The early morning raid on January 3 that effectively decapitated the regime of Venezuela's illegitimate president, Nicolas Maduro, has set off a seismic shift in global politics that has yet to be felt but is already anticipated.
The big loser is Communist China. Only yesterday, Nicolas Maduro hosted a Chinese political delegation that is, as my colleague Ward Clark quipped, "wondering just what the heck they're supposed to do now." Be sure to read Hoo Boy: China Now Slams U.S. 'Blatant Force' in Venezuela Raid – RedState.
China went to meet with Maduro today to discuss joining forces, then Trump captures Maduro the same day.
— Mila Joy (@Milajoy) January 3, 2026
Savage.
In fact, the Chinese delegation is still in Venezuela.
Trump captures Maduro and sends a powerful message to Xi and China at the same time.
Savage. pic.twitter.com/xpjOOidNp3
China has invested heavily in flipping Venezuela from merely a dictatorial craphole into an active partner and ally in its campaign to encircle America.
Nearly 600,000 Chinese nationals reside in Venezuela; probably fewer than 10 percent are citizens. Most are relatively new arrivals. The Chinese population of Venezuela, according to the 2011 census, was 15,358. In 14 years, over 500,000 Chinese have appeared in Venezuela. That is a lot of laundries and restaurants. Down at the FBI office, that is what is known as a clue.
Venezuela is also an active participant in China's Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to secure China's dominance in raw materials and trade routes. Venezuela has received over $60 billion in Chinese infrastructure and energy loans (Venezuela's GDP = $82.77 billion). China provides most of Venezuela's military equipment.
And, not to put too fine a point on it, China is not a "strategic competitor," it is an enemy nation with which warfare has not yet entered the kinetic stage; see There's No Hiding It; China's Actions Say It's Planning a Preemptive Attack on the US – RedState.
In return, China gets access to the largest oil deposit on the planet and, because of sanctions, a nearly captive producer. Venezuela has recently inked a major agreement with China to export oil for processing in Chinese refineries.
Oil is China's Achilles' heel. It currently relies on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia for its supplies. In the case of Iran and Venezuela, both countries have significant clout in setting prices, as they are under numerous international sanctions.
Another potential loser is Russia. Venezuela provided port access to Russian ships whenever Russia wants to pretend that its navy is capable of operations out of sight of land; see A Russian Submarine and Frigate Visit Havana - Now Let the Panic Begin – RedState. According to a CNBC analysis:
Russia's relationship with Venezuela stands out as particularly significant and contentious for the West. For years, Russia has supported the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, playing a crucial role in bolstering the socialist government and helping it resist a U.S.-backed coup led by opposition leader Juan Guaidó in 2019.
In addition to political support, Russia has provided military and economic assistance to Venezuela. Caracas is believed to have purchased billions of dollars' worth of weapons from Russia, with the financing coming from loans granted by Russia. Furthermore, the Russian state oil company, Rosneft, has made substantial investments in Venezuela’s state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
Needless to say, the Russian investments in PDVSA will probably be lost one way or another. Absent sanctions on oil exports and with foreign, probably U.S., investment, Russian technology will be quickly outdated and abandoned. Russian weapons will also be redundant. In fact, this would be a good time to set an example for the region by having Venezuela disband its armed forces and transition to a national gendarmerie and coast guard.
One surprising loser is Iran. Iran supplies Venezuela with most of its refined oil products, like gasoline. With the stellar combo of Russian tech and Venezuelan socialist management, the Venezuelan refinery sector has essentially collapsed. Venezuela, in turn, launders money for various Iran-sponsored terror groups like Hezbollah. Venezuelan support allows Iran to maintain "naval presence" in the Panama Canal.
The Cuban regime has to be crapping itself. Not only has the U.S. military demonstrated the skill to take down Maduro, but the Trump-Hegseth-Rubio triumvirate has also shown it is willing to roll the dice on regime change operations. Before this is done, life in a federal prison may look attractive to the alternative, which would be having your head displayed on a pike. Venezuela provides Cuba with about 40 percent of its energy needs. Much of that comes from "dark fleet" tankers. For instance, the M/T Skipper, which was captured on Decerber 10 with a cargo of bootleg Venezuelan oil, had offloaded part of that to a tanker bound for Cuba before interception; see 'Dark Fleet' Tanker Seized Near Venezuela Ran Sanctioned Oil to China, Says House Committee – RedState, If the new regime in Caracas closes its ports to "dark fleet" tankers, it would be amazing if the Cuban government saw the end of 2026.
The untold story here is the impact of flipping Venezuela on the drug trade. Much of the left is crowing that the war on drugs was just a smokescreen to get Venezuela's oil because most drugs sold in the U.S. don't come from Venezuela. That is only superficially true. A friendly regime that collaborated with the Drug Enforcement Administration could force the cocaine traffic underground and allow interdiction far from the U.S. This will also have a tremendous impact on Mexican cartels by increasing their risk.
So, the potential for an epic geopolitical coup lies before us. But, as the old saying goes, "There's many a slip between the cup and the lip." Can we rely on Maduro's vice president to act in our interests? What will the Maduro loyalists do? Will the hope and possibilities be urinated away in some forlorn attempt at nation-building and IED explosions? Can the Venezuelan civil society that has been brutalized and purged of talent and ambition during thirty-plus years of rule by Hugo Chavez and Maduro rise to the challenge of regenerating itself? How will China take the loss of cheap Venezuelan oil?
2026 promises to be nothing if not interesting.
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