Trump Tells Baier Gaining Seats Via Redistricting Helps GOP Retain House, but One Thing Beats It

There's a reason that the old saying, "It's the economy, stupid," is trotted out every election cycle - because, most of the time, it applies. People, especially people who aren't political junkies, tend to vote their pocketbooks. When gas is $6 a gallon, that doesn't look good for the party in charge (unless, apparently, you're in California).

But then, literally changing the face of the world, geopolitically, that can have an effect, too. In a new interview with Fox News' Bret Baier, President Trump pointed that out, noting that he thinks that a quick victory in Iran will drop oil (and, in time, gas) prices soon enough so as not to hurt the GOP's chances of holding the House in November.

Baier: Contested districts are now tilting to Republicans. Do you think that makes the difference in holding the House?@POTUS: "Well, it helps... I think a bigger difference would be if I win [in Iran] quickly, as opposed to after... prices are down, but the energy caused it to… pic.twitter.com/r0FOHRvK0H
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 15, 2026

Baier: Contested districts are now tilting to Republicans. Do you think that makes the difference in holding the House?
@POTUS: "Well, it helps... I think a bigger difference would be if I win [in Iran] quickly, as opposed to after... prices are down, but the energy caused it to go up... it's going to come down lower than it was."

Here's the entire conversation:

Bret Baier: You push redistricting, and after some really big wins in courts, including the Supreme Court, contested districts are now tilting to Republicans. It looks like they've picked up a number of seats, at least on paper. Do you think that makes the difference in holding the House?
President Donald Trump: Well, it helps. I mean, I don't know the difference. I think the bigger difference would be if I win quickly as opposed to after… But again, I'm not going to let the election determine what's gonna happen with respect to Iran because they cannot have a nuclear weapon, okay?
But a bigger difference would be if that price went down. Look, prices are down, but the energy caused it to go up, and I said to my people, I hate to do this to you, but I'm going to screw up your numbers for a little while because we have to stop the nuclear weapon stuff with Iran, because they're nuts, they're sick people. Even if they weren't sick, we wouldn't want it to happen. But they're crazy. We're gonna take a little curve. We're gonna take it, going to diverge down the pike, and we're going to hit 'em, and we're going to stop them. And essentially, have really put them on hold. We'll do it as quickly as we can. I call it a little pain. Look, I agree the oil goes up, but it's going to come down lower than it was — be down lower than it was now.
Speed — I hate to talk about speed.
Bret Baier: I understand.
President Trump: Because that's why you guys don't like putting pressure on all the people. I want to do the job right. If it takes an extra four weeks… But think of it, we're in Vietnam for 19 years. I'm here doing this for two and a half months.

The president is sounding an optimistic tone here. But it's still all about the economy, and that's the closest thing there is to a constant in American politics.

Experts Explain Why Good News on Oil Prices Is on the Way - and UAE's Plan Is One Big Reason

Energy prices might go down because of the collapse of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Energy prices are dropping because, in January of 2025, President Trump hit the TURBO button on American development. But gasoline pump prices lag behind oil prices; as the saying goes, pump prices go up like a rocket and come down like a feather. That's the reality, and that's something that the President and House Republicans need to take into account, especially when the election cycle kicks into high gear, traditionally after Labor Day.

And remember, Democrat turnout is liable to be high. The left hates all things Trump, with a blinding, white-hot, irrational rage, and that is going to drive them to the polls.

Read: Experts Explain Why Good News on Oil Prices Is on the Way - and UAE's Plan Is One Big Reason

Iran absolutely cannot be allowed to develop nuclear capability. Iran was long overdue in being called to account for almost half a century of being the world's foremost sponsor of Islamic terrorism. But if the Republican Party is to hold a majority in the House of Representatives in January of 2027, then this Iran problem should be dealt with quickly and decisively. The run in redistricting helps; it helps a lot.

But, again... "It's the economy, stupid."

[Editor's Note: This article was edited for clarity post-publication.]

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump’s leadership and bold policies, America’s economy is back on track.

Help us continue to report on the president’s economic successes and combat the lies of the Democrats. Join RedState VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.