China is a dying giant. The problem is, dying giants tend to have a few last good kicks in them. But while we talk a lot about China's standing on the edge of a demographic cliff with one foot already extended over the abyss, while we talk about China's ongoing policy of stealing Western intellectual property, while we talk about China's military buildup and their increasing bellicosity in the Western Pacific, not only toward Taiwan but also to American allies like Japan, there's another thing that may well sink China.
China is a dying giant, yes. They are a dying giant with a huge, glaring vulnerability.
Food. China can't feed its own people without massive imports of food and fertilizer.
First, foodstuffs themselves. China is the world's largest importer of food, importing over $197 billion in food in 2024, up from $140 billion in 2023. China imports food from Brazil, from other Asian countries, and even from Canada. The United States is China's fourth-largest source of food, and its top source for one agricultural category: Tree Nuts and Soup & Other Food Preparations. Chinese imports are expected to continue increasing as their population continues to urbanize. And guess who stands to profit from this?
U.S. agricultural products are generally competitive in the China market and sought by local importers and end-users for their high quality. Particularly in the categories of Tree Nuts and Soup & Other Food Preparations, the United States ranked No. 1 in terms of market share among all other exporting countries. Beef, pistachios and almonds, cheese, pet food, wine, non-alcoholic beverages, and ginseng show great potentials.
Second, what domestic agriculture China does have, and that sector is shrinking, is heavily dependent on imported nitrate and potash fertilizers, of which China has few domestic sources. China's top sources for these imports are Canada, at $1.45 billion/annum, Russia, at $1.04 billion, Belarus, at $928 million, and, perhaps surprisingly, Israel, at $436 million.
You can't sustain a modern, efficient system of agriculture without these fertilizers.
Read More: Trump Admin Announces Huge TN Deal That Will Lower Our Reliance on China's Critical Minerals
'Dark Fleet' Tanker Seized Near Venezuela Ran Sanctioned Oil to China, Says House Committee
Third, some of the major gaps in Chinese food production are telling. In soy production, a key oilseed crop, China's self-sufficiency rating is less than 20 percent - with, again, the United States being a major source of soybeans for China.
Among the imported agricultural products, oilseed crops represent one of the largest gaps. Oilseed crops, primarily soybeans, have the highest level of external dependence. China is the largest importer of soybeans globally, accounting for more than 60% of the global soybean trade, and it also represents the largest share of total agricultural imports. In 2024, The country’s soybean imports totaled 105.03 million tonnes, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, accounting for 66% of total grain imports. The main sources of soybean imports were Brazil, with 74.65 million tonnes (71%), and the United States, with 22.13 million tonnes (21%). However, in 2024, China’s domestic soybean production was only 19 million tonnes, resulting in a self-sufficiency rate of just about 15.2%, indicating a foreign dependency of over 80%.
Fourth, Chinese demands for Western products like beef are increasing, and China is reliant on imports for these commodities. As the Chinese middle class grows, demands on these higher-quality foodstuffs increase as well.
The rise in population and incomes has radically transformed Chinese consumers’ food demand. Consumption of poultry, pork and dairy has increased exponentially. In response to domestic demand, China’s imports of fresh and chilled pork increased from 136,000 metric tons in 2000 to 1.62 million metric tons in 2016.
Fifth and finally, the amount of arable land in China is actually declining.
Despite significant progress, Chinese leaders remain acutely aware that the country faces significant challenges to domestic production.
One of the top constraints is the availability of arable farmland. Rapid industrial growth, sprawling urbanization, overcultivation, widespread pollution, and the growing impacts of climate change are significantly straining Chinese agriculture. According to the World Bank, China’s total arable land declined by over 12 million hectares between 2009 and 2021. By 2022, China had 31 percent less arable land than the United States, while having four times the population.
OK, that's a lot to absorb. But what does it mean from a geopolitical standpoint?
Simply this: China's increasing dependency on not only imported foods but also on imported fertilizers for domestic agriculture is a major weakness. In any future conflict, throttling Chinese imports of food and fertilizer could be a major strategic goal, but we should note that one of the Middle Kingdom's major suppliers is Russia, with whom China shares one of the world's longest land borders. Cutting off Chinese food and fertilizer imports would be a major task for any aggressor.
But there is a cautionary note in all this: The United States is also a net importer of fertilizers, particularly potash fertilizers, and our second-largest source of these materials, after Canada, is Russia - a Chinese ally.
Food is a major consideration in any conflict, be it a hot war or a cold one. The American policy should focus on reducing American reliance on imports; after all, the United States has some of the largest expanses of arable land in the world. And there's another cautionary note: Chinese concerns are buying a frightening amount of this American agricultural land.
China is a dying giant. Their food woes may increase in the coming years, even as their population begins to decline. And as that population begins to decline, in another generation, perhaps two, China may just not be able to keep up its current pace of food imports, and that's going to be a major, existential crisis.
We do live in interesting times. When we keep our strategic eyes on China, we should watch their military, we should watch the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, but we should also watch their food imports and their domestic agriculture; in any potential conflict with China, we could do a lot worse than to hit them in the breadbasket.
