Are things in the western Pacific about to get very interesting indeed? On Monday, China conducted a naval warfare exercise of unprecedented scale, and those exercises were uncomfortably close to Taiwan.
China employed a record 125 aircraft, as well as its Liaoning aircraft carrier and ships, in large-scale military exercises surrounding Taiwan and its outlying islands Monday, simulating the sealing off of key ports in a move that underscores the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait, officials said.
China made clear it was to punish Taiwan’s president for rejecting Beijing’s claim of sovereignty over the self-governed island.
The drills came four days after Taiwan celebrated the founding of its government on its National Day, when Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said in a speech that China has no right to represent Taiwan and declared his commitment to “resist annexation or encroachment.”
This will, of course, fuel some inevitable speculation about China's intent in this exercise. Primary among those concerns: Is China considering making some move against Taiwan now, while befuddled old Joe Biden is still in the White House (or, more likely, on a beach in Rehoboth, but you get the idea.) The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is doubtlessly thinking ahead to a possible second term of Donald Trump in the White House, and among China's leadership - Chairman Xi and his cadres of yes-men - there has to be a little trepidation about that possibility, and the Chinese military has to be war-gaming the possibility of a more aggressive American stance vis-à-vis support for Taiwan in the face of any Chinese attempt to reclaim that island.
Some skepticism is in order here. Communist China has been making aggressive statements and moves against Taiwan since 1949. With only three weeks to go to a major American election, it seems unlikely that the CCP would suddenly engage in an attack now if a second Trump administration is their worry.
Taipei, in any case, is openly defiant.
Taiwan remained defiant. “Our military will definitely deal with the threat from China appropriately,” Joseph Wu, secretary-general of Taiwan’s security council, said at a forum in Taipei, Taiwan’s capital. “Threatening other countries with force violates the basic spirit of the United Nations Charter to resolve disputes through peaceful means.”
Taiwan’s Presidential Office also called on China to “cease military provocations that undermine regional peace and stability and stop threatening Taiwan’s democracy and freedom.”
Odds are this is another exercise in saber-rattling by the CCP.
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A Chinese invasion of Taiwan isn't something the CCP is going to take lightly or undergo capriciously. Amphibious landings are some of the most difficult exercises to pull off successfully, and an invasion of Taiwan has been estimated to cost China as much as $10 trillion. That number seems on the high side, but the cost would be considerable, and China's economy is built on a house of cards.
We should remember that this has happened before, and recently:
China also held massive military exercises around Taiwan and simulated a blockade in 2022 after a visit to the island by Nancy Pelosi, who was then speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. China routinely states that Taiwan independence is a “dead end” and that annexation by Beijing is a historical inevitability. China’s military has increased its encircling of Taiwan’s skies and waters in the past few years, holding joint drills with its warships and fighter jets on a near-daily basis near the island.
They didn't invade Taiwan then, and it's unlikely they will invade Taiwan before any possible second Trump inauguration. If China ever does make a move on Taiwan, it will be on their schedule, not ours, and even then, the CCP has to know that it would be ruinously expensive. The saber-rattling will certainly continue but for now, it's a safe bet that this is all they'll do.
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