Optimism is soaring for Republicans in the Silver State as early voting numbers that once appeared as an anomaly now solidify into a clear trend. Although Donald Trump has never won Nevada, expectations are high that he could change that this time, potentially boosting down-ballot candidates as well.

As previously noted, the Sam Brown for Senate campaign struggled ahead of the televised debate against Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen. However, Rosen's weak response to the issue of biological men competing in women's sports—set against the backdrop of the University of Nevada-Reno women's volleyball team forfeiting their match against San Jose State—has given the Brown campaign a newfound focus and identity.

This revitalized momentum is translating into last-minute funding, including a significant $6.2 million infusion from the Senate Leadership Fund, along with a new ad campaign aimed at capitalizing on this critical issue. Notably, this is the group's first spend in the swing state.

 Senate Leadership Fund president and CEO Steven Law said in a statement:

Jacky Rosen has been a reliable vote for the Democrats’ extreme agenda and is a lackluster candidate. President Trump is doing very well in Nevada and we think Sam Brown can too.

During the debate, Rosen answered a question about the collegiate controversy by saying:

I can tell you that all student-athletes deserve to have a fair competition and a level playing field. So I support parents, coaches, and the governing leagues. They are the governing bodies. They are the experts. I believe that they are the right ones to make these decisions, not politicians. So as in every other sporting issue, we allow the governing bodies to make those decisions. I think we should do that now.

Brown responded:

Nevada, let me be clear. What we just heard was a politician say that she does not have enough knowledge on this issue to know whether or not biological males should be allowed to play in women’s sports. I will not support biological males playing in women’s sports. I was proud to stand with the University of Nevada at Reno’s women’s volleyball team on Tuesday evening as they came out and stand in a courageous act to defend their ability to have a a fair and safe and private locker rooms for their own sake. It’s sad to me when these young women are having to take a courageous stand and our politicians can’t even say that they have enough expertise to be able to weigh in on this issue. It’s shameful.

Read More:

Teams Boycott San Jose Women's Volleyball Squad With Transgender Player—Coach Blames 'Politics'

An Issue of Safety and Fairness: NV Gov. Backs Women's Boycott of Transgender Volleyball Players

The promising early voting numbers have GOP-registered voters leading the state by about 30,000 ballots as of Friday. By comparison, at the same time in 2020, Democrats led the ballot count by 40,000.  This can be attributed to GOP voter registration increases and a lack of Democrat voter enthusiasm and turnout. 

What’s happening in NV is unexpected but not complicated.

Ds were supposed to be up 40K voters and we’d wonder about independent voters and Election Day turnout.

Instead Rs are up 30K voters. Unless there’s a major shift, Trump wins NV comfortably. https://t.co/PkxnF3J4hS

— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) October 26, 2024

While Brown's team previously stated that he was polling five points behind the former president and that Trump's popularity would help carry him to victory, new polling from Senate Opportunity Fund shows Brown tied with Rosen. 

🚨 New Senate battleground poll (10/19-22) ...

NV: Sam Brown 48, Rosen 48
OH: Moreno 49, Brown 47
WI: Hovde 49, Baldwin 48

— Senate Opportunity Fund (@SenOppFund) October 26, 2024

As the Brown campaign gears up for its final push to the finish line, the women's sports issue is set to remain a focal point in Nevada. A rally in Reno featuring Riley Gaines has already had to change venues due to overwhelming demand, underscoring the importance of this topic among the electorate. Meanwhile, Republicans are solidifying their early voting lead, with no signs of a slowdown. This renewed momentum has breathed new life into the Brown campaign, positioning it for a robust challenge as Election Day approaches. The stakes are high, and the energy is palpable—Nevada could very well be a game-changer for Republicans this cycle.