Five Possible October Surprises - Would They Really Have Any Impact on the Race?

The "October Surprise" is a well-known phenomenon in American politics, in which some revelation or issue about or around one candidate is dropped late in the election cycle, hopefully to do that candidate unrecoverable damage just before the election. These things have often backfired, and sometimes, they are just a flash in the pan with no effect at all. But a Monday Washington Examiner piece by scribe Peter Laffin has posited five possible October surprises that might damage one presidential ticket or another.

Color me skeptical. Let's have a look at those five possible events.

Biden resigns, and Harris is sworn in
2024 could produce the first female president in U.S. history regardless of the vote. President Joe Biden has looked increasingly frail as of late. Last week, he appeared lifeless during the first Cabinet meeting in months. His wife led the meeting, which struck many as odd. Then, Biden seemed to lose track of events during a press conference with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, shouting, “Who’s next?” into the microphone.

Unless Joe Biden falls over dead or suffers a stroke that reduces him to a drooling vegetable (I know, I know), the Democratic Party will keep him in place. If they were going to dump him, either by starting 25th Amendment proceedings or convincing the real power behind the throne, Frau Doktor Professor Jill Biden, that he needs to step down to "spend more time with his family," they would have done so by now. No, they are going to string him along until January. Joe Biden's decline has been sad and pathetic for months now, and he has been growing steadily worse since he stepped away from his doomed re-election campaign — but Democrats seem willing to follow this "Weekend at Bernie's" presidency to the bitter end. Also, "the first female president" would almost certainly make such an utter hash of the job as to hurt, not help, her campaign.

Trump is targeted for assassination a third time

The first assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump was taken largely as a freak occurrence. The second attempt raised the country’s collective ears. If the next gunman’s aim is slightly better, we might not have an election at all.

Unless Trump were killed outright, a third attempt would likely help, not harm, his campaign. And even if he were killed, there would still be an election; there would be some process by which JD Vance was placed in the lead slot. The Democrats did so without any primary election; they can't complain if the Republicans did the same thing.

A vice presidential pick invites more scandal

It’s safe to say that neither campaign is entirely satisfied with its vice presidential picks — though after Tuesday’s vice presidential debate, Democrats are feeling a bit worse about theirs. Both Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) have violated the fundamental rule of running mates: do no harm.

While a VP candidate can help or harm, their influence is usually pretty minimal, unless the Veep candidate is a real basket case — like Tim Walz. As for that last sentence, that's the purest sort of horse squeeze. JD Vance has proven himself to be an unalloyed asset; he absolutely crushed Tim Walz in the one vice-presidential debate and has been a positive, fresh face for the campaign.

Another major foreign crisis

In Europe, Ukraine is hoping for a green light from Western allies to use long-range missiles to strike the Russian mainland to secure a more favorable ceasefire agreement. Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to respond forcefully to such an escalation.

In the Middle East, Israel, fresh off one of the greatest military operations in its history, is itching for a fight with Iran. Following its missile attack on Israel, it seems Iran may be happy to oblige.

In the Indo-Pacific, China’s military buildup, made with the explicit intent to “unify” with Taiwan, looms over the region. Perceived weakness and distraction in the United States could speed up Chinese President Xi Jinping’s calculus.

Another major foreign crisis can only benefit Donald Trump. Why? "Perceived weakness and distraction in the United States" says it all. Joe Biden is non compos mentis and Kamala Harris is incompetent. Neither of them is fit to lead the country in a crisis, much less a possible war. Trump, whatever else one thinks of him, is decisive and has a record of not using American power capriciously — but when he does use it, as in destroying ISIS, he does so decisively.

Finally:

Diddy saga infects one of the campaigns

Based on available information, including the poorly kept secret of Diddy’s lavish “freak-offs” that may or may not have been recorded by surveillance for the purpose of blackmailing participants, as well as the powerful company Diddy kept, it’s safe to say that anything could emerge from this horrible episode — and that both campaigns are keeping a close eye on the latest developments.

Oh, give me a break.

Honestly, none of these things are going to have much influence on the election — except those that benefit the Trump/Vance ticket. The Democrats, with their selection, have largely made their electoral bed, and now they are going to have to lie in it. None of these October surprises are likely to change the trajectory of this election at this point.

Editor's Note: This article was updated post-publication to correct the reference to the GOP ticket to Trump/Vance from Trump/Walz. Our apologies for the oversight.