With the current ceasefire agreement coming to an end in the next few hours, neither the U.S. nor the Iranian negotiating teams have departed for Islamabad. As we reported on Sunday, even though the U.S. had responded affirmatively to a second round of negotiations, the odds of the Iranians being there seemed fairly small; see US Negotiators Head Back to Islamabad, but the Iranians May Not Be There – RedState. The public position of the Iranian side was that, "Iran will not send a negotiating team to Islamabad while the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports continues and no negotiations will take place." President Trump, acting through U.S. Central Command, made it abundantly clear that the blockade was not up for negotiations; see VIDEO: USS Spruance Lights Up Iranian Blockade Runner in a Formidable Demonstration of FAFO – RedState and US Seizes Tanker Carrying Iranian Oil in Bay of Bengal, Turns Back Dozens of Ships in Strait of Hormuz – RedState. For its part, Iran claims that the original ceasefire allowed free passage of ships to and from Iranian ports and that the U.S. blockade violates that agreement; "According to state media, the ministry called the Sunday night seizure of the Touska commercial vessel an 'illegal and brutal act' that 'constitutes piracy and a terrorist action.' It said the seizure near Iran’s coast in the Sea of Oman was 'another clear breach' of the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which expires Wednesday.
ترامپ با اعمال محاصره و نقض آتشبس میخواهد تا به خیال خود این میز مذاکره را به میز تسلیم تبدیل کند یا جنگافروزی مجدد را موجّه سازد.
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 20, 2026
مذاکره زیر سایهٔ تهدید را نمیپذیریم و در دو هفتهٔ اخیر برای رو کردن کارتهای جدید در میدان نبرد آماده شدهایم.
Trump, by imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to turn this negotiating table— in his own imagination— into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering. We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield.
Vice President JD Vance, along with the negotiating team of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, was scheduled to catch a morning flight to Islamabad; instead, they were called to the White House for "consultations."
Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan for a second round of negotiations with Iran has been put on hold after Tehran failed to respond to American positions, a U.S. official with direct knowledge of the situation said Tuesday. Iran, for its part, said it had not yet decided whether to resume talks with the United States.
Earlier today, President Trump indicated that he was willing to get down to the business of killing mullahs and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps goblins rather than let negotiations drag out and be turned into a weapon used against the U.S.; see President Trump Throws Cold Water on Hopes for a Peace Agreement in Islamabad – RedState.
This leaves us with four possible scenarios.
1. Immediately after the deadline expires, the US will resume attacks on Iran.
2. Trump will extend the ceasefire agreement.
3. Iran makes last-minute concessions and asks for an extension of the ceasefire.
3. Negotiations will not take place, but instead of direct military actions, Trump will continue to pressure Iran through blockade.
I think the politics of the situation dictate that President Trump and the Iranians will let the ceasefire expire. If Iran asks for an extension after setting conditions that Trump ignored, it will acknowledge weakness. If Trump agrees to their conditions or moves the ceasefire deadline forward, it looks like he blinked, and the TACO crowd (Trump Always Chickens Out) will be out in full force. An additional problem is that it isn't at all certain who can make a decision on Iran's behalf. The fault line between the "elected" leadership and the IRGC goblins has been on public display, and a sensible person would have to expect the 65 IQ guys with guns to win the argument; see Who's Really in Charge in Iran and Why That's a Problem – RedState.
The 2028 election also looms large. If Vance leads a U.S. delegation that comes back with a solid, non-Obama-looking deal, then that is a big plus for his anticipated White House run. If he goes to Islamabad and fails to secure a deal, his reputation will suffer.
The deadline itself is something of a mystery. The most commonly reported deadline is 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, which corresponds to midnight on Wednesday, April 22, local time. President Trump has stated it ends Wednesday evening, Washington time, which would be around midnight on the evening of April 22 EDT. The Pakistani mediators have indicated a slightly different time, around 7:50 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, April 21, based on their citing 4:50 a.m. Pakistan Standard Time on April 22 as the deadline.
For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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