In almost three years, the Russian Army hasn't been able to conquer a neighboring country, Ukraine, that is a fraction of Russia's size and has a fraction of Russia's resources. Both sides have taken a beating in this modern re-make of the Great War, a war of attrition that has both sides going at each other hammer and tongs - or maybe hammer and sickle - without the lines moving much at all. Russia has lost over a million young men, and who knows how much treasure in this attempt, and it's going nowhere.
Now, a recent report informs us that Russia is planning an overhaul of its army, and it may well be going back to an old model. It's a model that worked in 1945, but today?
That remains to be seen - and so does the question of whether they can pull it off.
Russia’s military has been badly battered by its failure to conquer Ukraine, but Moscow is now rebuilding its war machine for the long haul, according to a new assessment from Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, even as the force it is fielding relies more on mass and attrition than military quality.
The report says Russia has suffered catastrophic losses since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with an estimated 1 million soldiers killed or severely wounded, draining its ranks and forcing the Kremlin to rely on mass mobilization rather than professional military strength.
Despite those losses, Estonian intelligence says the Kremlin is compensating by shifting toward mass and attrition, dramatically expanding weapons production and reorganizing its military around volume rather than quality, even as fighting in Ukraine continues.
Not to mention that Russia has been dragging old equipment, T-55s and the like, out of storage and throwing them into the fray. The T-55 was a pretty good tank sixty years ago. Now, they are deathtraps. Heck, in 1991, they were deathtraps; in Desert Storm, T-55s and T-62s went up against American M1 tanks, and it was a disaster.
And one million men? Russia's a big country, but it doesn't have a big population; as of this writing, it's a tad over 143 million, less than half that of the United States, and it's decreasing. Russia may be looking at a model it can't afford.
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What's really interesting about this Estonian report, if we take it at face value, is the reference to the Russian Army going back to "mass and attrition." That's the old Soviet model. The Soviet Red Army was a blunt instrument, relying on vast numbers of men and equipment; quality wasn't important. Quantity has a quality all its own, and we may well note that in World War 2, the United States operated on much the same model.
There's more: Artillery is something the Russians have historically been pretty good at, and they are stacking up ammo.
Russia’s military-industrial complex has increased artillery ammunition production more than 17 times that of 2021, a surge the report says points to preparation for future conflicts rather than short-term battle needs, including the rebuilding of strategic stockpiles depleted during the war. Russia produced roughly 7 million artillery rounds in 2025 alone, according to the assessment.
This makes it look like the Russian Army is going for "accuracy by volume." Artillery is, however, a primary killer on the battlefield; that's why the United States Army calls it the "King of Battle."
But the Russians have many and varied problems, and they may be trying to close some gaps with resources that are, shall we say, questionable.
The assessment cautions that Russia remains a diminished force compared with pre-war expectations — reliant on poorly trained recruits, convicts, foreign nationals and aging equipment — but warns that a degraded military rebuilt around attrition still poses a long-term challenge for Ukraine, NATO and European security.
The poorly trained recruits aspect isn't new. The United States Army, at least now under the Trump administration's shake-up, depends on a smaller force that is highly trained and lavishly equipped. Now Russia is recruiting convicts and foreign nationals? That doesn't seem a sustainable model.
We might note that a report out of Estonia is one we may want to take seriously:
Estonia, a frontline NATO state bordering Russia, has built one of Europe’s most detailed intelligence pictures of Russian military activity through its proximity, regional expertise and intelligence sharing with allies. Its annual assessments are closely read within NATO for its granular focus on Russia’s capabilities, limitations and long-term planning.
It's a curious matter. After the beating Russia has taken in the last few years, one would think that the smart move would be to take what they have - Crimea and that lovely Black Sea port - and call it a day. That's not what they are doing. Last year's Alaska Summit, wherein Vladimir Putin flew to Alaska to meet with President Trump about all this, seems to have come to naught. Putin and his minions talk a big game about peace until actually confronted with the possibility, then it's back to the guns. Now they're trying to shore up their army?
Like a wounded bear, Russia is damaged, but still dangerous. What are they planning?
