AfD Throws a Wrench in the System As Germany's Political Elite Try to Comprehend What's Next

Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won the state parliamentary election (known as the Landtag) in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday. This is the first time in 77 years that a party that could be called "far right" has won a plurality of votes in a German election. When all was said and done, AfD won roughly 44.6 percent of the votes. This is more than double its 2021 share and the party’s strongest state result in its history.

Germany, 95.1% of electoral districts counted:

Saxony-Anhalt regional parliament election

AfD (ESN): 44.6% (+23.8)
CDU (EPP): 16.9% (-20.2)
SPD (S&D): 9.1% (+0.7)
GRÜNE (Greens/EFA): 8.9% (+3.0)
LINKE (LEFT): 8.4% (-2.6)
BSW (NI): 5.2% (new)
FDP (RE): 2.5% (-3.9)
FW (RE): 1.2%… pic.twitter.com/74JwRb9s2w

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 6, 2026

My colleague Ward Clark had some thoughts on the election earlier in the day, but now that the initial ballot count has been accomplished and other implications are becoming clearer; see Is There a Revolution Now Brewing in Germany? – RedState.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Minister-President Sven Schulze collapsed to about 18 percent, down nearly 20 points. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also a CDU member. The other parties; center-left Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), center-left Greens, and the left-wing Left (Die Linke) clustered near 9 percent; the populist left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) hovered around the five-percent threshold necessary for parliamentary representation; the centrist Free Democratic Party (FDP), which holds seven seats in the current parliament and is a member of the ruling coalition, failed to make the cut and gets zero seats.

Turnout jumped from 60 percent in 2021 to above 75 percent.

Whether the AfD has a governing majority is still up in the air. Early projections put the party just short of an absolute majority of mandates. Sachsen-Anhalt AfD leader Ulrich Siegmund had said he would govern only with that majority and ruled out a minority cabinet. The CDU and SPD have refused to join an AfD because it has been classified as a “right-wing extremist” group by the domestic intelligence service.

At this point, if no one can assemble a majority coalition, the current government will remain in “caretaker” status and be unable to function, as it will not command a majority on virtually any issue. That may continue to the next elections, or the parliament may dissolve itself and call for new elections. We’ll know more when we hit the first deadline on October 6.

As with any parliamentary system, you have to keep in mind nothing is ever truly settled. The brand-new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is currently showing 5.2 percent of the vote. If a canvass shows that their vote drops below 5 percent, then BSW does not qualify for representation, and those votes are awarded to other parties. If that happens, AfD will almost certainly break the 50 percent threshold needed to elect a state president and form a government.

For Germany’s establishment, the shock is not surprise; it is scale. AfD has been gaining strength in Sachsen-Anhalt for some years. Still, Chancellor Merz’s CDU losing 20 points and finishing in a distant second place, nearly 30 points behind the upstart AfD, is quite the humiliation in a state it has long treated as a stronghold.

The CDU does seem to have created a situation that keeps AfD from running ministries and, in theory, a CDU–SPD–Green–Left coalition, as ugly and ideologically incoherent as that might be, is possible. Even so, this election, even without AfD control of the state government, makes political life in Germany much more interesting.

The big question, of course, is: is this a flash-in-the-pan, or can it be replicated elsewhere? The answer is perhaps. This is the AfD’s estimated level of support in each German state.

Five states, all in the former East Germany, seem vulnerable to AfD. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern holds its election two weeks from today, so we'll know more then.

The second question is, as this was undoubtedly a referendum on Friedrich Merz's governance, can he survive? The head of the AfD is already promising his demise.

🚨 BREAKING: Right-wing German AfD leader Alice Weidel announces she expects CHANCELLOR MERZ to be "replaced BEFORE CHRISTMAS," and she expects "early federal elections" after today's landslide

AfD has shocked the world, surging nearly +24 points, out-performing polls with… pic.twitter.com/CGEkhfp35T

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 6, 2026

BREAKING: Right-wing German AfD leader Alice Weidel announces she expects CHANCELLOR MERZ to be "replaced BEFORE CHRISTMAS," and she expects "early federal elections" after today's landslide 

AfD has shocked the world, surging nearly +24 points, out-performing polls with RECORD turnout in Saxony-Anhalt — likely finishing up at CLOSE to a majority 

GERMANY IS ERUPTING.

The Financial Times hints that if the CDU loses ground in other upcoming elections, Merz will be gone.

The AfD’s stunning win leaves Merz himself on the ropes. CDU figures were already losing faith in his leadership after a botched reshuffle this summer. His record-low poll ratings are dragging the party to oblivion. Voters are turned off by his haughtiness and failure to deliver anything close to his bold claims. The clamour for a leadership change could prove irresistible, especially if the CDU crashes in other regional elections this month.

While the political environment is substantially different between the old East and West Germanies, what is clear across the country is that the old game of CDU or SPD being the only choices has changed. The establishment and the mushy, no-identifiable-principles, Free Democrats, and the days of government by controlled opposition may be gone for good.

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