20,000 years ago, North America was a very different place. Oh, the outlines of the continent were broadly the same. But it was different, even so. Mile-thick glaciers covered most of Canada and the northern tier of the United States. Sea levels were lower; one could walk from Siberia to Alaska, across a stretch of land we now call Beringia; many did, and they were the ancestors of today's American Natives. Most of all, it was a cold place, with mean temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than now.
People lived through this. Our brains are why. We had fire, we had animal furs for clothing, and we built shelters. And, about 11,000 years ago, the ice, what we call the Wisconsinan Glaciation, receded. The oceans rose to their current level. The climate, as it always has and always will do, changed.
It's changing now. We're in a warm interglacial period. There is a very good chance, though, due to perturbations in the Earth's orbit, due to all of the vast cycles that the planet operates on, that the ice will one day return. Estimates range from 50,000 to 200,000 years from now, but most geologists think that, in time, the ice will return. If they do, and if they reach the Wisconsinan maximum, well then, New York, Boston, Minneapolis, Fargo, and maybe Seattle may be buried under glacial ice.
We've got some time to figure out what to do; no reason to panic.
Bear in mind the vast time scales involved. The Wisconsinan glaciers withdrew to their current levels about 11,000 years ago. There have been several of these events, starting about 43 million years ago, in the Paleogene, and more recently, glaciers have gone up and down, in geological terms, like window blinds.
Over the past one million years, ice ages have come in a rhythm of about 100,000 years, separated by warmer periods that have lasted between 10,000 and 15,000 years.
We are now living in an interglacial period with a milder climate, called the Holocene, which began 11,700 years ago.
So, what happens if - when - they return? Well, don't panic, there's no reason to be alarmed; here's why, and I'm going to tell you.
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Granted, people really started to do very well in North America and Europe when the glaciers retreated. Biologically speaking, our technology notwithstanding, we are still creatures of warm, sunny climates. So extreme cold is harder on us than extreme heat, and when the interglacial warming began, it was a good thing for us. We are, however, still technically in an ice age.
First off, Earth is technically in an ice age right now, defined as a time when both of the planet’s poles are covered with ice. What people actually mean when they talk about an “ice age” is a “glacial period.” This is when the ice at the poles creeps toward the equator. These glaciers reflect the sun’s rays back into space, making the Earth colder, which allows the glaciers to spread further, which chills the Earth even more – a positive feedback loop.
Glacial periods are initially triggered by subtle changes in Earth’s orbit as well as its tilt and wobble. These factors collectively affect how much solar radiation the Earth receives. Such changes are cyclic and predictable, which means that we have the ability to gauge when another glacial period is on the way. So when will that be?
Let's set aside the fossil fuels arguments for the moment. I've made that point over and over, and we're looking at a future hypothetical that, on the near side, is 50,000 years in the future, and if you want to know just how unbelievable any such future is likely to look to us, think about what a person from 50,000 years ago would think if you dropped him on a city street in Dallas - or Tokyo - today. Now, we solve today's problems with tomorrow's technology, and that far in the future, either our technology will be amazingly advanced over today, or we will be extinct, or descended once more into barbarity. In which case, it won't much matter what the glaciers do.
But let's just imagine it happens again. If the ice sheet does start to move south again, they won't move like the fall coming south, at the rate of a man walking. It will take thousands of years for them to reach their maximum extent. People will have thousands - hundreds, at minimum - to move even entire cities out of the way. We will be able to move entire civilizations, if necessary, and it may be necessary. Scandinavia would be under the ice. Much of Russia would be under the ice. Canada? Gone. New England, down to New York, would be under a mile of ice. Ocean levels will drop, making walking tours from Kamchatka to Nome possible again. Temperatures will drop, meaning cooler, drier climates hundreds of miles south of the ice sheets. Crop yields will drop. The carrying capacity for humans on the planet will drop.
Fortunately, we will have thousands of years to prepare. We will still have our brains, after all - hopefully. But even so, another major glaciation, when it happens, won't be a lot of fun, even if we do have ample time to prepare for it.
So, here's my question to the climate scolds: Isn't preventing another major glaciation a good thing?
