Trump Orders Tit-For-Tat on Nuke Testing With China, Russia

Image credit: public domain image of French nuclear test at Fangataufa atoll in French Polynesia

Nuclear weapons are something nobody wants to see used, except perhaps a few Stone Age nuts in Iran. We saw the effects of those weapons at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and those weapons were firecrackers compared to the devices in the arsenals of today's nuclear powers. There are worse weapons, like biological agents, and if those don't scare the kapok out of you, then you just aren't paying enough attention to the possibilities.

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But nukes are plenty bad enough. The United States has a lot of nuclear warheads, but hasn't done any nuclear testing for many years. There's a possibility of that changing now. On Thursday, President Trump ordered the War Department to resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China.

The post reads:

The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

Now, note the caveat: "on an equal basis." We should probably read that to be a warning to Russia and China: "We won't if you don't."

It's still a significant change in policy.

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Trump’s announcement on Truth Social signaled a reversal of decades of United States nuclear policy that could have far-reaching consequences for relations with U.S. adversaries, though his post included very few details about what the tests would entail. The last nuclear weapon test in the United States was held in 1992, before President George H.W. Bush implemented a moratorium on such exercises at the conclusion of the Cold War.

Trump wrote that the process would begin immediately and was in response to other countries’ testing programs.

Again, note the caveat: In response.


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This isn't quite the hand-wringing reversal that some (on the left) will think it is. The last nuclear weapons test by the United States was in 1992, while China has not (that we know of) conducted a nuclear test since 1996; Russia, since 1990. The last American test was an underground detonation at the Nevada Test Site on September 23rd, 1992. In October of that year, President George H. W. Bush ordered a moratorium on testing, which has remained in place since - presumably until now. 

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That last Russian nuclear test was also in 1990, in October of that year, at their Novaya Zemlya test facility. The last test by China was on July 29, 1996, at their Lop Nur test site.

China has reportedly stated that it intends to keep its moratorium on nuclear testing in place. As of this writing, Russia has not offered a statement.

President Trump, almost certainly, has presented our two major geopolitical rivals with a tit-for-tat threat. If they won't resume testing, we won't resume testing. Right now, nobody is setting off any nukes. With any luck, things will stay that way.

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