There can be little doubt that China intends to challenge the United States for the role of the leading power in the Western Pacific. The Chinese military, under the direction of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has routinely trailed their coats down the Alaskan coast, as well as pushing up close to Japan, the Philippines, and other American allies. This is an old game, conducting "freedom of navigation" exercises, and we do it too.
China has also been making moves to dial its military in, including upgrading equipment - and aircraft. In one of the more recent developments, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force (yes, they really call it that) is now fielding a "new" nuclear-capable strategic bomber, the H-6N.
But there's a catch. It's not really a new bomber.
The new strategic bomber is an H-6N that was recently converted to a nuclear delivery system from less-capable bombers. The new bombers have increased the overall strategic threat posed by China’s rapidly expanding nuclear forces, said officials who provided a briefing on People’s Liberation Army air power.
“The H-6 November gives them the long lacking third leg of the nuclear triad,” one intelligence official said. “They are coming online.”
What sets the H-6N apart from earlier variants is that it’s the first bomber in the Chinese warplane inventory that can be refueled while in flight.
“This is important because if you want to have a strategic strike capability, you have to have strategic range associated with that, and [the H-6N] is designed specifically to deliver a nuclear payload,” the official said.
In-flight refueling is, yes, a big deal; it has the potential to greatly extend China's reach - and China already has several tanker variants of the H-6 in operation.
Here's the onion:
The Chinese nuclear bomber force is being built along lines similar to those used by the Soviet and now Russian nuclear bomber force, the official said. The number of deployed H-6Ns is unknown as the Chinese government does not disclose the size of its nuclear forces. The Arms Control Association estimates there are about 20 H-6Ns. Other assessments from 2023 state that the total number of H-6 bombers of all variants is around 150, with a projected expansion to around 250 bombers by 2035.
Note that first line: "...similar to those used by the Soviet and now Russian nuclear bomber force."
The H-6 fleet is in fact a license-built copy of the Soviet Union's Tu-16, which carries the NATO designation "Badger" and was first put into operation in 1952. Manufacture of the Tu-16 in the Soviet Union ceased in 1962 with a tad over 1,500 built. China started production of the Xi'an H-6 in 1969, with a little over 200 being built.
See Related: Will China Make the Pacific the Next Battlefield?
The "new" H-6N is a modification of the H-6 to carry a new air-launched nuclear ballistic missile.
The CH-AS-X-13, meanwhile, is a two-stage, solid-fuel ballistic missile with a 3,000 kilometer range; it is likely a variant of the DF-21 medium-range ballistic missile. The missile may use lighter weight composite materials in its airframe to reduce the necessary carry weight for the bomber.
Whatever the missile may be, the aircraft releasing it is still a Cold War-era aircraft. Granted its avionics have been upgraded, but it's about as stealthy as Senator Chuck Schumer at a press conference. Granted the United States is still fielding a Cold War-era strategic bomber, the B-52, but we have only employed the BUFF when we have absolute and unchallenged air superiority - something that China can't count on in any potential conflict. This is a stand-off weapon, and the vulnerable old H-6 would have to stand off a long way to have any survivability.
We should still be concerned about China. In any potential conflict, we can expect them to bring everything they have to the table, and given their history, it's very likely that their only concern is that aircraft like the H-6N survive long enough to launch their missiles. And the missiles only have to work once.
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