, predictions? Well, here's why, and I'm going to tell you: Graft, fame, and ultimately, power. There's good money in being a false prophet, although where the climate scolds get it wrong is in timing; they claim their doom-laden events will happen too soon, which gives us the chance to point and laugh when they don't happen. But they also use their claims of impending doom to push a political agenda, a far-left political agenda, one that would have us surrender much of our modern, technological, energy-hungry lifestyle.
The predictions are continually going wrong, though; that's where they fail. And that's what people, people in general, people who don't necessarily do deep dives into this kind of thing every day, are starting to take notice - and the scolds are starting to lose support.
