Shock Poll: Two-Thirds of Americans Expect More, Not Less, Political Violence in 2024

There's always the question of how much attention we should pay to polls, especially those polls coming on the heels of a major event, when passions are still running high.

This one, though, is interesting. A YouGov poll of 4,339 Americans revealed that two-thirds of them believe that 2024 will see more, not less political violence.

They may be right. The question YouGov asked was:

Do you think the current political climate makes politically motivated violence more or less likely than normal, or the same as normal?

Sixty-seven percent replied, "More likely," 8 percent "Less likely," 10 percent "Same as normal," with 14 percent "Not Sure."

One report on the poll indicated that openly partisan respondees were more likely to see political violence being more likely:

What’s telling is that partisans — both Republican and Democrat — are more likely to think more violence is coming: 70% of GOP registrants and 69% of Democrats expect Trump may have been the first target but won’t be the last.

We should, however, view this poll with a healthy pinch of salt, and here's why: Polls that were taken, as this one was, only hours after the attempted assassination of a former President of the United States, are hitting people with a question while passions are still running high. After an event like this people can be pessimistic, and that's understandable. If this same poll is repeated a week from now, it may yield very different answers.

Even so - I predicted back in April that there would be unrest in the United States this year, and I still think it's likely.

The inflection points will be the major party political conventions and the election itself, and as we all know, the convention season is imminent; the Republican National Convention happens this week. I'm guessing that former (and likely future) President Trump will show up, hale, hearty, and energized, with a prominent white bandage on his ear; he will wear it like a badge of honor, because he's a marketing guy, and understands the power of symbols.

Meanwhile, Democrats will be scrambling to salvage what they can.

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If we do see political violence, it's going to happen around those three events. Of the three, the election will be key. If Donald Trump wins, and it's looking more and more like he will, especially after Saturday's attempt on his life, well, batten down those hatches, because these two-thirds of Americans may well be proven to be prescient.

This poll is probably exaggerating, at least to some extent. This is the polling equivalent of some obnoxious television reporter sticking a microphone in the face of someone who just lost a spouse in a horrible accident, while demanding to know "How does that make you feel?" A poll a week from now would probably be a much more accurate reflection of how many people really do see the probability of political violence.

Honestly, though? You can count me among the "More likely" respondents. Gird your loins, folks. There's still a way to go until the election - and the inauguration.