Welcome to the belated 130th-week edition of the Chronicles of Putin's War.
Without a doubt, the big news this week was on the political front where some anonymous figure in the White House — we don't know who it was, but I'm betting his initials were Jake Sullivan — told Politico why the Biden national security cucks are reluctant to allow Ukraine to use American weapons to strike at Russian military assets that are hitting Ukrainian cities.
At the beginning of August, a coalition of bipartisan senators organized a meeting with Sullivan. Sullivan has at various times held meetings with the senators to discuss Ukraine. But during this encounter, the delegation had one, unified message: The administration needs to change its stance now before it is too late, according to a person who was briefed on the meeting.
Their argument was similar to one they and many others, including Ukrainians, have made before. The U.S. should lift all restrictions, they say, because if it doesn’t and Ukraine loses, the administration will be known as the one that didn’t do enough when it could.
That framing has at times angered senior officials in the White House who insist Washington has done more than any other country to help support Kyiv and that it shouldn’t have to risk its own national security for Kyiv. Officials in certain corners of the administration have told the Ukrainians that the U.S. will eventually want to reset relations with Moscow and lifting the restrictions could upend those efforts.
"[T]he U.S. will eventually want to reset relations with Moscow and lifting the restrictions could upend those efforts."
Does this sound familiar?
It is hard to imagine a more juvenile and watching-Raul-the-pool-boy-roger-your-wife response than that. We nuked Japan and had a great "reset." We occupied Germany for a decade, reduced her elites to penury, and hanged about a thousand members of the former regime, and now we're staunch allies...at least until money is involved. The mindset that is afraid to offend Russia because, at some future date, it may be to our advantage to remove sanctions is guaranteed to keep Russia fighting this war.That one statement effectively undercuts and contradicts every statement by the Biden-Harris clique since this war started. That said, it is a "unified field theory" that explains the White House's actions in this war.
This article's splash obscured an equally important one coming out of Ukraine.
Amid the turmoil, the commander began his planning. “Syrsky isn’t good at political games,” says a source close to the general. “What he is good at is war.” Several scenarios were considered for an offensive push at the weakest points in the Russian line: a strike in Bryansk region in the north; a strike in Kursk region; a combination of the two; or more. The main objective was to draw troops away from the Donbas stranglehold, and to create bargaining chips for any future negotiation. General Syrsky kept his plans under wraps, sharing them only with a tight group of generals and security officials. He spoke to the president on a one-on-one basis, without his staff. The army’s intelligence did much of the reconnaissance, rather than leaving it to HUR, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, which was included only at a late stage.
Western allies were also deliberately left in the dark, claims the source. “Syrsky had two previous operations undermined by the West. One was leaked to the Russians, and on another occasion, we were instructed to abort.” Limiting communication to a need-to-know basis enabled the Ukrainians to launch their attack before the Russians grasped what was happening. “They realised something was afoot but likely assumed we would need American approval for such a daring operation.” Having been presented with a fait accompli the West did not object.
A story in Tablet made the case even starker.
The Ukrainians demonstrated remarkable operational discipline in preparing this offensive—ordinary soldiers were reportedly only informed of the battle plans the day before they were sent over the Russian border. Keeping the Americans in the dark was also key to keeping the Russian intelligence services and army from being able to prepare. “We have learned some very hard lessons from the events of the previous counteroffensive,” a highly placed member of Zelenskyy’s team informed Tablet. “Last summer we told everyone what we were going to do and we all know how that turned out. Everyone knew what we were going to do and in which location we intended to strike. There is definitely something to be learned from the Israeli example of acting first and only later explaining what you are doing.”
This operation was possible because the Ukrainians correctly surmised that Jake Sullivan's National Security Council would shop Ukraine's plans to the Russians in exchange for an unnamed draft pick at some undetermined time in the future. None of this is a shock if you've read my update. This quote is from Putin's War, Week 128. Russia Invaded.
One of the interesting things about Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast is that it was pretty obvious that the Biden national security apparatus was caught with its Depends down. You don't publicly admit you must call someone to get "clarification" about what is happening if you were told. This has overtones from other incidents. We know that the Biden national security cucks have been kept in the dark by Israel. And we know from my post last week (Putin's War, Week 127. F-16s Arrive) that Andrey Bulousov, Russia's newly minted Defense Minister, placed a personal call to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to complain about some activity Ukraine was allegedly planning.
Even after this public embarrassment and being punked by Putin for going on three years, the National Security Council remains committed to crapping its drawers.
This week marked Ukraine's 33rd year as an independent post-Soviet nation. Guests in Kiev included Poland's President, Andrzej Duda, and Lithuania's Prime Minister, Ingrida Simonyte. Duda and Zelensky seemed to have an excellent chemistry despite some of the rough spots in the relationship between the two countires.
The region also had another visitor. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Warsaw on Thursday.
Modi was in Kiev on Friday. While Modi was publicly pushing the cause of peace in Kiev, in Warsaw Duda and Modi increased defense cooperation and declared a comprehensive strategtic partnership.Keep in mind that India is one of the two major players in the "BRICS" group, and Russia is counting on it for help.
Meanwhile, Ukriane used the occasion of Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang's visit to Moscow to ensure the war was noticed.
As this plays out, Belarusian strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko is struggling for relevancy in some role other than that of Putin's MiniMe and perhaps for survival.
Last week, Lukashenko was bleating on, Putin-style, about red lines and playing the role of the Grand Old Duke of York by sending his troops to the border. This week, he was the temperate, reasonable statesman.
He rejected the idea that Russia had the troops to extend the front lines of the war.
He proclaimed the "denazification" of Ukraine to be complete and said that Putin would not use a nuke because he would find himself isolated.
At the same time, he warned the Poles not to invade Belarus, something I'm increasingly seeing as inevitable.
Lukashenko is riding a tiger, and he knows it. If any government disappears because of this war, it will be his.
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin's War, Week 128. Russia Invaded – RedState
Putin's War, Week 127. F-16s Arrive
Putin's War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card
Putin's War, Week 124. NATO Summit Meets and Putin Levels a Hospital
Putin's War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire
For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Politico-Strategic Level
Ukrainian Orthodox Church Banned, Sorta
After a long bout of angst, the Ukrainian parliament has outlawed the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. Now, Tucker Carlson, David Sacks, and many other of Putin's willing mouthpieces like to frame this as a freedom of religion issue. It isn't.
Most Ukrainians are Eastern Orthodox. That branch of Catholicism is represented by two churches: the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, headquartered in Moscow, and the Orthodox Church in Ukraine, headquartered in Kiev. The head of the UOC is Archbishop Krill, the Patriarch of Moscow. Krill is an FSB general, and many UOC priests hold commissions in the Russian military. For background, read the whole thread.
The law is not an outright ban, all parishes are given nine months to cut all ties with the Moscow church whose leader literally declared a holy war on Ukraine.
More background.
Both the Orthodox Church in Ukraine and the Protestant churches in Ukraine welcomed the new law.
This is not a religious liberty issue. Orthodox Ukrainians can still worship as they have in the past. What is outlawed is Russia using the Orthodox faith as an instrument of propaganda supporting his invasion of Ukraine. As someone famous once said, "the Constitution is not a suicide pact." Freedom to worship does not imply a hostile power using that freedom to fight the legitimate government.
Here's one of the takers.
Last week, Putin offered a safe haven to Westerners trying to escape the homosexual-pedophilic-satanist hellhole that the West is fast becoming. My colleague, Jerry Wilson, covered Putin's Fuehrerbefehl in Vladimir Putin Offers Russia As Safe Haven From Western Liberalism.
Moscow will provide assistance to any foreigners who want to escape the neoliberal ideals being put forward in their countries and move to Russia, where traditional values reign supreme, according to a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin.
Under the document, such foreign nationals will have the right to apply for temporary residence in Russia "outside the quota approved by the Russian government and without providing documents confirming their knowledge of the Russian language, Russian history and basic laws."
Applications may be based on the rejection of their countries’ policies "aimed at imposing destructive neoliberal ideals on people, which run counter to traditional Russian spiritual and moral values."
The values are listed in the foundations of Russia’s state policy in this field, while the Russian government is expected to compile a list of countries imposing unhealthy attitudes on their citizens. The Foreign Ministry has been instructed to start issuing three-month visas to such applicants as early as in September.
In February, Putin supported the idea of Italian student Irene Cecchini that Russia should ease entry rules for those who share traditional cultural and family values. The head of state agreed that each case requires an individual approach.
This is what you're thinking about.
The reality is a lot more sordid and on-brand for Russia.
This is Wilmer Puello-Mota, a pro-Trump former politician in Holyoke (MA). He is wanted for Child Pornography Possession in the state of Rhode Island. According to his lawyer, he skipped a court appearance in January 2024 and joined the Russian Army instead.
It is no secret why convicted pedophiles like Scott Ritter are some of the loudest defenders of Russia.
More Red Lines
A few weeks ago, the Polish government sent up something of a trial balloon saying it was considering providing air cover for population centers in Western Ukraine; see Putin's War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card. Russia has responded by threatening dire consequences.
Just two thoughts on this. First, Russia knows, as well as Poland, that Russia will not use a nuke against a non-nuclear nation. The political fallout from that event would crush Russia. Second, the Poles are just chomping at the bit to have a go at Russia. If Russia thinks "measures" taken against Poland will be cost-free, it is delusional.
North Korea Disapproves of the Kursk Invasion
Two weeks into the invasion, a key Russian ally finally goes on record opposing it.
Hungarian Companies Hit in New Round of Sanctions
I think the linkage between the Hungarian government's actions in carrying water for Putin and the actions of its companies is long overdue.
An Old Myth Regenerated
During the Cold War, US foreign policy in regards to the USSR had a simple principle: Bad Soviet Government and Good Soviet People. That, of course, was bullsh**. By following that silliness, we probably delayed the end of the Cold War by a decade as we tried to win over the citizens of the USSR to our way of thinking. The same thing is going on now. We're trying to create a false reality where the vast majority of the Russian people do not support the Putin regime. The fact is that it is the "good Russian people" who are sending their kids off to fight in Ukraine. Those "good Russians" are committing war crimes in Ukraine on par with those of the Wehrmacht. The "good Russians" back home support the genocide of Ukraine. Read the thread.
Public opinion polling shows that the Ukrainians are not unique in having Russians wish to genocide them.
Israel Wins at Ukraine's Expense
ISIS Prisoners Seize Control of Prison
The issue was happily resolved with no casualties among the hostages. Don't believe your lying eyes.
Russian commandos quashed a mutiny at a southern Russian prison on Friday, killing the attackers and freeing their hostages, according to the local governor.
Inmates claiming to be motivated by radical Islam and armed with makeshift knives and an explosive vest briefly took control of Penal Colony No. 19 in the southern Volgograd region, according to videos posted on social media and verified by The New York Times. The Russian prison service said four guards had been killed and three injured in the attack.
Four of the attackers were killed by snipers as the Russian commandos stormed the prison late Friday afternoon, ending the mutiny. It was unclear how many inmates had joined the revolt.
“Criminals were liquidated during a special operation to free hostages in IK-19,” Volgograd’s governor, Andrei Bocharov, said in a Telegram post, referring to the facility by its Russian initials.
No Friends, Just Interests
Chinese hackers targeted a variety of sectors of the Russian economy, including the government and the IT industry.
I find it hard to believe this did not happen with at least a wink-and-nod from the Chinese government. That would not be terribly farfetched because those two countries are not friends. In the words of Lord Palmerston, "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."
New Russian Recruiting Video Drops
Remember this video recruiting "real men" for the "Special Military Operation?"
This is what the new version looks like.Operational Level
The situation is mostly unchanged from last week. Ukraine continues to operate freely in Kursk. You can catch my update on that operation here: Russia Invaded, Week 2. State of Play.
Russian airstrikes continue to drop, some of that can be attributed to Russian aircraft being deployed out of range of Ukrainan drones and thereby reducing their sortie rates. We have experienced the longest sustained period without a massive Russian missile attack since the war began. This, by my count, 45-day drought is 35% longer than the last 34-day dry spell between February 16 and March 22, 2024. While I can only guess why this is happening, the fact is it is happening. That the invasion of Kursk hasn't provoked a missile blitz is very curious.
Combat engagements continue at a high volume, though available reports indicate these engagements involve a small number of troops.
Russian forces made multiple small gains in Donbas. The situation there is problematic for the Ukrainians, but there is no sign that the Russians have the resources to create anything more than a tactical breakthrough, even if everything goes their way.
There are signs of something happening in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where there is an OPSEC blanket over Ukrainian social media, and the Russians are talking about an offensive.
One of the subjects that we've hit on in my posts and the comments is the difficulty the Ukrainians are having in weaning themselves from the Soviet-style "lead by lying" model. There is no doubt that the Ukrainians show flashes of brilliance and operational flair that are on par with any army in the world. But sometimes, the vestiges of the old Soviet-style micromanagement surface. This is a great thread detailing the difficulties the Ukrainians face in creating a culture of responsibility and initiative in their officer corps while simultaneously building an army.
Massive Airbase Attack
The Ukrainians carried out a major drone strike against four Russian airbases as far afield as the strategic bomber base at Olenya Airbase outside Murmansk. A MiG-31 and two Il-76s were verified destroyed in a strike on Savasleyka Airbase in Novgorod Oblast. The base that was really plastered was the fighter base at Marinovka Airbase in Volgograd Oblast, some 270 miles behind the front lines.
The damage to operational aircraft and Marinovka seems minimal, but the base support facilities were clobbered.
Strange Activities in Crimea
There has been a flurry of Russian civilian and military passenger aircraft heading toward Crimea. Something is happening, but no one is sure what it means.
More on Artillery
A lot of folks pay attention to shipments of artillery ammunition, but very few look at the state of artillery tubes. I've posted on this a dozen times, but a gun tube wears out after about 10,000 rounds. Firing a million rounds of ammunition in a month means you lose dozens of guns each month to wear and tear. The results can be somewhat benign like the round hitting randomly down range because of bore wear. Or it can be more traumatic with the tube, or worse, the breach exploding. Russia has a very limited ability to make gun tubes and has to balance activities between making new guns and manufacturing new tubes for guns in the field. The Russians are dealing with the problem in the short term by stripping their artillery depots. This is the result.
Here you have
- 4 x M1955 D20 152mm towed howitzers (circa 1950)
- 6 x D30 122mm towed howitzers (1963 vintage, mostly exported to Third World)
- 1 x AZP S-60 57mm towed antiaircraft gun (circa 1950)
- 4 x M1955 D20 152mm towed howitzers
These guns are obsolescent. They will replace the losses of modern self-propelled guns. The gun tubes will have extensive wear and tear.
Russian Drone Shortage
Interesting thread on why Russia struggles to provide drones for its army.
Love the Treason
When the history of this war is written, the activities of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service, the GUR, will rate at least a couple of chapters. They carried out attacks in Moscow, and they have a solid track record in suborning Russian military personnel. A while back, they convinced a Russian helicopter pilot to defect with his aircraft. They recruited a Russian sailor in the Baltic Fleet to sabotage his ship, setting fire to a guided missile corvette before whisking him away to a press conference; see Putin's War, Week 123. F-16s Wait in the Wings, More Weapons Arrive, and the Momentum Shifts. Now, they've drawn blood. A drone pilot recruited by the HUR tossed a hand grenade into his unit headquarters and walked away. The video is of the attack.
Prisoner Exchange
Through the good offices of the UAE, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 115 prisoners. The Ukrainian prisoners were mostly captured during the first year of the war.
The Russian prisoners were nearly all conscripts captured in Kursk.
Two other notable aspects of this exchange were that the Russians made the initial move to negotiate another round of prisoner exchanges for the first time and that Russia permitted the exchange to take place on Ukraine's Independence Day.
Civilians Attacked
The sad thing is that these random attacks of purely civilian targets have become so common that we think of it as just Russians being Russian.
Reinforcements to Kursk
We don't have a geolocation for this convoy, but it gives some insight into how Russia is handling the invasion. There is no artillery or heavy equipment. The only special equipment visible are two field kitchens (0:20-0:23) and a water trailer (0:14). The convoy does not have a wrecker traveling with it. The trucks don't look like they are full (0:07, 0:17), but the troops are enthusiastically giving the "Seig Heil" to the passing vehicle. There are 13 troop-carrying trucks and six trucks with covered loads. I estimate the strength at 65 passengers. This is not going to eject the Ukrainians from Kursk, but they might hold a defensive line somewhere.
Russian Troop Shortages
There is a widespread misconception that Russia has unlimited manpower. It doesn't. Its population is about one-third that of the US, and its critical military age cohort is in a demographic trough. Russia not only has to find men for Ukraine but also for all of its military commitments by all services. It also needs police, firefighters, border troops, factory workers, and on and on. Bloomberg provides a great rundown of the problem and shows how manpower shortages are limiting Russian warfighting options.
New Weapons
Palyanitsa Jet-Powered Drone
There is a lot of uncertainty about what this weapon looks like. President Zelensky revealed its existence.
Combat Operations
Medal of Honor Stuff
This action takes place near the hotly contested area around Pokrovsk on the north edge of the now-reduced Avdiivka Salient. A Ukrainian unit calls down a DPICM strike on its own position (0:26) to force attacking Russian troops to retreat and gets exfiltrated by a Bradley (O:43).
Bradley, FTW
If you want to understand why Ukrainian troops love the Bradley, take a look at this video. The Bradley, equipped with BRAT armor, which stands for Bradley Reactive Armor Tiles and has nothing to do with Kamala Harris' stupid personal branding campaign, was hit by an anti-tank guided missile. You can see how the Bushmaster autocannon has been sheared off and the turret and adjacent hull area mangled. With any Russian vehicle built, it would have been an immediate entrant in the "turret toss" competition. The Brad's crew and infantry walked away unscathed.
Drones Against Helicopters
In my last update, I posted a mashup of Ukrainian drones attacking Russian helicopters while in flight. This is apparently much more common than I'd imagined. This is from the quasi-official Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomber.
Bizarre, Even By Russian Standards
Last week, there was an incident in which a Russian unit (again) beheaded Ukrainian prisoners of war and (again) displayed their heads in a style reminiscent of something the Golden Horde may have done.
Now, we have this.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
Ukrainian Drone Operations
In my personal opinion, this post gives away waaaaaay too much in terms of TTP. It also shows a critical failure on the part of the Ukrainian Army to do basic "real estate management." I encourage you to read the whole thing to get a feel for how Ukrainian FPV teams work and how they succeed despite the way they work.
...Perhaps the Least Preferred Technique
Removing a mine is only part of the challenge in the Russian Army
Drone Protection
Russian oil depots are showing a new variety of drone protection.
Russian tanks are also being modified to reduce vulnerability to drone attack.
The bonus in this model is that rubber sheeting is flammable.
Anti-Drone Warfare
A Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter hunts Russian drones at twilight.
Just Like Operation Fortitude, Only Smaller
Operation Fortitude was the Allied effort to deceive the Nazis about the location of the 1944 cross-Channel invasion. It involved the use of large numbers of inflatable decoys. Ukraine's use of decoys is well known; see Putin's War, Week 69. As CNN Reports the Ukrainians Have Stalled the First Breakthrough Happens – RedState and Putin's War, Week 113. US Aid Arrives Just in Time and a Russian Attack Nearly Turns Into a Breakthrough – RedState. This is another example.
An Iskander short-range ballistic missile hit this decoy.
Russian Front
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Hlyboke-Vovchansk
The line in this area appears largely unchanged, but the momentum has swung toward the Ukrainians.
This is the major Russian stronghold under attack by Ukrainian strike aircraft dropping JDAMs.
Kupyansk-Kreminna-Svatove
A Ukrainian counterattack is underway in this area. This does not mean the Russians are idle; they have made some minor gains. Over the next week, we'll be able to gain more knowledge about what is going on.
Donbas
Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka
The Russians made small advances in this area, but the line is stable.
Avdiivka
The Russians continued to make small gains here, but there are signs that the Ukrainians have finally established a coherent defense that will end the risk of a Russian breakthrough.
On the whole, I agree with the assessment by LTG Ben Hodges, former Commander of US Army Europe.
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
The lines in this area are stable, but that could be about to change. First, the Russians are pulling units from Zaporizhzhia to reinforce Kursk. Second, Russian sources are reporting a buildup of Ukrainian units and offensive action. Third, Ukrainian social media has gone dark on coverage of the area.
The question is how big an effort is possible?
While the assessment above is true, it may also be meaningless. If this force can breach Russian lines, the Russians will have to find troops somewhere to plug the hole. Assuming they want to continue the OPTEMPO in Donbas, the obvious solution is to recall the units en route to Kursk or further strip Kherson of troops.
Kherson
Something is happening on this front. Just like in Zaporizhzhia, there are Russian reports of offensive action, and Ukrainian sources have gone dark.
Right now, I think something is going on, but it is more likely Russians in a high hover based on Ukrainian commando action than a full-fledged offensive.
Attack on Russian Headquarters
This is a Ukrainian airstrike on a Russian headquarters using the French-made AASM Hammer; see Putin's War, Week 106. Putin Faces Reelection, Nuland is Out, and the Czechs Find Artillery Ammunition for details.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Crimean Ferry Sunk
This is actually something of a big deal. The Russian Army and civilian population in Crimea are sustained by the Kerch Strait Bridge, which has limited traffic capacity, and by ferries. Ukrainian attacks on the Russian Navy have destroyed most of the landing craft in the Black Sea fleet, which act as ferries as well as civilian ferries.
The Russian ferry Conro Trader, carrying 30 25-ton (18,000-gallon) tanker cars, was hit by a Ukrainian Neptun anti-ship missile.
According to my research, and I'm open to correction, Conro Trader was the only civilian Russian-flagged roll-on roll-off ship operating in the Black Sea. If so, it means that fuel shipments will have to arrive by train via the Kerch Strait Bridge.
This places all Russian military operations in Crimea and Occupied Kherson on a very short leash. And things for the civilian population will start to become unpleasant, too.
Russia
Proletarks Oil Depot, Rostov Oblast
Ukrainian drone strikes set ablaze nearly 12,000,000 gallons of fuel. A few dozen firemen have been hospitalized, and the fire is still cooking. This fuel dump supplied the Russian Army in Occupied Ukraine.
Bottom line:
Ammuntion Dump, Ostrogozhsk, Voronezh Oblast
Many reports attribute this strike to a Neptun anti-ship missile modified for land attack. We have seen this mod to the Neptun used before. President Zelensky attributed it to Ukraine's as-yet-unseen Palyanitsa jet-powered drone. The dump is about 70 miles from the front lines.
It is still exploding.
S-300 Battery, Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov Oblast
The official announcement credited the attack to "the Ukrainian Navy units in collaboration with other components of the defense forces." This could be interpreted to mean a modified Neptun anti-ship missile was used.
What's Next
This week certainly provides a lot more food for thought than the last several.
There is less and less doubt that Putin intends to contest the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk. He seems to intend to do that while keeping up the OPTEMPO in Donbas. This means the bill-payer for that strategy is the Russian Army in Occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. From the nascent Ukrainian offensive action taking shape in the Kreminna-Kupyansk area, I'm guessing that some of the units there are also on the way to Kursk. That is creating a weakness in those areas, and we seem to be seeing Ukrainian offensive action happening there. The Russians also seem to have gone dormant in their Kharkiv invasion. All of this suggests that a decision has been made to focus on 1) gaining the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk and 2) pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk. In the process, the Russians seem willing to risk a major setback in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
What happens next in Kursk will be interesting. The decision to rely on unwilling conscripts to defend Kursk never seemed like a good idea. Ukraine's decision to pack the prisoner exchange with recently captured conscripts seems like a sure way to get the word out that being captured by the Ukrainian Army is infinitely preferable to being shot.
From what I've seen of the Russian units heading to Kursk, they seem like light infantry units more suited to manning trenches than maneuver warfare. When tied to the reports of the Russians building a fortified line in Kursk, it would seem that the Russian strategy is to block the Ukrainian advance and channel it into a Russian reserve force.
Crimea is also interesting. The sinking of the Conro Trader and the removal of all Ropucha-class LSTs, at least those that haven't been sunk, makes Crimea totally reliant on the Kerch Strait Bridge for fuel. The slaughter of Russian antiaircraft missile units in Crimea hints that the Kerch Strait Bridge is on borrowed time unless Jake Sullivan intervenes.
I think the Ukrainians have at least one more week left to play in Kursk before confronting any significant Russian force. The Ukrainians will continue to give ground in the old Avdiivka Salient area because 1) the Russians don't have the forces to turn those retreats into a major advance, 2) the Ukrainian Army under Syrsky isn't going to kill troops to make a point, and 3) some of the troops there will be needed for other missions. I still consider the Kherson operation a sideshow because the terrain doesn't favor a major offensive action. I do think something is brewing in Zaporizhzhia, and we'll see what that looks like in a couple of weeks.
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