China is once more sending a message to Taiwan, and perhaps indirectly to the United States. On Tuesday, the Chinese military conducted a series of exercises involving sea, air, ground, and rocket forces around Taiwan - and Chinese Communist Party officials have stated that the intent was to serve as a warning to Taiwan.

China’s military launched large-scale drills around Taiwan Tuesday to send a "severe warning" and a message of "forceful containment against Taiwan independence," Beijing officials said.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said it had tracked 19 Chinese navy vessels in the waters surrounding the island in a 24-hour period from 6 a.m. Monday until 6 a.m. Tuesday. The exercises – which involved Chinese navy, air, ground and rocket forces – were unannounced. 

"China's blatant military provocations not only threaten peace in the Taiwan Strait but also undermine security in the entire region, as evidenced by drills near Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Korea, the Philippines and the South China Sea," Taiwan's Presidential Office wrote on X. "We strongly condemn China's escalatory behavior."

In one significant move, China's "People's Liberation Army Navy" (they really call it that) even trotted out one of its two aircraft carriers. Taiwan responded forcefully:

Taiwan defense officials added that they had been tracking the movement of China's Shandong aircraft carrier since Saturday and that its carrier group had entered into Taiwan's air defense identification zone on Monday. In response, Taiwan dispatched military aircraft and ships and activated land-based missile systems, according to Reuters.

"I want to say these actions amply reflect (China's) destruction of regional peace and stability," Taiwan's Defense Minister Wellington Koo said.

China has, of course, done this kind of thing before, and it will no doubt do it again. This is Cold War-style brinkmanship, posturing to "send a message" that the sender has little or no intention of ever acting on.

Or do they? It sure appears that China is ramping up the message lately.

See Related: China Is Fielding a New Nuke-Capable Strategic Bomber - but There's a Catch

China Ramping Up Their Military Budget Signals a New Era of Global Power Plays

China is, as I have written many times, a nation not of great ideas but of great momentum. And they do have a great deal of momentum; here in the United States, we tend to think of history in terms of hundreds of years, but China thinks in terms of thousands. However, the Middle Kingdom may have reached its zenith. China is facing a demographic crisis, one that in a generation or two may threaten the country's coherence; we should remember that China is not an ethnically monolithic nation but a vast land that encompasses many ethnic groups and languages. This could, in the event of a demographic collapse, doom China as we know it to break up.

It's not inconceivable that the Chinese Communist Party and Chairman Xi understand this and may seek to cement Chinese prominence on the global stage while they still can. And, remember, Taiwan is not only a friendly country with an elected government, unlike China, they are also a major producer of microchips, which are essential for the manufacture of everything from airplanes to refrigerators.

Desperate times lead to desperate measures. Some people in the western Pacific may well be approaching desperation, if not now, then soon.

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