On Second Thought, the GOP Is Still Likely to Hold the Senate in 2026

Just when I thought I was out, they – the MSM – pull me back in.  

I literally just wrote a column about the U.S. Senate races, saying the GOP was likely to hold onto that chamber, but, making the rounds now is this Axios article, titled “GOP's new fear: Losing the Senate in November”:

Top Republicans are increasingly worried about private polling that paints a dire picture of the midterms — and it's not just the House they're afraid of losing, it's also the Senate.

This article is incredibly mind crushing for some conservatives.  I was talking to my buddy Cameron (the Panican), and when I mentioned it, his line went dead, as if he collapsed in sheer terror.  

So, for Cameron, I am going to take another glance at these Senate races, once again.  

The Republicans have a 53 to 47 seat majority in the Senate.  There are 35 seats up for grabs in 2026. The Democrats need a net pick up of 4 seats.   

The central problem for the Democrats is that only 2 seats – Maine and North Carolina – are in competitive states.  The other 20 GOP seats are in states where the Republican’s have a big edge.  

The Axios article reports that the GOP fear comes from “polling that shows the GOP facing competitive Senate races not just in traditional battlegrounds such as Michigan, Maine and North Carolina, but also in conservative states like Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.”  It also specifically mentions additional concerns with Texas and Georgia.  

Unfortunately, we have no actual polling numbers reported.   

Assuming the Democrats win the two competitive Senate seats, neither of which is guaranteed, they must still win two more races.  According to this article, the other two seats will come from either Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and/or Texas.  

So, let’s look at those Senate races (again):

• Alaska = Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is being challenged by former Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola. The only public poll is this one, by Ivan Moore, a well-respected-but-known-Democrat-who-tends-to-put-his-finger-on-the-scale-for-them pollster, who has Peltola up 48 to 46 percent.   Unlike most challengers, Peltola is universally known and generally liked in her state.  However, 1) she was beaten as an incumbent Congresswoman by a weaker candidate than Sullivan; 2) she only won her two victories over the very unpopular Sarah Palin; 3) this poll was taken immediately after Peltola announced, meaning she benefitted from the tremendous positive free publicity, and 4) Sen. Sullivan is a well-liked incumbent with no known weaknesses who will outspend her.
• Iowa = The Republican nominee is a Congresswoman named Ashley Hinson who represents a fourth of the state.  Hinson is a telegenic former television anchor, who first won her current seat upsetting an incumbent, and has fundraised as if she were an incumbent Senator.  None of her Democrat opponents are well-known and their fundraising has been poor.   Unfortunately, there are no public polls here.
• Ohio = Appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted is being challenged by former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown.  The RCP has Husted very narrowly up.   Brown is fundraising well.   However, 1) Husted has won many labor groups that used to support Brown; 2) Husted will have the money he needs; 3) Husted has won consistently statewide and has no obvious weaknesses; 4) Husted will have plenty of time as an incumbent to boost his popularity; and 5) Senators like Brown who lose their seat and attempt a comeback rarely win.  
• Texas = Sen. John Cornyn is facing off against two other Republicans in the primary, with a runoff likely.  Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton have the edge in the GOP polls.   On the Democrat side, state Rep. Jim Talarico has a very narrow advantage over Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett.   However, according to most observers, for the Texas seat to switch, Paxton and Talarico must face off.   Neither of these things is assured, however, or even likely.  Although Talarico has had excellent fundraising and Crockett is trailing in the public polls, as a black woman she has much more appeal to her party base than the straight male Talarico, and she has raised enough money to make her case to the voters.  And Paxton has won three statewide races in Texas.

Importantly, in 2024, in all in these states, President Trump won by more than ten points.  And in 2025, during the Virginia Democrat landslide, not a single Trump plus ten seat in the House of Delegates fell to the Democrats.   Further, all these targeted Senate states went for Trump twice before, with similar big margins.  Also, notably, the “largest FLIP of a Senate seat of a state won by the opposite party's president in the prior election in the 2018 or 2022 midterms was: Arizona 2018, Trump +3.54 to Sinema +2.35.” The above seats would all require a much greater percentage flip.

Unless several GOP candidates make big mistakes, or there is a sizable “blue wave” – which is still not likely – I am just not seeing the Democrats picking up four seats.  And that is assuming they don’t lose any of their own Senate seats, which often happens in a cycle.

It is also worth reiterating that the midterm campaign hasn’t really started in earnest yet.  Few of the GOP candidates, or their associated super PACs, have done major campaigning.  All we have now is the MSM painting their usual template of a Republican administration collapsing to spread GOP doom and gloom. And the polling reflects that.

All of this will change as we get closer to the election.

One more thing to remember.  Aside from the possibility that there really are bad polls behind this article, there are three other possibilities: 1) Axios is lying; 2) the NRSC has “Panican” workers who are swayed by the CW and leaking incomplete information to make news; or 3) the NRSC wants to create a panic, for its own reasons.  

The last point deserves some explanation.  Since 2016, the Democrats have had the more dedicated voters.  The GOP, meanwhile, has been plagued by voter indifference, especially during the midterms.   Perhaps the NRSC wants to create some real fear among its voters to drive them out to vote?  Or maybe, the NRSC, which always backs the incumbent Senator, is pushing the idea to boost Cornyn in Texas by saying a bad year could defeat Paxton.     

You really can’t rule out any of these possibilities.   

Based on all this, I am going to keep to my earlier assumption - the Democrats are very unlikely to win the Senate in 2026.  

I hope my buddy Cameron will survive till Election Day.  

Editor’s Note: Do you enjoy RedState’s conservative reporting that takes on the radical left and woke media? Support our work so that we can continue to bring you the truth.

Join RedState VIP and use the promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your VIP membership!