It sounds like things might be tighter than previously thought in the Nevada Senate race, where Republican Sam Brown is looking to unseat Democrat incumbent Jacky Rosen. Up until now, polls have shown Rosen with a significant lead over Brown, but reports are emerging that a last-minute ad blitz financed by Mitch McConnell's PAC may be paying off in spades for the GOP.

The big story out of Nevada thus far has been the early voting numbers, which have heavily favored Republicans. As of Sunday, the GOP held a four percent t lead over Democrats in the number of ballots that had been counted and posted. RealClearPolitics' polling average has Donald Trump with a slim one percent lead over Kamala Harris, but polling conducted by Atlas Intel on November 1 and 2 showed Trump up by six percentage points. 

Rs in Nevada did it again. They expand their lead on the last day of early voting. Compared to last night's update:

Rs 361,638 -> 393,811 (+32,173)
Ds 314,343 -> 344,539 (+30,196)

R voter lead goes from +47,295 to +49,272 (+1,977). pic.twitter.com/tDbDlTC7Gs

— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) November 2, 2024

Jon Ralston is a lefty journo who exclusively covers Nevada politics, and he puts the state of the race this way:

If Trump wins Nevada, it will be the rurals that win it for him. This is the opposite situation as we go into Election Day than what we have seen in the past: Instead of Dems building a big ballot lead, it’s the Rs in The Unicorn Year. And the question is: Can the Ds come back with mail ballots, crossover votes and making Election Day a wash?

The answer? Not if Mitch McConnell gets his way. 

Much has been made about the Democrat Party's significant fundraising leading over Republicans – Kamala Harris's campaign has reportedly raised over $1 billion so far – but McConnell's Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) has quietly been going into states and backfilling in areas where the GOP is falling short. And Nevada is one of those states.

A PAC linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) recently blitzed the state with over $6 million in new ads, with one commercial saying: "President Trump and Nevada need Sam Brown in the Senate."

According to NBC News, "It is the group's first spending in the state, marking a relatively late entry into the contest, which has been characterized so far by a split between a competitive presidential race and a more comfortable position for Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in public polling. The Senate Leadership Fund has spent tens of millions of dollars in other Senate battlegrounds in recent months. It's a sign that Republicans view Rosen's re-election race as increasingly competitive."

There's good reason for McConnell to be pouring money into Nevada, as the 2020 Senate race was won by Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by a mere 2 points, which translated to fewer than 8,000 votes. Although McConnell is stepping down as the Republicans' leader in the Senate, he clearly doesn't plan to go quietly and is determined to return control of the chamber to the GOP. Nabbing Nevada for Republicans would be the icing on the cake for McConnell, as it's the home state of his late Democrat rival, Harry Reid.

As always, proceed with caution. Early voting numbers in Nevada certainly are positive for Republicans, Donald Trump is doing well there, and Sam Brown may well benefit from his close association with the former president, but assume nothing. Get out and vote!