It's rather cliché to point at this fall's elections and make the claim that this may be one of the most consequential elections of our time, but it's true nonetheless. The hard-fought successes we've seen so far, on the rebuilding of the military, on staving off tax increases, on the border and immigration policy, and on foreign policy, all will come to naught if the Republicans lose the House and possibly the Senate this fall. If that happens, look for another round of Impeach-a-Palooza and non-stop effort to undo everything President Trump and the GOP have done since January of 2025.
Is the Trump administration perfect? No. Is any Republican administration, any Republican member of Congress, perfect? No. But we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. We have to move with what we have, and national Republicans have to push their advantages to try to defy a historical trend of the party of the president losing seats in the midterms. In the House, in particular, we cannot afford to lose even one seat. That's just where we are.
To that end, on Tuesday night, there was a big confab of administration officials, discussing how best to defy the odds on the midterms, and there were some interesting points made.
NEWS
— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) February 18, 2026
Last night on Capitol Hill, the senior Trump political command briefed its core team on the midterms.
Some of what occurred was previously reported on by @SophiaCai99 of @politico.
Here is a more detailed account, according to one of the attendees at the meeting at the…
It's a long post; here are some highlights.
The pollster and strategist Tony Fabrizio presented with about 25 slides on the data on what voters care about — the demographics, the issues, what messages resonate and what do not.
The economy will be THE issue in the election, he said. Messages that break through: Banning stock trading for Congress, transparency on health insurance data (including on pricing and claims reimbursement), lowering prescription drug costs, the Trump tax cuts.
The economy is always THE issue in the election. It's THE issue in every election. People vote their economic interests first and foremost, and messaging can only take one so far if people aren't feeling a little extra weight in their britches from a well-padded wallet.
Then political czar James Blair spoke and presented the historical data of how rare it is for a president’s party to not lose a lot of seats in a midterm.
Tennessee 7 special was going to be lost before a huge push for Election Day, from which they have taken lessons about messaging and grassroots.
Trying to argue about wages being up will not help; voters have to feel it, he said.
Again, key message: People vote on results, not promises. An economy the size of ours doesn't turn on a dime, and the results of the Trump administration's economic policies are only now beginning to be felt.
One more:
He (Blair) acknowledged that Donald Trump will do what he wants to do, say what he wants to say, not be data driven. Everyone else has to stay on message and be driven by the data. In effect, two separate but related campaigns.
Yes, as always, President Trump will say what he thinks; he's not big on filtering his comments. The GOP's efforts in the midterms will have to work with that, not against it.
There's a lot of good data. People's retirement accounts are doing well. Jobs are coming back. Inflation is in check. Those are the messages that have to be pounded home, at every chance, in every outlet we can manage.
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This fall, though, turnout will be key, and historically, Republicans and right-leaning independents have been soft on midterm turnout. That can't happen this time.
It's important to remember one thing: If you're here, reading these words, you're probably more interested in politics than most people. You're probably better informed, too. Most people don't start paying attention until, traditionally, after Labor Day, and most people still get a lot, probably most, of their information from the legacy media. I don't have to remind you that the legacy media is lockstep anti-Trump and anti-Republican. That's why it will be vitally important to get out every single one of our voters in November, but that alone won't do it. We have to break through the legacy media's lock on information. What's more, the message from the national GOP has to be one of optimism, confidence, and, yes, hope. The Democrats have one primary message: "We hate Trump." That should be easy to overcome, but we can take nothing for granted.
If we lose this election, we likewise lose our efforts to ensure election integrity. If we lose this election, we may not get another chance.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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